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Offshore Storm Brings Snowfall for Coastal Areas Today

Low pressure off the Southeast coast early this morning, will track quickly northeast today. Snow will overspread from the southwest to northeast across most of the region this morning.  The low will slowly intensify today and have a lot moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. But the low track well south and east of 40/70 benchmark. This will keep the brunt of the storm mostly offshore.

However, lift from upper-level jet and mid-level disturbance are anticipated to enhance some moderate to possibly heavy banding over snow particularly for coastal sections by early this afternoon. Heaviest snowfall is expected over parts of Central and Eastern parts of Long Island and Connecticut and over Southeast NJ where 6” of snow and greater is mostly likely fall. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for these areas.

snowtotalsmap

Snowfall map issued Friday night

Further northwest, latest guidance early this morning, indicates some low-level dry air with north-northwest winds may cause sharp cut-off in snowfall totals especially just of west of the Hudson River. At this time, we continue anticipate about 3″-6″ for NYC and Nassau and back towards I-95. Just northwest of these locations, snowfall totals will drop off quickly. But if low-level dry air wins out, these amounts may be lower  with far less snow farther northwest We will keep monitoring for these trends today and update as necessary. Otherwise mostly cloudy skies are expected today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

Snow will begin tapering off late this afternoon and this evening, as the storm moves further into Atlantic. It will turn colder behind this storm temperatures dropping into teens over region overnight. Skies will clear later tonight, as high pressure builds into region. Sunday will be partly sunny, but very cold, blustery with highs in the middle to upper 20s.

Premium: Winter weather impacts in Northeast US this week

A dynamic storm system is expected to track through the Northeast United States later this week, bringing with it the opportunity for some frozen precipitation, particularly on the front end as the storm develops. This will be especially true in the interior and higher elevations, before warm air changes precipitation over to rain. Nearer to the coast, mostly rain is expected, although a brief burst of frozen precipitation isn’t out of the question in the suburbs and higher elevations there as well.

The storm system will be operating and gaining steam from “warm air advection” in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Moisture surging toward the Northeast US on Thursday will provide increasing lift for precipitation as warm air moves into the atmospheres mid levels. The atmosphere will quickly become too warm for frozen precipitation near the coast, but colder air will hang on a bit longer in the interior. This will lead to a complicated forecast.

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Central Park Conservancy will take over snowfall measurements

The National Weather Service announced today that the Central Park Conservancy will take over measuring snowfall during the winter of 2015-2016. This marks and end of a 22-year run for the Central Park Zoo, where snowfall has been measured since 1993. The National Weather Service trained 20 or more individual employees at the Central Park Conservancy over the past several months in order to make the transition as easy as possible, and to improve accuracy of snowfall reporting in New York City.

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NWS adjusts curiously low snowfall totals at Central Park

For years now, the meteorological community has been aware that Central Park usually reports snowfall totals lower than its surroundings. For reasons not completely known, surrounding stations at Newark, LaGuardia, and Teterboro Airports almost always seem to report higher snowfall totals. Even local, public reports in Midtown and Lower Manhattan seem to consistently come in higher than the Central Park Zoo. This year, the National Weather Service took to the task and edited the official Central Park reports to better match surrounding data.

Snowfall amounts from three separate storms this winter:

January 6th, 2015: Snowfall total adjusted from 0.5″ to 1.0″ (+0.5″)

January 24th, 2015: Snowfall total adjusted from 2.5″ to 3.6″ (+1.1″)

February 2nd, 2015: Snowfall total adjusted from 3.3″ to 5.0″ (+1.7″)

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