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Public Analysis: Heavy Rain Exits, Calm Weather Sets In

July 7, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening!

After a relatively calm few days, the area of low pressure that developed along the leftover stalled frontal boundary this morning sparked numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms that tracked over eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and portions of Connecticut. Deep tropical moisture ahead on the order of about 2.3″ of PWATs allowed for the overall complex to contain very intense rain rates, upwards of two inches per hours in some locations! To make matters worse, these storms were chugging along with a weak low level flow, so areas of heavy rain were rather slow and this allowed for some spots to experience flash flooding in areas of poor drainage. As the dynamics began to really ramp up as the low pressure intensified, some gusty winds began to be reported with a few embedded storms that tracked through northern New Jersey and into Long Island. There were some reports of small tree limbs being taken down with localized power outages, but due to the time of day, lack of greater instability, and weak mid level winds, these gusts luckily weren’t anything too serious.

As the low moved off the coast and began to intensify some more, the area of rain associated with the low began to accelerate, and this is what likely saved the area from seeing much higher rainfall totals that would have caused more widespread flooding. The rain gradually tapered off as the low pulled away and some more dry low level air worked its way in behind the system, which finally allowed for conditions to calm down. The cloudy, tropical air-mass gave way to mostly sunny skies, which allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 70’s and lower 80’s across the entire area, with light westerly winds. With daytime heating taking place, instability was able to build back to limited values, which promoted the development of some more showers and thunderstorms to our North and West this evening. These showers will gradually slide east/east southeast and likely diminish in intensity as the sun fades, and with it-the fuel they need to survive. The main threat with these storms will be some additional, brief heavy rain, but these storms will be moving at a decent pace, so the overall flood threat is low. Some patchy fog should develop this evening and into tomorrow morning as an inversion in the atmosphere traps the leftover humid airmass. With the inversion in place, lows should be quite mild with most of the area seeing temperatures in the mid 60’s to lower 70’s.

This afternoon/evenings latest regional radar mosaic, surface weather plots, and high resolution visible satellite imagery of the Northeast. showing the remnants of this mornings system exiting to the east.

Saturday looks to start off rather clear despite some areas of patchy fog, which should quickly burn off as the morning progresses. This should allow skies to become mostly sunny, with some spotty clouds as we head into late afternoon. To our north and west, a large mid level trough will be progressing east with a disorganized piece of energy. As the energy from this trough nears the area by the afternoon hours, the leftover tropical airmass and sunshine will allow instability to build to modest levels, with some decent wind shear allowing for the potential of muti-cell thunderstorms to develop over the area. With the upper level jet streak and greatest energy for storm development located to our north over New England, the main focus for storms looks to be over that region, but we expect scattered development at the most, with the main threat being gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rains.

Otherwise, the afternoon will likely be a hot and humid one as temperatures likely reach into the upper 80’s and even to lower 90’s across the region. The area should gradually dry out during the late afternoon hours and early evening hours as the cold front to our west begins to push through. As the front moves through tomorrow evening, the humidity should drop a bit as more stout westerly winds develop, so it should be quite pleasant with lows dropping down into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

Sunday will likely be a good deal quieter than the previous day as the cold front moves well to our east and the dry air to the west really begins to work its way into the area. A surface high to the south will begin to build, which will likely allow for mostly sunny skies and low dew points. The overall drier atmosphere will work to negate any threat for afternoon thunderstorms over the entire area. High temperature s on Sunday should be near-normal, with highs likely reaching into the lower 80’s across the entire area. Sunday evening should also continue the theme of being rather calm, with clear conditions and light winds expected, lows should be able to drop into the upper 50’s area-wide.

This evenings Rapid Precision Model showing the development of some afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow, followed by clearing conditions in time for the evening hours (Courtesy of WSI)

Extended Range

A strong heat ridge is expected over Western/Central parts of United States this weekend and into early next week. This will support a more longwave trough over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast with temperatures closer to normal overall. There are some timing differences on model guidance currently with individual disturbances embedded within the longwave trough could still produce some isolated-scattered convection over the region. But much of the time, just warm and dry with some sunshine each day, as high pressure gradually builds in from the Ohio Valley.

Later in the week, we may have another infusion of deep tropical moisture into the area, with increasing temperatures. Whether or not we see another period of heavy rain will be highly dependent on if we have a trigger mechanism to set off any showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the chance for anything outside of afternoon thunderstorms seems low, and a general increase in both temperatures and humidity seems likely at the very least. We will continue to monitor this period in case anything does try to take shape.

This afternoons ECMWF model showing near-zonal flow across the country, with the main weather features located in the central regions of Canada. (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Public Analysis: Relatively Cool and Unsettled Memorial Day Weekend Likely

May 26, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening and Happy Friday!

The area of low pressure that was previously located over the Ohio Valley during the day Thursday that brought moderate to heavy rainfall over much of the area, died off as was forecast back on Monday, while a more powerful and impressive area of low pressure began to develop off of the New Jersey coastline late last evening due to strong upper level energy rounding the base of a large trough located over the Mid-Atlantic coast. This secondary area of low pressure brought more steady rain overnight, especially for locations north and east of New York City. As this system began to wrap up and move along the coast, it brought some lingering showers this morning and through portions of the afternoon, many of which were light to moderate in nature.

These residual showers were mainly fueled by the very cool upper level temperatures high up in the atmosphere, combined with clearing skies which lead to surface heating. As some locations began to see prolonged periods of sun and as their temperatures rose, that warmer air near the surface began to quickly rise into the cooler upper levels, which caused that warm to quickly condensate, and form cumulus clouds, with some isolated showers. As the low pressure off of the New England coast began to move away late this afternoon, it began to draw in more dry air from Canada which helped to mitigate any widespread shower development. These Northwesterly winds also ushered in a new Canadian air-mass that allowed temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70’s across much of the region, which made it feel quite pleasant compared to the past few days.

As we progress into the evening hours, the vertical temperature gradient will begin to level off, and when combined with drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, this should make for rapidly diminishing clouds. Light Northwesterly flow, a new dry air-mass from Canada, and clear skies will be quite favorable for any leftover surface heat to rapidly radiate back into the atmosphere, which is what is often referred to as “radiational cooling”. This should allow temperatures to quickly dip into the 50’s for urban and coastal sections, with 40’s possible for locations removed from the coast.

Latest regional radar mosaic, surface temperatures, offshore winds, showing a rather pleasant evening with showers located mainly to the north of the area

Saturday Into Sunday

As we head into the Memorial Day Weekend tomorrow, a very weak area of high pressure associated with some increasing upper-level heights will be moving over the region during the early morning hours. This should promote a rather sunny start to the day with some wispy, high clouds likely. Then as we progress into the late morning and early afternoon hours, clouds will likely begin to increase as a weak disturbance from the remnants of a thunderstorm complex over the Ohio Valley will be working its way towards the region.

Moisture and instability will be lacking quite significantly due to the renewed dry Canadian air-mass, so only isolated-scattered showers will be possible with this system as it moves through during the late afternoon hours. Regardless, highs will likely be able to climb into the low 70’s once again, but if the disturbance coming in from the Ohio Valley happens to be stronger, it will have more clouds and showers accompanying it, which may limit tomorrows highs to the upper 60’s. Tomorrow evening will likely be another cool and clear evening as another weak area of higher heights builds over the region, allowing for more radiational cooling, which will support lows dropping back into the 50’s for locations closer to the coast and New York City, with 40’s once again possible for locations away from the coast.

Sunday looks to start off the day with a mixture of sun and clouds and the weak area of ridging that approaches our area begins to strengthen and bring in more dry air into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. With this area of ridging overhead, winds will likely be coming from the relatively cool Atlantic, which should really work in tandem with the increased cloud cover to cap off high temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s for coastal locations, which may be under the influence of thicker cloud cover and a more stiff easterly wind. Inland locations may be able to see a good deal of sun mixing with clouds, therefor highs in the lower to mid 70’s appear likely at this time. Then as we move into the evening hours, clouds should begin to increase as the entire region begins to feel the full effects of the maritime air-mass working its way westward from the coast. The increased cloud-cover will likely limit lows into the mid to upper 50’s for Sunday evening.

The high-resolution Rapid Precision Model showing increasing clouds and the potential for some showers during the afternoon on Saturday. The timing will be crucial in determining how warm the high temperatures area (Valid 12:30pm Saturday)

Memorial Day Monday

As we talked about earlier in the week, the Memorial Day Monday forecast looks to be highly dependent on an upper level trough diving south through Canada late in the day Sunday. This upper level trough will cause the ridging that provided the region with mainly dry conditions to eventually break down by the morning hours on Monday. In response, a surface low will begin to track from Missouri and into the Great Lakes region late in the evening Sunday. This afternoons latest model guidance shows that as this low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, a warm front will begin to lift into the area by the very early morning hours on Memorial Day, which should begin to increase cloudiness quite substantially and bring the threat for some showers and possibly even a thunderstorm. Moisture will also be increasing as the front begins to push northwards, so some of these showers and isolated thunderstorms may contain locally heavy downpours, but no organized severe weather is expected due to poor timing, lack of strong instability, and disjointed dynamics.

As we get deeper into the day, the forecast becomes quite a bit more uncertain with regards to how much farther north the warm front will move, if at all. As we have seen numerous times this year that these fronts can be very fickle and tough to nail down outside of twenty-four hours due to the fact that these fronts can bring very warm temperatures and sun to the south of the boundary, and cool and cloudy conditions to the north of the warm front, with the gradient sometimes being quite sharp.

This afternoons individual GFS ensemble members showing a very wide range of possibilities regarding the positioning of key frontal boundaries

However, at this time we are leaning towards the warm front making its way over the region quicker than the models have it doing so, and the antecedent cold front from the low in the Great Lakes also moving through quicker, leaving the area with warmer temperatures in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s and some clearing of the cloud cover will also possible during the afternoon. This forecast will likely need to be tweaked as we approach Monday, especially regarding any precipitation potential, so make sure to check back for more details!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great holiday weekend!

Steve Copertino

5.18 Late-AM Zones Update: More Heat and Isolated T-Storms Possible into Friday

May 18, 2017/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning! More summer-like weather continues today. It will be hotter in many areas, than on Wednesday. 850mb temperatures around 17░C to 19C with southwest winds will support highs in the lower and middle 90s, away from the coast today. More record highs will likely be set again across the region. Humidity will be higher, but not oppressive. Sea-breezes will keep coastal areas, such as Long Island and NJ shore cooler again today. But even these areas temperatures may reach the 80s, with a stronger southwest flow today.

Public Analysis: Brief Taste of Summer, Cooler Conditions Likely This Weekend

May 17, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Afternoon!

Earlier this week we mentioned that there was a strong likelihood that much of the area would be seeing temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80’s, and possibly 90’s starting today. This has indeed turned out to be true, with many stations this afternoon reporting highs in the lower 90’s across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Tomorrow looks to be even warmer, with highs possibly reaching the mid 90’s by lunchtime tomorrow. However, this heat looks to be short-lived as another cool shot from Canada will likely bring temperatures back down to seasonable levels by this weekend!

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Due to the rather clear and calm conditions over the area last evening, most locations were able to drop down into the lower 50’s and upper 40’s during the early morning hours today, which made for a cool start to the day for anyone who was active before today’s sunrise. After sunrise, the clear and calm condition’s allowed temperatures to shoot up into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s across the entire region, with locations in Long Islands and coastal Connecticut seeing lower temps due to southerly winds coming off the of the cooler Atlantic ocean. This was quite the impressive rebound, and the 40+ degree rise in temperatures this afternoon actually helped a few record highs get surpassed, with LaGuardia Airport(NY), Monticello (NY), Danbury (CT), Hartford (CT), and Belmar (NJ) all beating their daily high temperatures. The rest of the afternoon should continue to be quite warm and pleasant, with the sea-breeze likely working its way deeper into portions of New Jersey, Southeastern New York, and Connecticut.

Later this evening, temperatures should stay relatively mild as the humidity begins to increase as a subtropical high pressure system off of the southeast coast continues to move eastward and pump up moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. Clouds may begin to increase during the evening, as increasing high-level clouds were noted on the latest visible satellite imagery. Overnight lows should remain in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s across much of the area, with the exceptions of coastal communities, which may see lows in the middle 50’s due to continued southerly winds blowing in from the cooler Atlantic.

Latest visible satellite, surface temperatures, offshore buoy data, and regional radar mosaic showing very warm temperatures over the area this afternoon. Also note the cooler temperatures over Long Island and Connecticut due to the southerly winds from the Atlantic

If today wasn’t a good enough taste of summer for you, then tomorrow will likely deliver what you desire. While we may see some overcast and broken clouds over coastal areas tomorrow morning due to the southerly winds and enhanced moisture in the lower-levels, these clouds will likely break up quite quickly during the early afternoon hours. With low-level temperatures already quite warm, clear skies, and great southerly flow, tomorrow looks to be on track to hit the upper 80’s to low 90’s across much of the area tomorrow. Some portions of Northeastern New Jersey and Connecticut may even see highs in the mid 90’s, while coastal areas of NJ, NY, and CT see cooler temperatures overall, especially once the sea-breezes begin to set in. With temps in the lower to mid 90’s, tomorrow has a high chance of breaking quite a few daily high temperature records, even more so than today did. These warm and humid conditions will likely remain well into Thursday evening, as the model guidance over the past few days has really delayed the timing of the next cold front. Expect lows to range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s across much of the area (excluding coastal locations)

With the increasingly humid and hot conditions expected to persist into tomorrow afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued an Air Quality Alert for the entire region. Sensitive individuals including the very young, the elderly, and persons with respiratory diseases such as asthma, should avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the afternoon and early evening hours.

High resolution North American Model showing highs in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s tomorrow afternoon (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

Friday Into This Weekend

Friday will likely be warm, but not quite as warm as Wednesday (today) or Thursday were. Winds should begin to shift to more of a westerly direction during the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front located in Northern New York. However, it is likely that this cold front may take its time reaching the area, and with clear skies and southwesterly/westerly winds temperatures should easily reach into the mid 80’s across most of the region. Even though temperatures will remain rather warm, we should begin to see the humidity really drop off as the front ushers in drier Canadian air. Temperatures will gradually begin to fall off as the front should move through the area by late Friday afternoon or early evening. As this front drops southward through the area, temperature will drop into the more seasonable levels, with a more pronounced northwesterly wind developing.

It is worth noting that there is a potential that they delayed timing of the frontal system on Friday may allow instability to build up enough to the point that we may see isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. However, due to the dynamics that would allow the shower and thunderstorms to grow and become more widespread remaining concentrated to the northwest, it seems unlikely that any organized activity will be likely during the day on Friday.

High pressure coming from Canada will begin to move in during the evening hours on Friday, bringing a rather substantial change in air-masses. As the high pressure moves to our north on Saturday afternoon, cooler and drier conditions are likely to persist throughout the day as a more moderate maritime air-mass replaces the warm tropical air-mass that has been over our area. Highs will likely remain in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s across the entire are, with the exception of coastal locations on both Saturday and Sunday. Lows for both days will likely be quite cooler, reaching down into the mid to low 50’s once again. These temperatures will be quite a change, with highs being 12-15 degrees below-normal. Overall, it looks like a much more pleasant and seasonable weekend is on tap, so make sure to enjoy it!

This afternoons European model showing the potential for a pretty large-scale pattern change, with a deep trough located in the east for the middle half of next week and beyond

The next rain threat looks to be on Monday as some showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two will be possible as another cold front associated with an area of low pressure will be moving through the Northeast.

This afternoons model guidance suggests that the negative NAO will once again flex its muscles, allowing for a large trough to dig into the central portion of the country and gradually progress eastward next week. This will help to once again create a stronger chance at below-normal temperatures and even the threat for a significant precipitation in the long-range as blocking continues to take shape over Atlantic Canada.

Some pleasant, warmer or drier weather could still return at times, as synoptic features in pattern still shuffle around somewhat. But no prolonged heat is expected. Make sure to stay tuned as we get closer to Memorial Day and begin to get a grasp of what may be on the table for the holiday weekend!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

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