Posts

John Homenuk

PM Update: Freeze Warning in effect for many areas tonight

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On the heels of a strong cold front which moved through the area yesterday, cold air both aloft and at the surface has settled into the region today. This air is unseasonably cold, in fact, with mid level temperatures several degrees below normal and surface temperatures only topping out in the lower 50’s this afternoon in many locations throughout the area. The cold air aloft even aided in some snow and graupel showers throughout the area during the afternoon today.

Nevertheless, tonight will be a cold one. Forecast models are in good agreement on mid level temperatures falling to even colder levels tonight than they did today. At the 850mb level, for example, models suggest temperatures will fall to near -10 C later tonight. That is a value much more common in the middle of winter, and not often seen in late April.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: First frost, freezes likely tonight

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A chilly new airmass will push into the area this evening behind a coastal storm system, which is currently scooting east and northeast of our area. A few showers moved along the coasts of New Jersey and New York this morning and afternoon, but are expected to move northeastward and stream into Southern New England tonight. As the system shifts northeast, stiff west-northwesterly winds behind it will usher in a cold airmass with 850mb temperatures falling from around 2 C this afternoon to anywhere between -4 and -6 C by Thursday.

The National Weather Service has issued Freeze Warnings from 2:00-9:00am Thursday in Sussex Co (NJ) and Frost Advisories for Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen (NJ) Rockland, Putnam (NY) and Fairfield, New Haven (CT). Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees warmer in the city, falling to the lower 40’s. The growing season may end tonight in many interior areas — and will have another chance to do so Thursday Night into Friday, where low temperatures are expected to be even a few degrees colder.

NAM model forecasting low temperatures in the upper 20's to lower 30's in the interior Wednesday Night into Thursday morning.

NAM model forecasting low temperatures in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s in the interior Wednesday Night into Thursday morning.

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Potential for Late Season Freeze

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One of the coldest springs in recent history nationwide continues to roll forward with the potential for one more shot of winter across the Mid-west and Northeast. Since February 1st, we have seen a dramatic reversal in temperature anomalies from the blowtorch Dec-Jan period to the very cold Feb-Mar-April of 2013. The only mild areas have been northeastern New England and the SW US – all other locations have been feeling the chill. The epicenter of this cold has been the Mid-west and northern Plains, where many stations experienced over a 20 degree decrease in mean temperature from March 2012 to March 2013:

Last3mTDeptUS

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Chicago  IL:    -27.7º

2012: 64.0º

2013: 36.3º

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Des Moines IA: -26.0º

2012: 64.4º

2013: 38.4º

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Indianapolis IN: -25.3º

2012: 66.5º

2013: 41.2º

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[column size=”one-fourth” last=”true”]

La Crosse WI: -27.5º

2012: 59.4º

2013: 31.9º

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[column size=”one-fourth”]

Marquette MI: -24.3º

2012: 50.6º

2013: 26.3º

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Milwaukee WI: -26.3º

2012: 59.1º

2013: 32.8º

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Minneapolis MN: -25.2º

2012: 56.3º

2013: 31.1º

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St. Louis MO: -22.1º

2012: 70.4º

2013: 48.3º

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The month of May began with similar magnitude of cold in the same areas that have been targeted over recent months. Brutal, recording breaking cold encompassed the Plains, with the historic event of snow flakes flying as far south as Arkansas. The coastal Northeast has been near normal with a northeasterly flow off the Atlantic, but surface high pressure made the airmass a beautiful, dry, sunny one for us. The interior Northeast and OH Valley have been much warmer the past week, though that will change for a time next week.

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