Miguel Pierre

Occluded front with showers this afternoon, Strong T-storms possible tomorrow

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After a little sunshine to start early this morning, it has turned more dreary and dismal. A warm front south of region, has more clouds to increase and thicken over the area with few scattered showers and drizzle. An occluded frontal boundary will move through region later today, with more showers increasing in coverage this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with south to southeast winds, ahead of this boundary and keep temperatures mostly the in the 60s this afternoon.

Heaviest showers are most likely with forcing along the shortwave trough be northwest of the region. Precipitable water values range from 1.50″ to 1.75″. So heavy downpours with localized flooding is possible. Some elevated instability this afternoon with MUCAPE values near 500 J/KG. So there is also chance for some rumbles of thunder. But models are also showing a marine stable layer with CINH, that could cause any thunderstorms to weaken as they approach the coast.

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Miguel Pierre

Beautiful weather today, some showers and t-storms around Friday & Saturday

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Another beautiful day is in-store for the region today. An upper-level ridge over the region will provide the region with clear blue skies and plenty of sunshine today. Temperatures should reach the middle to upper 70s across inland sections of the area. However, light southeast winds will keep temperatures cooler along the coast this afternoon. Temperatures will likely reach upper the 60s to lower 70s by early this afternoon closer to coast, especially over Long Island, New Jersey shore and Coastal Connecticut. Then temperatures will slowly fall along coastal sections for the rest of the day, as a seabreeze looks to develop.

The NAM showing temperatures in middle to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s with light SE winds later today.

The NAM showing temperatures in middle to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s with light SE winds later today (Image credit: PSU Ewall)

Skies will remain mostly clear into early this evening, then become mostly cloudy later tonight as low-level moisture increases with onshore flow and a marine inversion. But it will likely remain dry overnight, with temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 50s. Then the region will be under the influence of large upper-level low traversing through the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next several days.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium: Another ULL next week, warm temperatures follow

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It’s May 11th, which means it’s getting in the late meteorological Spring season. Many of us often look forward to even warmer weather as we approach Memorial Day weekend and the beginning of meteorological summer. But the seasonal trends with blocking causing cool air intrusions are continuing over the last couple weeks, with omega blocking becoming a dominant presence. Now some high-latitude blocking is returning again for another cooler week of weather. But how cool will it actually be? And when will warmer weather return? We discuss more details on the overall pattern evolution for the rest of this month.

We start with a -EPO blocking ridge over Alaska. Shortwave energy coming downstream of this ridge will phase into a closed upper-level low over the Great Lakes later this week. Initially, this will cause heights to build over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Western Atlantic. More southerly flow around this high pressure will cause temperatures to rise near or slightly above normal for this coming Wednesday and Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Premium: Warmer than normal temperatures by late May

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The news many have awaited for several weeks is finally here: We are forecasting the return of above average temperatures by the end of May. For the past few weeks, the hemispheric pattern has been stuck in a bit of a rut. High latitude blocking has maintained its control over the pattern, on both the Pacific and the Atlantic sides, forcing the development of anomalous cutoff lows and troughs into the Northern 1/3 of the United States. Colder than normal air with unsettled weather has been the dominant sensible weather in our area.

The transition out of this pattern is already underway. While high latitude blocking on the Pacific side (a -EPO) will again flex its muscles late this week, it will be more of a parting shot than anything else. An upper level low will form, as a response to the -EPO ridging, and push into the Great Lakes. But its presence will be mainly progressive, as a front swings through our area and the upper level trough elongates and moves to our northeast.

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