2014 - Page 56 of 58 - New York Metro Weather

Ice Jam continues, wintry mix tomorrow morning, and a major storm on Saturday

January 9, 2014/0 Comments/by Doug Simonian

The ice jam along the Delaware River has continued to worsen, as Flash Flood Watches have been upgraded to Flash Flood Warnings in Mercer County in New Jersey, and Bucks County in Pennsylvania. Flooding has been reported at Route 29, and some roads have been closed. For more details on the Flood Warning, click this link. Otherwise, a Flash Flood Watch still exists in Mercer, Northwest Burlington, Philadelphia, and Lower Bucks County. For more information on ice jams and their potential severity, check out our article from yesterday, and today’s video discussion, which also highlights the storm potential on Saturday.

Moving forward to the weather for the rest of today, it certainly feels more comfortable than it has been with sunny skies and temperatures around or just above freezing. Continued warm air advection will prevent temperatures from dropping too much during the overnight. However, the warm and moist air approaching the still relatively cool airmass will help to trigger a weak warm front. Out ahead of this warm front, light precipitation will be falling and considering temperatures will still be around freezing, a light round of wintry precipitation can be expected late tonight and tomorrow morning.

Today’s RGEM model valid for 6am tomorrow morning shows some light snow passing just to the north of NYC.

It’s a bit of a tricky forecast due to the fact that the precipitation is relatively light, scattered, and disorganized — so the exact location and timing of precipitation is uncertain. The earlier it arrives, the more wintry the scenario; the later it arrives, the rainier the scenario. Warm air moving in both aloft and at the surface will eventually change any light precipitation over to liquid by later Friday. Today’s 12z RGEM model shows the snow remaining to our north, with only a few passing flurries for NYC. However, today’s European model showed the early-morning batch of precipitation a tad further south, which allows our area to pick up a coating to 1″ of snow.

Moving forward a few hours later, the RGEM model suggests things will be getting a bit icy.

Today’s 12z RGEM valid for 11am tomorrow morning shows some significant icing for the NYC area.

Ice Jam along Delaware River raises major flood concerns

January 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Observations from this afternoon confirmed a major ice jam along the Delaware River near Trenton, and concern is rising for flooding potential along and near the river and its banks as the ice melts. Water levels have risen over 7 feet since last night. Latest reports suggest initial flooding occurred this afternoon near Market Street and Route 29. The National Weather Service has issued Flash Flood Warnings along the Delaware River from Trenton southward to Philadelphia for the potential of river flooding. The warnings continue through the morning hours on Thursday January 9th.

An ice jam occurs when pieces of floating ice, carried with the stream’s current, accumulate at an obstruction to the streams flow. The ice cams can develop near river bends, banks, mouths, or even points where the slope of the river decreases. The water held back can rise rapidly and cause significant flooding. Moreoever, if the obstruction breaks suddenly, flash flooding can rapidly occur downstream. This is the concern of forecasters this evening.

Ice jam on the Delaware River near Trenton as photographed on January 8, 2014.

Slow thaw will lead to warm weekend

January 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

There is much still to be said and analyzed about the actual impacts of the polar vortex’s pass through our area early this week, but for now – the main story will become its exit and the ensuing warm up. High temperatures on Wednesday have already rebounded several degrees, and less aggressive wind gusts have allowed wind chills to warm up as well. Don’t get us wrong — the airmass remains downright frigid — but the record breaking cold is moving out of the picture. The polar vortex is already retreating well to our north and will continue to do so through Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will respond, and warm, as the week comes to a close. Forecast models are in good agreement that surface temperatures will, as well. Highs should slowly warm into the 30’s by the end of the week. The pattern, then, will begin to change. The first sign will be a weak storm system which will slingshot towards our area from the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and may provide a period of light snow. Minimal accumulations are expected. But by this weekend, a stronger storm system will be organizing over the Central United States and the southerly flow ahead of it will begin pumping warmer air into our area.

GIF image animation showing rising temperatures at the 850mb level on Wednesday.

Polar air brings first record low to NYC since 1996

January 7, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

New York City had not broken a record “low” temperature since March 9, 1996. That’s almost eighteen years ago, which is hard to fathom especially when considering the amount of high temperature records which have fallen in the time since then. Yet the daily record low temperature for January 7, which was previously 5 degrees, fell on Tuesday when Central Park’s temperature dropped to 4 degrees — breaking the near eighteen year streak. The previous low of 5 degrees was set 118 years ago, during very early observations at Central Park.

More impressive, without a doubt, were the widespread single digit temperatures and strong winds which combined to yield wind chill values from -10 to -25. The arctic front which passed through the area early on Monday brought gusty west winds and 850mb temperatures of -25 to -30 C, by far the coldest air of the season to date. The airmass wasn’t unprecedented, however, as these type of polar intrusions have certainly occurred before. The piece of the polar vortex which surged through our area tucked to the south of a powerhouse low pressure system bombing out over Eastern Canada, which helped strengthen the pressure gradient and surface winds.

850mb temperatures dropped to near -30 C throughout the area on Tuesday morning as a piece of the polar vortex shifted overhead.

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