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Doug Simonian

Update: Cloudy and drizzly now, heavier rains tonight

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After a brief bout of rain this morning, most of the area is currently in a dry-slot. Lots of dry air has filtered into the region thanks to a high pressure system to the north. And considering the storm is still well to the south of the area, there is not enough lift in the atmosphere at our latitude to consistently supply rain. This is why our forecast called for the heaviest rain to be tonight and tomorrow morning, rather than today.

 

The water vapor imagery shows dry air filtering into our storm system, but lots of cold cloud tops to the east that will eventually head our way.

The water vapor imagery shows dry air filtering into our storm system, but lots of cold cloud tops to the east that will eventually head our way.

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John Homenuk

Nor’easter to bring rain, wind over next several days

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Sunny, warm and pleasant conditions will become a distant memory during the second half of this work week. A coastal system, or Nor’easter, will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast today and shift slowly northward. The developing system is actually the weak remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, now a mid level disturbance shifting up the Eastern Seaboard. Although not featuring a very strong center of low pressure, the system will push north with a tight gradient developing between the low pressure area and the high pressure holding firm to the north. The result will be east/northeasterly winds (an onshore flow) for a prolonged period of time, as well as gusty winds and periods of rain.

Gale Warnings and Coastal Flood Statements have been issued by the National Weather Service in advance of the system.

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John Homenuk

Fair weather on the way in wake of nor’easter

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Water vapor satellite imagery early Tuesday morning, showing the strong coastal system moving away to the Northeast and calmer, drier weather approaching.

Water vapor satellite imagery early Tuesday morning, showing the strong coastal system moving away to the Northeast and calmer, drier weather approaching.

A late season winter storm impacted the area on Monday, with less flair than originally expected. Warm ground temperatures (and warm air temperatures during the day) combined with light precipitation rates to keep it mainly a non accumulating snow event in Northern NJ and New York City. Dry air won the battle over precipitation farther north over Connecticut and Southeast New York. Farther south, over Central and Southern NJ, a few inches of snow were observed through Monday evening. The brunt of the storm (as far as heavy banding and the low pressure center), however, remained barely offshore. In the end, the storm system will likely be remembered as a “near miss for the area”. As we move forward into the week, a moderating trend in temperatures and dry weather are in the forecast — and it should at least begin to feel a bit more like Spring.

Cool air will hang on initially, with some clouds and a slight chance of showers on Tuesday. High temperatures in the upper 40’s, approaching 50, are expected. Cool nights will still be present with lows in the 20’s and 30’s — so don’t put away the coats just yet. Additionally, the cold air is still present to our north (owing to the big blocking and historically negative AO we experienced last week), so that could take a while to shake. By late this week into the weekend, high temperatures are expected to reach into the 50’s. I think it’s safe to say we are all looking forward to it.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with a high in the mid to upper 40′s. Northwest winds around 10 miles per hour. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and cool with lows in the upper 20′s to middle 30′s. Northwest winds 1o to 15 miles per hour.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high in the mid to upper 40′s. West winds around 10 miles per hour.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and feeling warmer with a high in the mid to upper 40′s to near 50. Overnight low in the mid 30′s.

 

John Homenuk

Cooler/Unsettled weather behind big nor’easter

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Behind the strong storm system which impacted our area this weekend, the weather will take a turn towards a cooler and slightly more unsettled

GFS Model (4/23/12) showing potential rain and unsettled weather near a warm front next weekend.

pattern. Prior to the system, above normal temperatures and fair weather were dominant, but as it looks now this storm will serve as a bit of a pattern-changer. It doesn’t look like we’ll return to much-above normal departures any time soon. Instead, forecast models are indicative of a bit of a battleground setting up near our area, as a gradient develops in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Such an event would likely mean more chances for precipitation, and temperatures running near normal for this time of year (with, of course, some fluctuations).

This week, showers will be around to start as an upper air trough lingers behind the strong storm system. It looks like high temperatures will warm up a bit as we approach Thursday, where they may spike into the mid/upper 60’s. But shortly thereafter, showers and a cold front will work back into the forecast, and bring cooler weather again for the weekend ahead. Pictured right: GFS model showing a “gradient” near our area later this week and this weekend. On the left, we see the mid-level heights in the atmosphere, and on the right, we can see the 6 hour precipitation and 850mb temperatures. Notice the temperature gradient near our area and precipitation near a warm front.

Article written by JH. Published April 23rd, 2012 at 1:30pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.