Posts

John Homenuk

PM Update: Calm, cool weather ahead of weekend Nor’Easter

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Generally calm and cool weather is expected to continue over the next few days, with plenty of sunshine throughout the Northeast states and temperatures solidly below normal for this time of year. Building clouds on Friday will be the first sign of an impending storm this weekend, with a significant Nor’Easter expected to develop from late Friday Night into Saturday. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and moderate coastal flooding are all expected in the Mid-Atlantic, with even some wintry precipitation on the front end of the storm in the higher elevations of New England.

The system is forming several days after the potential for its development was first discussed. A highly anomalous pattern in the atmosphere, including the presence of blocking ridges of high pressure in Canada, set the stage for the storm. For meteorologists, these “warning signs” are important to catch, as they can provide enhanced lead time for storm development.

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Nor’Easter increasingly likely this weekend

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A colder than normal pattern has become well established throughout the Northeast states over the past few days – in case you haven’t noticed yet -and will remain established for the remainder of the week. In fact, a low pressure system is expected to strengthen in the Gulf of Maine later tonight into Wednesday, producing the first accumulating snowfall of the season for parts of Maine.

Meanwhile, the weather pattern across the Central and Southern United States is forecast to become more amplified. Forecast model guidance suggests that a few disturbances will eject southeastward from the Pacific Ocean into the Central United States, and a second disturbance will linger off the Southeast Coast. The interaction of these two features will aid in the development of a low pressure area off the Southeast US coast by Friday.

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John Homenuk

Significant winter storm begins, widespread impacts likely

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Snowstorm Impact | 8/10 (Severe)

3:00pm Update: The winter storm is continuing to come together across the Northern Mid Atlantic. Snowfall rates have increased area-wide and will continue to become more steady, as banding in the storm system develops. The dynamic aspect of the system is still ongoing, transferring the coastal low that will become dominant. As this occurs, bands of heavier snow should pivot inland towards NJ, NYC, and Long Island.

So far, around 4.5″ of snow has fallen at Central Park, and a similar amount at Newark. Some areas are observing local differences, which is typical. But with heavier/steadier snow rates continuing and sunset approaching, we expect accumulations to become more widespread, even on roadways throughout the region. The latest radar shows the bands well, especially over Northern NJ and NYC over the past 30 minutes.

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Another winter storm possible this week

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Monday’s Weather Rating: | 5/10 (Fair)

Good morning on this cool and wintry Monday. After a calm and benign weather weekend in the Northeast states, our full attention has turned to the potential for a winter weather event during the middle of the week ahead. This potential event has been spoken about for quite some time now, and the evolution has changed on forecast model guidance quite a bit over the last 48-60 hours. With all of that said, the potential for a storm of significance still exists.

The week is expected to start off quietly on both Monday and most of Tuesday. Transient clouds and very cold temperatures are expected. There’s no shorting this airmass – it’s extremely cold for this time of year, with temperatures several degrees below average for several days in a row. Temperature departures will exceed -10 F in many locations during this time frame. As our cold continues, a disturbance is organizing in the Central Plains and beginning its move eastward, setting the stage for a complex and convoluted storm evolution during the middle part of the week.

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