Posts

John Homenuk

NYC goes for an official heatwave today

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After two days with temperatures in the lower 90’s, Central Park is vying for an official heatwave today as the warm and humid airmass takes one last stand. Temperatures this morning are already in the lower to middle 80’s throughout the area, but clouds and showers are meandering around the forecast area within the warm sector — or the area of warm, humid air ahead of a cold front.

Later today, however, drier mid level temperatures are expected to promote more sunshine. With warm air still present at many levels of the atmosphere, forecast models are in good agreement that high temperatures will approach 90 degrees once again. Areas in urban Northeast NJ and southwestward toward Central NJ are likely to see temperatures reach into the lower 90’s as well. This third straight day of 90 degree temperatures at Central Park would secure an official, mid-summer heat wave.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Pleasant evening, hot and stormy Thursday

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Wednesday turned out to be one of the more beautiful days in the past several weeks. A transitional day, between disturbance, meant highs climbing into the lower 80’s with an abundance of sunshine. But more importantly, lower humidity and a lack of lift and atmospheric instability meant no thunderstorms or rain. Fair weather clouds were the only thing passing by — and the weather was extremely comfortable, even if the sun was a bit hot.

Wednesday evening, temperatures will remain comfortable and winds will continue westerly. This is important, as it negates any marine air or onshore flow (which kept us cool last week). To our north and west, a frontal system and wind shift boundary will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Thursday. So while Wednesday Night will be pleasant and quiet, this boundary will be important for the coming day on Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Heat, severe weather threat will build this week

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Yesterday we wrote that “summer weather was finally here”. Well, if you’ve been here long enough you know that “summer weather” refers to sunshine and warmth, but also brings the potential for thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong winds. We were able to luck out on Monday, as strong and severe thunderstorms (which produced widespread reports of damaging winds) stayed off to our west. Tuesday will be first day which storms will move through our area.

While the storms on Tuesday aren’t expected to be quite as severe as the ones which brought wind damage to the interior Northeast on Monday, they will still have the potential to produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain. Lightning will, of course, also be a threat in any storms that develop. Instability will be a bit less than ideal for widespread storms, but wind shear may help them organize. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly to the north of NYC into New England. 

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John Homenuk

Meteorological Fall brings start of summery weather

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It almost couldn’t be any more ironic. The start of Meteorological Fall, which falls annually on September 1st,  has typically been a fairly good indicator of when the summer weather would end and give way to more fall-like conditions. This year, however, the summery weather has in fact waited until the start of meteorological fall to get underway. Temperatures on Tuesday, which obviously still falls within calendar/astronomical summer, will reach into the mid 90’s. Making matters worse, rising humidity will lead to heat index values in the upper 90’s. The heat and humidity will become borderline oppressive — and we suggest taking time away from the sun and making a conscious effort to remain hydrated.

NAM model showing highs in the mid 90's on Tuesday.

NAM model showing highs in the mid 90’s on Tuesday.

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