Posts

Miguel Pierre

What the QBO and the sun can tell us about the winter ahead

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Take a deep breath — sit back, and relax. You are about to read our first post detailing some early thoughts for the Winter of 2017-2018. August is a bit of an odd time for it, we know. Not every year offers the opportunity to discuss the road to the winter ahead during the month of August. Some years require patience until September or October before we can start discussing early signals with confidence. This year, however, we’re seeing important signs for the cold season already as we speak.

This afternoon, we’re going to take a very early look at some of the significant changes that have occurred all around us since the end of last winter. It’s true — in the time between the day the last snowflake fell in the Northeast states and today, there have been significant changes throughout the atmosphere, in the oceans, and even in the patterns of energy emanating from the sun. All of these things will impact the winter ahead — so lets dive in to what we’re observing so far.

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John Homenuk

PM Zone Update: Myriad of hazards in Northeast US on Friday

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An active pattern, discussed for several weeks, has finally arrived over the past several days. Its impacts will continue to be felt late this week into parts of the weekend. Despite some drier and more pleasant weather on Wednesday and Thursday, another significant storm system is already organizing over the Central United States. This storm system is currently producing severe weather in the Mississippi River Valley and its moisture will continue to shift towards the Northeast States.

The first sign of its arrival will be increasingly thick clouds which will lower as the evening goes on. Precipitation will then develop northeastwards from the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the Northeast states from late Thursday Night into Friday. For much of the Mid Atlantic and Coastal Southern New England, precipitation will begin as rain — although some ice pellets are possible as the atmosphere begins to moisten up over Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey.

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Miguel Pierre

3/20 All Zones AM Update: Spring & Winter Weather Take Turns This Week

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Happy Monday! Spring has arrived officially on astronomical calendar. More pleasant weather with temperatures closer to seasonal levels are coming in just in time for it, over the next couple days. Some ridging over the region will support high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s this afternoon. There will be plenty of sunshine for much of the day, and winds remain light of the northwest.

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John Homenuk

3.5 Afternoon All Zones: Cold now, active pattern ahead

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Very cold weather settled into the area on Saturday, with temperatures running well below normal throughout much of the Northeast United States. A deep trough swinging through New England brought arctic air into the area, with brisk northwest winds making the air feel colder than it already was. This cold is meandering across the region today, and will gradually move away over the next few days.

The warmup will continue with moderating temperatures as the midweek period approaches. Temperatures will rise near and then above normal by the first two days of the week. A strong storm system developing over the Central United States is expected to shift into the Great Lakes, drawing a notable southwest flow towards the area in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. Another severe weather event is expected to unfold across the Central US as a cold front approaches the Ohio Valley and eventually Northeast.

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