Doug Simonian

Organized severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon/evening

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The thunderstorm season has been pretty active so far throughout the Northeast, but this has not necessarily translated all the way to the coastal areas and the major I-95 cities. This is about to change, come Tuesday, as one of the better setups for severe weather we have seen in some time looks to take shape.

The synoptic weather pattern evolving has similarities to a lot of the better Northeast severe weather events dating back to the early 2000s. There is a large heat ridge in the Desert Southwest which extends east through the Southern Plains and Missouri Valley. To its north, there will be a rigorous shortwave diving down Southern Canada and heading east and southeast towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Over the top of the ridge and south of the shortwave, mid-level westerlies get accelerated rapidly. This helps with two things:

1) It leads to strong deep-layer wind shear with a westerly mid-level flow that is typically required for our area to have its best thunderstorms.

2) It helps to advect an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) into the area, which has roots from the Desert Southwest. The fast westerlies push it into our area.

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John Homenuk

Heavy rain, gusty winds early Sunday morning

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, currently tracking through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley, will make a move toward our area later tonight into early Sunday morning. The presence of a very moist atmosphere and lots of lift for precipitation will aid in the threat for a period of heavy rain, late Saturday Night into early on Sunday throughout much of New Jersey, NYC, Connecticut and Long Island. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible.

A localized threat for flooding may emerge, as rainfall will become particularly intense along an area of enhanced lift for precipitation. This area of lift will move from southwest to northeast through the area early on Sunday morning. As it does so, very heavy rain with rumbles of thunder are likely — and urban/poor drainage areas will be especially prone to flooding.

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John Homenuk

TS Bill’s remnants still an uncertainty this weekend

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Much has been made over the past few days in regards to the potential for heavy rain on Sunday. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are anticipated, by many forecast models, to move northeastward from the Ohio and Mississippi Valley’s into the Northeast States. A weak developing surface low near the area of the mid level disturbance is expected to aid in the development of heavy rain from the Mid Atlantic northeastward toward parts of the Northeast as well, as the system shifts toward the coast.

The problem, however, is that remnants of Tropical systems are unpredictable by nature. The high moisture, high energy, and intricate nature of the pattern in the mid levels of the atmosphere makes it very difficult on forecast models to try and pin down specifics. For us, this means an uncertain weekend forecast. And, yes, the potential that Sunday may turn out to be not quite a washout at all.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Nicer Friday, but unsettled weekend expected

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After a “dud” of a day on Thursday, things are at least looking partially “up” for the weekend. Temperatures on Thursday throughout most of the area barely escaped the 60’s and 70’s, with low clouds and drizzle remaining commonplace during the day. A cool, marine flow can be thanked for that. Much of the same is expected through the first half of the evening on Thursday as well, although some increase in humidity should be notable.

By Friday morning, things will start to change for the better. Temperatures will rebound into the 80’s during the day on Friday, with partly cloudy skies anticipated. The marine layer from Thursday will be scoured out of the area, allowing for sunshine to return. The big game changer? Winds turn westerly during the morning — a big difference from Thursday, when they were coming out of the south and east, off the cool area waters.

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