Posts

John Homenuk

PM Zone 4/5 (Southeast NJ) Update: Light snow tonight

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A weak low pressure system is developing this evening across the Mid Atlantic states, and will continue to move east/northeastwards to a  position off the New Jersey coast from later tonight into Sunday Morning. The low pressure area is associated with a deep, but progressive mid and upper level trough which is moving through the Northeast states as we speak. This trough is of polar origin, emanating from Canada.

The “clipper” system will develop through the evening, as lift in the atmosphere strengthens and expands. Additional moisture will also be drawn into the system as the low pressure center develops tonight. The two will coincide over Southeast parts of New Jersey from late Sunday Night into Monday morning.

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John Homenuk

Winter storm increasing likely in interior New England late week

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Discussed at length yesterday was the potential for a notable winter weather event this weekend in New England, particularly interior locations, with the development of an impressive low pressure area in the Gulf of Maine. Forecast models over the past 12-24 hours have trended favorably for the development of this low pressure area, with a shrinking envelope of potential solutions on the table.

The most notable change has been a trend away from a progressive mid level atmospheric solution, which many forecast models had agreed was going to occur just a few days ago. Synoptically, this type of solution made sense — but a change in the pattern across the Pacific Ocean will lead to more amplification potential downstream over the United States. A more amplified disturbance driving into New England has led to the slower, stronger trends on forecast model guidance.

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Miguel Pierre

Weekly Overview: Transitional weather, interior winter storm possible late week

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It was dreary today with lots of cloud cover and spotty light rain and drizzle in some areas. High pressure is now moving out into the Atlantic, while low pressure from the Midwest tracks into Southeast Canada.  This will allow for a warm front to lift further northward through the Northeast states this evening, with winds turning more southwest overnight. Cloud cover will remain in place most of the night with some light rain or drizzle still possible.

Temperatures will gradually rise through the 40s into the 50s later tonight and Tuesday, especially closer to the coast.  These temperatures will be mild for late December. A cold front moves through the Northeast states with more showers possible Tuesday morning and early afternoon.  A mid-level shortwave and upper-level jet streak drifting through may aid in more lift, but moisture appears somewhat limited with this front based on this evenings guidance. So heavy rain is not anticipated.

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John Homenuk

Late week winter storm possible in interior New England

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Amid a changing hemispheric pattern and active jet stream pattern, forecast models have begun to hone in on the potential for a late-week winter storm across New England, particularly interior locations. Despite the presence of a warm antecedent airmass and a relatively progressive-natured pattern (both of which will be discussed as mitigating factors below), the potential does exist for a winter storm that would impact interior locations of New England as an energetic disturbance drives southeastwards into the Northeast US late week.

Forecast models have responded to the development and energy of this disturbance as a reaction to a storm system in East Asia — yes , East Asia. We speak often about how weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean affect our area as well, and this time is no different. A deep storm in East Asia has built ridging into Alaska, which has shunted this disturbance southeast more quickly and with more energy.

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