Good morning and Happy Monday! It’s a rough one out there this morning. Showers continue throughout the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, with temperatures in the 50’s and a very damp airmass in place. This weather is generally expected to persist today, but it will be particularly cool this morning. Bring a jacket and an umbrella along with you.
Over the next 24-48 hours, this page will be continually updated with information on Hurricane Florence. The live blog below serves as a constant feed of information. Check back here for the very latest details as the storm strengthens.
Tropical Storm Florence is getting ready to put on a show. The storm has been floundering for a few days now, battling moderate wind shear and less than ideal water temperatures. It has maintained Tropical Storm status, but has weakened quite a bit with structural deficiencies very apparent on visible satellite imagery as recently as last night. Things have changed quite a bit so far today, with the storm regaining structure and beginning to intensify.
Forecast models are in good agreement that the storm will begin to intensify later today and Sunday, as wind shear weakens and it begins to traverse increasingly warm water. The situation becomes more precarious in the next few days, as the environment around Florence becomes conducive for rapid strengthening. Forecast models suggest the system will restrengthen into a Major Hurricane as it accelerates westward, on a track perilously close to the United States. The NHC is forecasting rapid intensification.
“What would normally happen in this scenario?” Most meteorologists would be uncomfortable telling you how many times we utter this phrase in our own heads, but the truth is that it happens quite often. In all honesty, this method usually serves as a bit of a reality check; what kind of analog years can we use to compare this upcoming storm to, and how did similar scenarios evolve in the past? This forecasting process isn’t fool proof, but it usually works out – properly weighting past events into forecasts helps produce a more reasonable expectation.
But there are times when it simply doesn’t apply – where model guidance shows a highly unusual pattern ahead, so much so that past events will do no good to help us understand what will evolve. Hurricane Florence may very well be a shining example of just that.