Posts

Miguel Pierre

Premium weekly outlook: Very warm start, cooler air to follow

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The anomalous warmth we spoke about last week? It’s finally here! Sunshine will mix with clouds occasionally this afternoon, but by and large, high pressure will remain in control of the weather throughout the Northeast United States. Forecast model guidance suggests that 850mb temperatures of 12-14+ C will surge northward toward the Mid Atlantic states, with southwest winds drawing in warmer air at the surface. Temperatures will rise in the upper 70’s to near 80 this afternoon, with the possibility of some clouds later this afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance passes by. Otherwise, clearing is expected later tonight underneath high pressure and light winds. The interior valleys will drop into the 50’s, but this will be much warmer than the past several nights. Radiational cooling and warm air advecting in the mid levels could cause moisture to be trapped in the low levels — leading to low clouds and patchy fog in spots through Tuesday morning.

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Miguel Pierre

Weekend Overview: Very Warm and Dry Weather Through Sunday

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Beautiful, summery weather is store for this weekend with high pressure north and east of region in control.  Today will have plenty of sunshine with temperatures rising into upper 80s  around 90 this afternoon, especially inland. Light easterly winds may keep some areas near the shore a little cooler in the lower to middle 80s. These temperatures, are still several degrees warmer than average for this time year. But humidity will be more comfortable. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with temperatures dropping into lower 70s over NYC metro and down into 60s in suburbs overnight.

Sunday will be mostly sunny again with high temperatures likely in middle to upper 80s, at least over inland sections. However, with high pressure further shifting northeast of the region, this will cause more southeast winds and sea-breezes to develop during the afternoon, especially over parts of Long Island and other south-facing shore. Which may see high temperatures only in the lower to middle 80s tomorrow. Which is still slightly above average. Some other highlights for the next few days:

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Miguel Pierre

Weekend Overview: Excessive Heat & Scattered T-Storms for Saturday and Sunday

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Oppressive heat and humidity will continue through Sunday with a strong upper-level ridge over region.  Temperatures are already approaching the upper 80s or lower 90s late this morning. High temperatures will be middle to upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday, over much of the region. Heat index values will be between 105F to 110F this afternoon. Therefore the National Weather Service now has excessive heat warnings for most of the region through Sunday. Take precautions to stay well-hydrated, while outdoors this weekend.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday. A lack of deep layer shear and large scale forcing will likely inhibit more organized or widespread severe weather threats in the region. But with extreme levels of instability and moisture in the atmosphere, a few thunderstorms could become strong or severe with gusty winds, torrential downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Some other highlights.

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John Homenuk

2016 Summer Forecast

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Over the past several months, our forecasters have monitored several extremely important variables, indices, and the trends in their behavior. We will be utilizing those variables and indices throughout our summer forecast. These variables reflect the atmospheric circulation patterns for certain geographical areas. For example, the AO refers to patterns within the Arctic Circle. The NAO refers to pattern characteristics in the North Atlantic, the PNA in the western part of North America, the PDO in the Pacific Ocean, and the EPO in the Northern and Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Typically, negative AO, NAO and EPO values correlate to enhanced high latitude blocking and high pressure to our north while lower pressure areas and troughs usually form underneath that high latitude ridging in the middle latitudes. In contrast, positive AO, NAO and EPO values generally yield lower pressure and less blocking to our north, while higher pressure and more ridging tends to build into the middle latitudes.

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