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Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Above Normal Temperatures and Thunderstorm Threats Return for the Holiday Weekend

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Good Evening! 

Today was yet another beautiful day across the Northeast due to a weak area of high pressure to our south bringing in low humidity, mild temperatures, and light southerly winds for the entire region. Highs today were generally limited to the low to upper 70’s across our area due to cooler temperatures aloft associated with a deep area of mid level toughing located just to our north. As we get deeper into the evening hours across the area, high altitude cirrus clouds should begin to move in from the west, signaling the beginning of another pattern change. With clear skies, low dewpoints, and light winds from the west, conditions will be near-perfect for radiational cooling to take place, so expect low tonight to fall into the middle 50’s to low 60’s across the area, with some locations well-removed from the coast possibly sinking into the low 50’s during the early morning hours.

This afternoon/evenings latest high-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and regional radar mosaic, showing relatively calm and mild conditions for your Wednesday evening.

Thursday is looking more like a rather large step in the direction of above-average temperatures for the entire region as mid level ridging to our south and east begins to build northward over our area, especially during the afternoon hours. The same high pressure that provided the area with extremely comfortable weather over the past few days will begin to turn on us by directing winds from the south and southeast. This will lead to much higher dewpoints overtaking the tri-state area, which will lead to a muggier feel for tomorrow. In addition to the increasing humidity, rising heights will also allow mid level temperatures to rise significantly. The combination of warm mid level temperatures, a muggier airmass, and southerly winds will lead to high temperatures likely reaching all the way into the middle to upper 80’s tomorrow with some potions of Notheastern New Jersey and southern New York state likely seeing temps pass that 90-degree mark.

In lieu of all this warmer weather, a pretty tight pressure gradient will set up shop over the area as the aforementioned high pressure system begins to move off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes Region continues to gradually move north and east. This will likely increase winds to around 15-25 miles per hour, with gusts likely reaching into the 30-40 mph range during the day. Some isolated wind gusts will be capable of taking small twigs off of trees and blowing around lawn furniture. Additionally, this strong southerly flow may be able to limit just how warm south-facing shores of Long Island and Connecticut can get tomorrow if the winds kick in during the early afternoon hours as opposed to later in the day.

Later tomorrow evening, increasing mid level moisture as well as the enhanced southerly flow should create some increased cloudiness, with any chance at some showers limited to the far northern regions due to a total lack of forcing for any kind of thunderstorm development. Tomorrow evening will be quite warmer than Wednesday evening as temperatures are only likely into the middle to upper 60’s, with some 70 degree low temperatures possible in the more insulated locations.

This evenings North American Model showing relatively high wind gusts tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours due to an increasing pressure gradient overhead. Please refer to the NWS for any potential Wind Advisory's tomorrow

This evenings North American Model showing relatively high wind gusts tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours due to an increasing pressure gradient overhead. Please refer to the NWS for any potential Wind Advisory’s tomorrow

Friday looks to be yet another warm and borderline hot day as mid level ridging continues to build over the area. With the high pressure firmly off of the Mid Atlantic coast by this time, winds from the south should continue to usher in very warm and moist air in the lower levels of the atmosphere that will push a frontal system well to our north. With this frontal system located to our north, any potential pieces of energy that will be capable of triggering any shower and thunderstorms will also remain north of our area during the day. Regardless, Friday will likely be another increasingly muggy and warm day with mostly sunny skies leading to highs in the upper 80’s, and possibly even 90 once again for portions of New Jersey and southern New York. Friday evening looks to be a warm, but bearable one as humidity decreases ever so slightly, but temperatures will likely remain in the low to middle 70’s for lows.

As of now, it appears that the more unstable day appears to be on Saturday as a frontal system associated with some energy from an approaching mid level trough over the Great Lakes region heads eastward. Saturday will also likely feature rich tropical moisture, increasing instability, and some improved wind fields that will be necessary for thunderstorm development towards the afternoon hours. While the thunderstorm threat will definitely need to be revisited on Friday, there does seem to be support from the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF for this scenario. Anyway, Saturday will likely feature mostly sunny condition’s, with increasing clouds towards the afternoon hours once again. Highs will likely be able to eclipse Fridays highs, with 80’s and lower 90’s looking possible.

Sunday also looks to be rather unsettled with increasing cloudiness and an enhanced threat of showers and thunderstorms as yet another lobe of energy rounds the base of the trough located in southern Canada. This lobe of energy will send off some energy through the Ohio Valley, which will act as a trigger and potential development zone for precipitation during most of the day. Due to the enhanced clouds, Sunday will likely be only slightly cooler than the previous two days, with highs likely reaching into the mid 80’s.

This afternoons European model showing yet another possible Canadian disturbance dropping southward and potentially increasing the threat for showers and thunderstorms for the later half of the holiday weekend (Courtesy of AccuweatherPro)

This afternoons European model showing yet another possible Canadian disturbance dropping southward and potentially increasing the threat for showers and thunderstorms for the later half of the holiday weekend (Courtesy of AccuweatherPro)

Drier conditions appear possible for Monday as a subtle mid level ridge builds in behind the weekend system, but this afternoons model guidance has been hinting at the potential for another system to work its way in and potentially provide another chance for some showers and thunderstorms on the 4th of July. We will have a full update on the Holiday Weekend and beyond on Friday afternoon!

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Calm and Cool Conditions Gives Way to Hot and Stormy By Friday

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Good Evening! 

We had a rather wild Saturday morning this past weekend as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy stormed through the area along with a rather strong cold front. All of the deep tropical moisture and forcing from Cindy and the cold front allowed a rather impressive line of torrential rain and embedded thunderstorms to move through the area early on Saturday morning. This area of heavy rain did bring some flooding to locations as rainfall rates increased to over one inch per hour, but also brought some extensive wind damage, along with two confirmed tornadoes in Monmouth county, New Jersey! After the cold front moved through, we saw a much direr air mass take over yesterday, which has persisted through the day today, and should last another 48 hours. Afterwards, it appears that a large area of high pressure will form just off the East Coast and looks to bring above normal temperatures back to the region, with the addition of another muggy air-mass and the threat of some strong thunderstorms towards the end of the week.

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This Evening Into Tomorrow

As mentioned, today was a very pleasant day with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and cooler temperatures thanks to a rather moderate and dry air mass in place over the region. High temperatures were able to stick into the mid to upper 70’s, which is slightly-below, or just around seasonable for this time of year. Some locations saw temperatures drop off a bit during the afternoon hours as sea-breezes made their way inland over portions of Long Island and Connecticut. There was some threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the lack of a strong trigger and very dry mid levels of the atmosphere seem to point that nothing more than a few cumulus clouds should be expected for the remainder of the day and into the evening.

As we continue into the evening hours, a very unusually strong mid level trough for this time of year will continue to pivot eastward, and drags another cold front with it. While this afternoons models were hinting at some rain later this evening associated with this cold front, it seems that the aforementioned dry air should put a kibosh on any precipitation. As the front approached the area, falling heights out ahead of the upper level trough should allow for clouds to increase, but with light winds and a very cool vertical temperature profile in place, overnight lows should drop to below-normal levels, with low to mid 60’s likely for most of the area, and 50’s possible for areas further away from the coast.

This evenings latest regional radar mosaic, HRES visible satellite imagery, and surface observations showing relatively calm conditions, with some showers and thunderstorms to the north and west (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

This evenings latest regional radar mosaic, HRES visible satellite imagery, and surface observations showing relatively calm conditions, with some showers and thunderstorms to the north and west (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Tuesday morning should feature mostly sunny skies to start the day as a cold front begins to move through the region. By the late morning to early afternoon hours, the anomalously strong trough centered to our north and west will continue to move east and be overtop the area, with very cool mid level temperatures. These cold mid level temperatures will become important tomorrow afternoon as the surface temperatures begin to rapidly warm up, causing a very healthy amount of rising motion in the atmosphere. Combined with very marginal instability, we could see one or two showers or even an isolated thunderstorm pop tomorrow afternoon, but due to continued dry mid levels of the atmosphere and the overall lack of a trigger, the most likely outcome is that clouds should begin to increase, with cumulus clouds becoming quite numerous by the late afternoon. With the cooler mid level temperatures in place and light southerly/southwesterly winds expected to be in place, high temperatures should be able to reach into the mid to upper 70’s, with some areas possibly even hitting the 80 degree mark with prolonged sun.

Otherwise, skies should begin to clear and winds should become calm as an area of high pressure begins to build in behind the cold front to our west. This high pressure system will usher in another cool and dry airmass for the region, which should allow quite favorable conditions for radiational cooling to take place during the evening hours tomorrow. This should allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60’s and even the 50’s once again!

This afternoons high resolution North American model showing a very pleasant day on Tuesday afternoon just before a cold front works its way on in from the west, bringing yet another mild and dry airmass (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

This afternoons high resolution North American model showing a very pleasant day on Tuesday afternoon just before a cold front works its way on in from the west, bringing yet another mild and dry airmass (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

Wednesday and Beyond

Wednesday will likely start off rather calm as an area of mid level ridging begins to build and move eastward during the day, with high pressure mainly in control. This should allow for mostly sunny skies and light winds from the south/southwest to take over during the day, which will likely bring temperatures in the upper 70’s to the lower 80’s for some of the more southern locations. All in all, Wednesday should be a rather beautiful day, with slightly below-normal highs and building clouds later in the day and approaching the evenings hours as a warm front begins to advance east.

By Thursday, the riding should become stationary over area and make little if any forward progress during the day, so expect winds to become a bit steadier from the southwest. Temperatures aloft will also begin to warm quite a bit, so temperatures will likely be able to climb into the low to middle 80’s during the day Thursday with mostly sunny conditions expected.

As we get towards the end of the week on Friday, its looking likely that precipitation chances will be on the increase as the area of high pressure along the east coast shifts eastward and allows rich tropical moisture to bleed northward once again. Temperatures will also be on the increase, with highs likely getting into the middle to upper 80’s, with some locations likely hitting that 90-degree mark as well. Friday appears to have more organized instability, better shear, and a more coherent trigger than any day this week, so we do feel that there is an increased risk of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms during the day on Friday, but we will have to revisit this later in the week. Otherwise, this pattern looks to continue through the weekend before another high pressure system moves through and brings a more mild airmass in time for the beginning of next week.

This afternoons European Ensembles showing an increased potential for above normal temperatures by the end of this week and into this weekend (Courtesy of TropicalTidbits)

This afternoons European Ensembles showing an increased potential for above normal temperatures by the end of this week and into this weekend (Courtesy of TropicalTidbits)

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Dreary Pattern Finally Breaks, Heat Wave Next Week?

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Good Evening! 

Today was a rather mild and mostly cloudy day across the area, but even this was a pretty sizable improvement compared to what the region saw yesterday when driving rains, cloudy skies, and well-below temperatures dominated the day. The pattern of a weak to moderately negative North Atlantic Oscillation that has been producing dreary conditions and below normal temperatures for the past few weeks will finally begin to break down in quite a big way.  Over the next few days, a large upper level trough off of the west coast will replace the large-scale ridge that has almost been a semi-permanent feature this Spring, and as this trough begins to dig in and strengthen, there will likely be some rather significant ramifications for our weather this weekend and into next week.

While all of the models and the overall pattern shaping up in the atmosphere screams that it will indeed get quite warm over the next week, the ceiling for next weeks high temperatures could be quite high-and we may even be talking about a heatwave for portions of the Northeast when all is said and done!

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This Evening Into Thursday 

As mentioned above, today was still pretty mild and mostly cloudy by normal standards, but the pattern we have been locked in for the past four weeks or so now has been anything but normal. It may be hard to believe, but temperatures were actually a good 5-15 degrees above what they were yesterday at this time. Some cloudy conditions were observed over much of the area this afternoon as the pesky, lingering upper-level system that brought the heavy rain to the Northeast yesterday still meandered just to the south of the area. Even though there was sufficient energy still in the atmosphere, northerly winds ushered in dry air from Canada pretty much killed any chance of showers this afternoon, and it should remain this way throughout the rest of the day as winds from the north/north east continue. With breaks of sun and more dry air taking over the region, most locations across the entire area saw temperatures get into the upper 60’s and lowers 70’s, with some slightly cooler conditions for those along the coast and under more dense cloud cover.

As we head into the evening hours tonight, increasing dry air from the northeast/east and a weak area of high pressure will take over, which should allow for any lingering clouds to continue to dissipate at a rather steady pace. This will result in mainly clear conditions this evening, and when coupled with the dry air and light winds, radiational cooling will once again take shape this evening, allowing for any heat absorbed at the surface levels this afternoon to be quickly radiated back out into the atmosphere. This will ensure that temperatures once again drop down into the lower to middle 50’s across most of the region, with 40’s possible for some of the more rural sections of New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

This evenings latest surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and regional radar mosaic, showing rather tranquil and cool conditions over the region (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

This evenings latest surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and regional radar mosaic, showing rather tranquil and cool conditions over the region (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Tomorrow looks to be a rather close call for the area as only a few days ago, the computer models were showing that yet another system with the potential for heavy rain would impact the region. However, as of this afternoon the computer model guidance has backed off this idea significantly and now shows that any potential rain will mainly be located to the east of New York City and should not be all that impactful. This system is just another byproduct of the lingering upper level system over our area that will once again strengthen and in the process, drag energy along the base of the trough from the south.

This energy will then race off the east coast which should result in the development of an area of low pressure near North Carolina during the day tomorrow that will quickly race to the north and east, drawing close to the 40/70 benchmark by the evening hours. The good news about this storm system missing us to the east is that as all of the lift and rainfall heads off near the low pressure system, dry/sinking air will be present over western areas that will promote clear/clearing skies throughout the day.

Overall, tomorrow looks to start off rather clear, becoming cloudier with time from west to east. Additionally, any shower potential will be highest along far eastern portions of Long Island and Connecticut by the late evening hours. High should range in the lower to middle 70’s across the entire region, with the exception of eastern locations under the influence of clouds and potential showers.

This evenings latest Rapid Precision Model showing the coastal low exiting well to the east of the area, with only the eastern fringes of Long Island and Connecticut seeing any impacts (Courtesy of WSI)

This evenings latest Rapid Precision Model showing the coastal low exiting well to the east of the area, with only the eastern fringes of Long Island and Connecticut seeing any impacts (Courtesy of WSI)

Friday and Saturday 

Any lingering showers and associated cloudiness with the area of low pressure moving to the east of our area will likely end early Friday morning, which should give way to clearing skies and light northwesterly winds by early afternoon. With clear skies early on and light winds, temperatures should be able to quickly rebound into the middle 70’s across much of the area, but we may see some cumulus clouds begin to develop as the afternoon marches on due to rather cool upper level temperatures that will provide rapid condensation as the warm air near the surface begins to lift in elevation (steep low level lapse rates). With some weak instability likely present during the day, we may actually see showers and possibly some thunderstorms develop to the west of the immediate NYC area and begin to travel east. While these showers and thunderstorms do not look like they will be widespread and or severe in nature, some storms may produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.

After this brief period of unstable weather, Saturday looks to be near-perfect with drier air feeding into the area, mostly sunny conditions and light winds will allow highs to climb into the low to mid 80’s on Saturday, with some slightly cooler temperatures to the east and along coastal locations.

Sunday and Beyond

Well the heat certainly looks to begin to build during the later half of the weekend and this is the news that many people have been anxiously awaiting for weeks now. Finally, it does appear that starting on Sunday a large ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the eastern third of the nation and will work to usher in much warmer mid and low level temperatures from the south/southwest. Highs on Sunday may range anywhere from the middle 80’s to lower 90’s, but this may only be the beginning.

As the ridge continues to flex its muscles again on Monday, more favorable mid level temperatures could allow temperatures to increase in magnitude once again, with highs possibly approaching the mid 90’s! Some uncertainty begins to arise starting Tuesday, as some models have a weak disturbance cooling things down, and another group of models have Tuesday once again reaching into the 90’s-which would make for a heat wave.

On Sunday/Monday/(possibly) Tuesday, we may see heat indices well into the 90’s and possibly even approach the century mark in a few select spots, so make sure to stay tuned for further updates from our forecasters as well as any potential heat advisories/warnings from the National Weather Service!

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For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

John Homenuk

Thursday Overview: Hot and humid, a few strong storms

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Hot and humid weather will continue today, with heat index values expected to again rise into the mid to upper 90’s by the late morning and afternoon hours. The temperatures will again be hot, but the bigger story by this afternoon and evening will be the dew points, which are expected to rise into the 70’s. The combination will lead to heat index values higher than yesterday. The air will feel quite oppressive as well, especially as the afternoon draws on into the evening.

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