Posts

John Homenuk

Windy, cooler behind major cold front

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An energetic and powerful storm system moved through the Central and Eastern United States on Sunday, causing widespread severe weather. More than 50 reported tornadoes and 500 reports of damaging winds were received by the Storm Prediction Center behind powerful severe thunderstorms throughout the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The cold front moved quickly eastward through the Northeast states, bringing strong thunderstorms through the NYC Metro area just after 430am on Monday morning. Gusty winds were observed at many reporting stations as the storms moved through.

Monday will be a day of change to start the new work week, as the aforementioned cold front slides off the coast. Westerly winds will begin in earnest, gusting over 25 miles per hour at times during the day on Monday. Warm sun will allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 50s, but the airmass aloft will be rapidly changing. Dropping humidity and strong winds will be the first signs of the change. By Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, temperatures will fall into the 30s (colder inland). Highs on Tuesday will only reach into the 40s.

Severe weather reports (Tornado, Wind, Hail) from Sunday through early Monday morning.

Severe weather reports (Tornado, Wind, Hail) from Sunday through early Monday morning.

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Unsettled, cooler pattern not far away

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Despite the fact that pleasant weather has essentially dominated late summer and Autumn thus far, the pattern of late has trended a bit more unsettled. This is fairly typical for this time of year, as the first signs of wavelength changes are beginning to be seen in the atmospheric pattern and jet stream. However, a more dramatic pattern change is being forecast by most models in the medium range — with noticeable wave amplification throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In the short term, unsettled weather will begin to impact the area as early as Wednesday with a weak system meandering offshore beginning to back towards a coast slightly. Another frontal system back to our west will eventually approach and cross the area around mid-week, bringing in the first of several shots of cooler air.

NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.

NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.

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John Homenuk

Tuesday begins transition into cooler pattern

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Meteorological Autumn began September 1st with a warm, humid and unsettled weather pattern. Now, after just a few days, some significant changes are on the way. A cold front is shifting eastward off the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast early this Tuesday morning, with some isolated showers and thunderstorms (one severe-warned storm on Long Island) possible on the Island and into Southern New England. For the rest of the area, a cloudy and drizzly start will give way to clearing skies by later this afternoon, as well as lowering humidity. The front is being driven off the coast by a mid level disturbance over the Great Lakes, which will be shunted eastward by another stronger disturbance over Southeast Canada. This feature will become important for us by later this week, as it ushers in a very cool airmass.

NAM model's forecast temperatures at the 850mb level in the Northeast US this coming Friday morning. Notice the values near or below zero over New England, and cold values extending as far south as NYC.

NAM model’s forecast temperatures at the 850mb level in the Northeast US this coming Friday morning. Notice the values near or below zero over New England, and cold values extending as far south as NYC.

A mid level ridge spike over the West-Central United States will allow a cutoff low over Eastern Canada to drop east-southeast, and the core of a cool airmass will clip the Northeast US later this week. Forecast models are indicative of 850mb temperatures dropping into the single digits by Thursday and Friday, with near or below 0 C readings over New England. Pleasant weather is expected, with plenty of sun, but it will certainly feel like autumn late this week.

Forecast high temperatures this week begin in the 80’s (Tuesday), but fall into the 70’s by Thursday and Friday, with overnight lows falling dramatically Thursday Night and early Friday morning, when some interior locations could fall well into the lower 40’s. With that said, the forecast looks pleasant with minimal rain chances moving forward.

John Homenuk

Nor’easter, cooler air, and the latest on Dorian

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A weakened frontal boundary settled off the Mid Atlantic coast will serve as a highway for a developing low pressure system today. Despite being weak and progressive, the Nor’easter will shift from the Mid Atlantic coast to a position near or off of Cape Cod through Friday. The result, in terms of sensible weather, for our area? More clouds, a cooler northerly flow, and a chance of showers especially along the coast.

The cooler temperatures, clouds and dew points that settled into the area on Thursday have created quite a stir throughout the meteorological community. Not without reason, thought as temperatures fell into the 40’s in much of the interior Northeast early Thursday morning. Parts of elevated New England saw temperatures drop into the upper 30’s! (Just a reminder, it’s July 24th).

After the system shifts northeastward this weekend, temperatures should rebound more towards normal with highs in the low to middle 80s. Conditions look to become more pleasant, with the return of more sun, by this weekend as well.

Dorian still chugging westward: Tropical Storm Dorian, which formed officially Wednesday morning, continued to move west through the Atlantic on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds increased slightly to 60mph, and the system remained compact and small but rather well organized.

Major questions still exist in regards to the eventual track and intensity of Dorian as she shifts west. Forecast models agree that a large and expansive Atlantic Ridge will remain in place. But the important feature, instead of the ridge itself, will be the periphery of the said ridge — as the center of Dorian will likely slide along its fringes. Model guidance indicates that the system may have a slightly higher than normal chance of impacting the US Coast as she is forced west into the Southwest Atlantic and then may potentially recurve northward around the west side of the ridge.

Intensity forecast continue to remain mostly meager on forecast guidance through the next 3-5 days, with most models keeping Dorian at moderate Tropical Storm levels. Increased wind shear by Day 3 may hinder further development of the system as it shifts west — adding further uncertainty to the forecast.

As always, stay tuned over the next few days. Despite the fact that the system is several days away from potentially impacting land, we will continue to provide updates both on our web page and social media outlets.