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John Homenuk

Heat, severe weather threat will build this week

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Yesterday we wrote that “summer weather was finally here”. Well, if you’ve been here long enough you know that “summer weather” refers to sunshine and warmth, but also brings the potential for thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong winds. We were able to luck out on Monday, as strong and severe thunderstorms (which produced widespread reports of damaging winds) stayed off to our west. Tuesday will be first day which storms will move through our area.

While the storms on Tuesday aren’t expected to be quite as severe as the ones which brought wind damage to the interior Northeast on Monday, they will still have the potential to produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain. Lightning will, of course, also be a threat in any storms that develop. Instability will be a bit less than ideal for widespread storms, but wind shear may help them organize. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly to the north of NYC into New England. 

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John Homenuk

Slight risk for strong storms this evening

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area from New York City westward in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, warm and humid air is advecting northward into the region. Increasing dew points and surface heating will lead to the development of moderate instability throughout the area by the afternoon hours. Accordingly, the approaching front will aid in the development of storms from Eastern Pennsylvania into Western New Jersey.

These storms will move toward a narrow axis of instability over New Jersey reaching toward New York City this afternoon. Narrow, only because east of New York City a stout marine layer will remain in place. This will keep storms elevated and weaker — temperatures there will be cooler as well with less instability. Nevertheless, the storms will march eastward through New Jersey toward NYC right around the PM Commute. The main threats with any storms will be gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

This post will be updated throughout the day with the latest information including watches and warnings.

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John Homenuk

Strong storms possible with big cold front Thursday

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A significant cold front moving through the Central United States will approach the region late on Thursday evening, bringing a wind shift and drop in temperatures both aloft and at the surface. The cold front is associated with a major mid level disturbance, which will shift from the North Central US into Southeastern Canada. As the front shifts through our region, moderate instability and favorable wind fields could support the development of strong/severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening, citing a risk for strong winds. In addition to the winds, unseasonably high precipitable water could support heavy rain and flooding in any storms that shift through the area Thursday evening. But the severe weather threat isn’t as straightforward as it may seem.

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John Homenuk

Increased humidity, severe storms this weekend

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Low clouds have created a bit of a wrinkle in the forecast early Friday morning, owing to a southeasterly flow which developed late Thursday night. The low level inversion allowed for these clouds to push inland and develop, as seen on visible satellite imagery from Eastern Pennsylvania into much of New Jersey and New York. These clouds will eventually thin and break later Friday afternoon, as southwesterly winds take over.

Temperatures, as a result, will rebound with highs expected to reach into the upper 80’s. Rising humidity will also make it feel much more uncomfortable. The atmosphere won’t be able to efficiently mix out — so temperatures won’t rise into the 90’s on Friday and seabreezes may develop. These seabreeze boundaries could serve as a focal point for the development of some isolated storms Friday afternoon.

HRRR model forecasting highs in the 90's away from the coast on Friday, with cooler air near the shore.

HRRR model forecasting highs in the 90’s away from the coast on Friday, with cooler air near the shore.

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