Posts

John Homenuk

Long Range: Warmth on the way, but for how long?

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A happy Friday morning to you all! A large-scale pattern change is underway throughout much of the hemisphere — well, to be completely transparent, has been underway throughout much of the hemisphere — for the past few days. The seeds of the pattern change were planted long ago, almost 10 days before today, when a large ridge in the Eastern Pacific Ocean began to retrograde westwards towards the Aleutian Islands.

But even as recently as early this week, a ridge stood along the US West Coast, allowing northern stream energy (emanating from Canada and the arctic/polar regions) to drop southwards into the Northeast States. This ridge will finally collapse this week, dropping eastwards and flattening out. As it does so, arctic air over the Northeast states will be fleeting northeastwards into the Canadian Maritimes.

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John Homenuk

Long Range: Pacific Ocean, stratosphere hold the keys to the pattern

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The winter season, thus far has been characterized mainly by transition. No real consistency has developed in the weather pattern, both throughout the Pacific Ocean and the United States. Much of this can be attributed to tropical forcing and the state of the Pacific Ocean itself, which has remained largely in flux over the past several months. Every time it appears a pattern will settle in, some sort of retrograde or reversal occurs — before another train of disturbance arrives from the Western Pacific and changes things yet again.

Yet, here we are, more than halfway through the winter, at what seems to be a breaking point of sorts. The atmosphere, from the troposphere to the stratosphere, is about to undergo some significant changes, most of which will have a large impact on the weather we experience here across the lower 48. Much of this begins in the Pacific Ocean (Again) where the pattern is going to change once again — and ends in the stratosphere, where the large polar vortex is going to be significantly disrupted.

The sensible weather results throughout the lower 48 currently remain uncertain. But there are some clues to be found in the medium and long range forecast models. There are also clues to be found away from model guidance — not everything comes directly from them, after all. We can look to past events as well as basic synoptic meteorology to begin to understand how the pattern will evolve through February and beyond.

We break down what’s going on in our latest video:

John Homenuk

Long range pattern changes largely dependent on the Pacific

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“Consistently inconsistent”. We’ve used the phrase a few times in our products over the past few days, and there’s good reason for that: The weather pattern over the past two months has struggled to find any sort of rhythm. Typical of weak La Nina conditions, the hemispheric weather pattern continues to undergo fluctuations, with transitions from warmer to colder patterns occurring every 10 to 15 days. The warmer patterns have the edge so far this year in terms of anomalies throughout much of the Northeast US.

An analysis of the hemispheric pattern “Scorecard” so far this year will bring you to one simple conclusion: The pattern in the Pacific Ocean has, by and large, been the driving force behind the weather observed here in the Northeast US. For some, it’s still hard to comprehend how the weather pattern thousands of miles to our west, in a seemingly harmless part of the world, can have such an impact. But when considering the atmospheres wave pattern, it becomes easier to understand. What happens downstream, to our west, affects the waves and wavelengths that transpire further east.

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John Homenuk

How long will Winter’s hiatus last? Look to the Pacific

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Before the warmth has even arrived, signals of a changing weather pattern have begun once again. This is, honestly, par for the course in the hemispheric pattern that we have been locked into over the past several months. The progressive nature of the pattern itself has not allowed any particular regime to become stagnant. In other words, the pattern is changing quite consistently, and no overly cold or overly warm regime has become established locally.

While this idea fits within our overall winter forecast, there is something to be said for emerging signals of a return to a colder, more active pattern before a warmer pattern has already begun. Lets not get confused, though — the warmer than normal pattern is still on the way. In fact, temperatures are likely to average above seasonal normals in the Northeast US for quite some time from late this week through Christmas and into the first week of January.

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