Miguel Pierre

Large, Complex Storm Shaping up for Monday and Tuesday

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After bitter and record-breaking cold this weekend, attention turns to another storm for tomorrow. This will be a large, complex storm system that will impact the region starting at around Noon. Low pressure will organize over the Southeast United States on Monday, as high pressure slides out to sea. This combination will push a warm front northward through the Mid-Atlantic region during the day tomorrow. Light snow is likely to spread from southwest to northeast during the afternoon hours.

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Doug Simonian

(Premium) Comparing This Arctic Blast to 2014 and 2015

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The big debate among weather enthusiasts and meteorologists alike is whether NYC (Central Park) will hit zero or below tonight. This has not happened since 1994, and common opinion is that climate change along with the Urban Heat Island Effect would prevent NYC from ever going below zero again. While that thought process is not necessarily without merit, tonight is definitely the best shot NYC has had to go zero or below since 1994 — and perhaps should be even colder than the Arctic outbreaks from the past two seasons.

On February 20th, 2015, NYC got down to +2F, and on January 7th, 2014, NYC got down to +4F. There are certain criteria we look for to see how cold it can get in NYC: 1) 850mb temperatures, as they are a good indicator of the airmass, 2) Timing and degree of cold air advection — NYC due to the Urban Heat Island Effect does not cool off very much from radiational cooling, so they are very reliant on cold air advection, 3) Wind direction — generally a more northerly flow can more efficiently draw trapped colder surface air from the valleys, whereas a more westerly component has the tendency to downslope off the Appalachians and thus moderate somewhat when it hits us, and 4) Degree of mixing — if the surface air “mixes” with the airmass aloft, not as much cold air will be trapped at the surface, making it hard to truly go below zero.

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Miguel Pierre

(Premium) Record Breaking Cold Possible Sunday Morning… Another Storm Next Week?

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A piece or lobe of the Polar Vortex will swing south over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This supports an Arctic front passing through Friday night. Some snow showers or snow squalls are possible again tomorrow night with this front. Behind this front will be a potentially historic cold airmass for parts of Northeast. Saturday will see temperatures fall from the lower 20s to teens and single digits during the afternoon hours. Winds will also be increasing, as wind gusts between 30mph to 40mph are possible during the day. Thus, windchills will drop to near or below zero and may approach dangerous levels by Saturday evening.

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John Homenuk

Coldest air of winter to arrive this weekend

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A large arctic airmass, owing to a piece of the polar vortex, will drop southward late this week and weekend from Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast United States. With it will come the coldest air of the winter — and the coldest air in quite some time, especially aloft. Temperatures at 850mb, or roughly 5000 feet, will drop to nearly -30 degrees celsius, challenging some records for temperatures at that level in the Northeast US for the date.

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