Posts

John Homenuk

NOAA announces Summer 2014 was warmest ever on Earth

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2014 has been officially announced as the warmest summer on Earth, since records began in 1880. The newest climate report published by the National Climate Data Center at NOAA released the information today as well as other in-depth information from around the world for this summer and its individual months. In addition to the summer as a whole being the warmest on record, August 2014 was also the warmest August ever recorded on Earth, finishing 0.75 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.

While the summer in our area was relatively average, if not cool, the ocean waters throughout the globe and different land areas worldwide led to the wildly above-average temperatures. The summer as a whole finished 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average. The ocean temperatures set a record high anomaly for all months.

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John Homenuk

Meteorological Fall brings start of summery weather

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It almost couldn’t be any more ironic. The start of Meteorological Fall, which falls annually on September 1st,  has typically been a fairly good indicator of when the summer weather would end and give way to more fall-like conditions. This year, however, the summery weather has in fact waited until the start of meteorological fall to get underway. Temperatures on Tuesday, which obviously still falls within calendar/astronomical summer, will reach into the mid 90’s. Making matters worse, rising humidity will lead to heat index values in the upper 90’s. The heat and humidity will become borderline oppressive — and we suggest taking time away from the sun and making a conscious effort to remain hydrated.

NAM model showing highs in the mid 90's on Tuesday.

NAM model showing highs in the mid 90’s on Tuesday.

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Summer begins with splendid weather

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Astronomical summer officially begins at 1:04am on Friday with the summer solstice, but the weather may more resemble early to mid spring. Lower dew points and temperatures in the upper 70’s to low 80’s will be common throughout the area on Friday, making it the third in a string of several days of pleasant weather expected through the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures and humidity will be on the climb by the end of the weekend, however, with an increased chance of storminess expected by early next week. Enjoy the pleasant air while it sticks around!

Today (Friday): Sunny with highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. South winds from 5 to 10 miles per hour. A bit cooler near the shore.

Tonight: Clear, with lows in the 50’s to lower 60’s. As usual, it will be colder outside of the city. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Saturday: Sunny with highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. South winds from 5 to 10 miles per hour.

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Tom Stavola

Summer Outlook 2013

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Below, you will find our 2013 Summer Outlook. We’ve laid out the details and broken down the expected temperatures and precipitation, as well as factors and reasoning involved in the outlook. We encourage your comments, thoughts and feedback!

Factors/Expectations:

1) Neutral ENSO conditions should persist through the upcoming summer with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) not far from normal in the tropical Pacific.

2) The negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or cold eastern Pacific, that we saw through winter has weakened somewhat, but will continue to be slightly negative/cold this summer season.

3) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) continues to run slightly positive/warm, with a SSTA profile of warmth near the East Coast, cold in the central Atlantic, and warm in the deep tropics.

4) The strong blocking pattern of negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) that yielded a very cold late winter/early winter has since dissipated. Both indices have been predominately neutral to slightly positive over the past several weeks, and the historical tendency is for this to continue into the ensuing summer. There may be a one month period of –NAO/AO, but the overall signaling should be near neutral or slightly positive in terms of the NAO/AO blocking indicators.

5) The closest, most similar analog to the present conditions in terms of PDO, NAO, AO, PNA, ENSO, and other factors appears to be 2001. Note that analogs are utilized as tools to identify patterns and obtain clues from the past that may enable us to more accurately forecast the future. No one year is identical in pattern to another year.

6) Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for the month of May have shown to be excellent foretellers of the June-July-August (JJA) temperature anomalies across the Continental United States (CONUS). The correlation is a strong one, when examining the past 20 years. Areas of drought/dry persistence in May tend to be the breeding grounds for heat in the summer and strong ridging. Likewise, areas of wetness / high soil moisture in the late meteorological spring tend to indicate an ensuing summer of coolness or at least less frequent heat spells.

7) Patterns of strong blocking in the late spring often foretell summers of strong USA heat while patterns devoid of blocking in late spring tend to yield summers of weaker USA heat.

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