John Homenuk

First Chase Day

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It really does feel like Christmas morning! The first chase day of 2018 is upon us. We’re in Nebraska, heading westward towards the Nebraska Panhandle later this morning. Forecast models are in good agreement on the overall setup later today, but the setup itself presents a tremendous amount of complications and subtleties (when does it not?) that will make it a very difficult chase. The first chase usually is the toughest and today does not look to be any different.

The synoptics of the setup features favorable moisture return into the upslope regions of Colorado and Wyoming with favorably positioned instability developing amid a swath of notable mid level winds. This mid level wind maxima shifts eastward into Colorado later today with 500hPa wind speeds exceeding 55kts by 21z. The NAM and HRRR as well as other convective allowing models are in good agreement on this.

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John Homenuk

Day 1: Back home in Minneapolis

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I love Minneapolis. I’m so excited to be heading here for our first few days. After spending a year here in 2017, Minneapolis will always feel like home to me. It’s odd, really, knowing that you will end up back somewhere. It’s a weird feeling to be certain of something in your mind – but I am certain that I will end up back in Minneapolis sometime soon. The city is far too welcoming, exciting, and energetic for me to leave it behind. Nevertheless, enough about me – there are other exciting things to discuss!

The long awaited, discussed and debated 2018 Storm Chasing trip is finally here. On Friday morning, we will boarding a 7:00am flight out of JFK en route to Minneapolis. The weather is going to cooperate. Temperatures there are likely to be in the 90’s, which all but certainly will set the tone for the trip ahead. After careful analysis of the weather pattern, we’ve decided not to chase storms for the first two days.

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John Homenuk

Tornado Outlook: The first few days

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The time has come, friends! Packing is well underway, important shipments are on their way to Minneapolis, cameras are charging and ready. We are just a few days away from the beginning of our 2018 Storm Chase, and we could not be more excited to get started. A lot has gone into planning this and making it all come together, and the time has come now to let the atmosphere take over.

By now, most everyone is aware that this has been a quiet severe weather season across the Plains (and entire United States, for that matter). Tornado counts are among the lowest ever for this time of year, and the Storm Prediction Center hasn’t issued a Tornado Watch in the Central United States in sixteen days and counting. The atmosphere simply hasn’t cooperated to produce setups conducive for supercells and severe thunderstorms consistently.

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John Homenuk

T-Minus 7 Days

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My parents told me there’d be days like this.

It’s been about four months since we decided to schedule a storm chasing trip during the peak climatological period for supercells in the Plains  – comfortably from the end of May into the very early part of June. It is only fitting, then, that forecast model guidance is suggesting one of the most quiet periods of the entire season right smack in the middle of our trip. We’ll get to that later.

The “fun” part of the trip has just gotten in to full swing, as preparations are fully underway. We’re making some of our final preps in regards to the technology and equipment. This includes the big stuff like cameras and cars, and the little stuff like weather radios and power inverters. Side note: It’s been really difficult to find a laptop mount that features an easy install for a rental car. Something to keep in mind for those of you who are planning to do something similar soon.

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