Posts

John Homenuk

4.29 AM Zones: Morning storms depart, warm weather returns

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If you were somehow able to sleep through the lightning, thunder and torrential rain this morning; well, more power to you. But for the majority of folks in our region, the strong thunderstorms which moved through the region in the pre-dawn hours were a rude wakeup call. The event was, nevertheless, quite impressive by overnight thunderstorm standards! A frontal boundary near the area helped to enhance lift for storms to develop as the moved through the area.

Even during the overnight hours, occasionally, these fronts can serve as highways for thunderstorms to travel. Elevated instability (slightly aloft in the atmosphere, instead of at the surface as it often is during the daytime) helped to maintain the storms development while favorable shear (50kts) aided in thunderstorm maintenance. All things considered, we were lucky this event didn’t come during the day; the presence of an elevated mixed layer would have nearly guaranteed a significant severe thunderstorm event if surface instability was more prevalent.

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John Homenuk

2.18 Evening Zones: Mild for now, cooler early next week

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Mild weather has built into the area over the past several hours and will continue to remain prevalent throughout the region over the next 24 hours as well. Mid level ridging will continue to build into the region with atmospheric heights rising over the next several hours. All of this is thanks to a collapsing ridge on the West Coast of the USA, which is shifting over the Central and Eastern USA today.

Temperatures this afternoon rose into the middle and upper 50’s throughout much of the region, and even the lower 60’s throughout parts of Southern and Central NJ. Parts of Delaware and the Mid Atlantic, including the beaches, reached the 70 degree mark this afternoon! This warmth is extremely impressive for this time of year.

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John Homenuk

Warmup with showers, storms on Friday

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Despite a large mid level ridge, a backdoor cold front made any semblance of warmth exceptionally fleeting over the past few days. Thursday will be no exception, as east and northeasterly winds keep low clouds socked in with showers and drizzle dominating the forecast. Meanwhile, across the Central United States, a powerful cold front has begun its trek east from the Plains and will eventually end up in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday and early Friday. Severe weather will be possible throughout the Central United States today.

For our area, this signals two things: The end of any potential above average regime, and the likelihood of an increased southerly flow right ahead of the front. The latter of the two will be most important, as east/northeasterly winds will swing around to southerly on Friday. This will help to scour out the backdoor cold front and allow warmer air to surge northward from the Mid Atlantic States into parts of Southern New England. Temperatures will rebound, into the 60’s and potentially 70’s in much of New Jersey.

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John Homenuk

Backdoor cold front season is here, what’s the deal?

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Each spring we emerge from a long cold winter with aspirations of 70 degree temperatures, a cool breeze and plenty of sun.  It rarely works out that way. Whether it be an upper level low, a stalled cold front, or a backdoor frontal boundary there are plenty of meteorological events that often are to blame for a colder and damp spring in this area. The fact of the matter is, our location during a transition season (fall, spring) is a difficult place to be. The changing and morphing wavelengths of the mid and upper level ridges and troughs mean the potential for cutoff lows, and the colder ocean waters this time of year especially will wreak havoc on any warmup.

This week, we will once again revisit the science behind a backdoor cold front. A significant low pressures system is forecast to develop through the Central United States during the middle part of this week, with the severe weather possible from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. Meteorology tells us that a warm front should be surging north from the Mid Atlantic states into New England as this low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes, with southerly winds ramping up warm air south of the  front. But where is the warm front, and why hasn’t it made progress north? The answer lies in the setup both aloft and at the surface, and it leads to the development of a backdoor front which will push the warm air back to our south during the middle part of the week.

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