John Homenuk

(Premium) Long Range: Winter may take one final stand

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While visions of 80 degree temperatures still dance in the heads of many after the warmth which surged into the area last week, old man winter many have been conjuring up one last surprise for us all.

It is, after all, still March. Calendar winter continues until the 20th of the month. With the atmospheric pattern undergoing major changes over the next few days, the record-breaking warmth will become a memory. Instead, colder high pressure to our north, the return of a ridge near the West Coast of the United States, and an incoming piece of atmospheric energy will become the main headlines. And yes, the teleconnections involved in the pattern could support wintry weather.

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Miguel Pierre

More Clouds on Sunday, Chilly and Wet for Monday

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Spring-like weather has continued so far this weekend, and although temperatures are not warm as we experienced on Wednesday and Thursday, they have hovered 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Unfortunately, the enjoyable weather and sunshine are on borrowed time, and the weather will start going downhill by Sunday night.

Tonight, a weak cold front will push south through region — remaining mostly dry. High clouds will limit more radiational cooling and keep temperatures higher than Friday Night. Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 40s for much of the area overnight, with some of interior valleys getting perhaps down into upper 30s.

Sunday will start with sunshine filtering through high clouds. Then clouds will thicken and increase during afternoon hours from south to north across the region. There is a slight chance for a few showers later Sunday afternoon with a warm front our south, mainly over Central or Southern New Jersey. High pressure will likely keep rest of the area dry. Temperatures will still reach the upper 50 to lower 60s during the afternoon.

12z NAM showing rainfall with easterly winds and chilly temperatures on Monday

12z NAM showing rainfall with easterly winds and chilly temperatures on Monday

Skies will be mostly cloudy Sunday night. Winds will turn more easterly tonight bringing in marine layer. Increasing warm air-advection aloft could cause more showers to develop during the night. By Monday, a small wave of low pressure developing along Delmarva coast will bring more rain. It will be cold and raw, with onshore winds and rain keep temperatures from getting out the 40s. A modest low-level jet with this low could enhance more lifting for moderate to heavy rain at times.

Low pressure moves east of region Monday night. Rain likely taper off to some showers or drizzle, with winds turning more northerly. More showers and drizzle are possible Tuesday morning with a shortwave and another low pressure developing near the New Jersey coast. This system will move away from region Tuesday afternoon, with clouds perhaps breaking for some sunshine. Temperatures may head back above normal into upper 50s to lower 60s.

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John Homenuk

Gorgeous weather will continue through Thursday

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Southwesterly winds have taken over the areas weather late this morning, helping to advect in a very warm airmass from the south and west. Temperatures will continue to increase over the next few hours, with record high temperatures in jeopardy throughout the area. This will be especially true over interior New Jersey, where high temperatures may approach 80 degrees at peak heating this afternoon. Closer to the coast, southerly winds may begin to usher in a slightly cooler, more damp airmass at that time.

The wind direction was a major factor in contributing to a seabreeze which developed on Tuesday. Temperatures reached into the mid 60’s, but then quickly dropped near the coast as winds turned southeasterly, off the cooler ocean waters. On Wednesday, a deeper southwesterly flow will help to keep many areas warmer and the seabreeze at bay (no pun intended). Yet, over Long Island, a more southerly component to the wind will still bring in cooler ocean air. Such is life on the island in meteorological Spring.

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John Homenuk

Mesoscale boundaries will have impact on temperature forecast

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Warm air will take over the area’s weather during the middle part of this week, as temperatures will soar into the middle and upper 70’s on Wednesday and Thursday. Much of this warmth can be attributed to a strong upper level trough over Mexico and now the South-Central Gulf States. This trough has pumped up a ridge over the Eastern US, allowing a deep southwesterly flow to take hold in much of the atmospheric column. This flow will allow for the aforementioned warm surge and support temperatures in the 70’s.

However, meandering to the Northeast will be an area of troughiness over New England and the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. High pressure will nudge into these areas during the latter half of this week, essentially flexing its muscles as the ridge over our heads weakens in amplitude just slightly. A notable (and quite impressive) thermal gradient will develop over New England, more affectionately known as a “backdoor cold front”, and will push southwestward a bit toward Southern New England.

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