Doug Simonian

Update on Sunday into Monday’s Rain Event

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We hope you’re having a great weekend so far! This article is going to be a quick blurb on the latest regarding the upcoming rain event. It still appears that most of Sunday’s batch of rain will miss to the north, as most of a small shortwave will miss to the north and get shredded out when it tries to approach our area. The thermal gradient via a warm front will be quite impressive, which will lead to a lot of lift in the atmosphere. Thus, some heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible in our northern suburbs from northern Westchester County on northward — perhaps more focused on Orange and Dutchess Counties or even further north, where some heavy rain is possible.

The NAM model valid for Sunday afternoon shows some heavy rain in northern suburbs along a tight 850mb gradient.

The NAM model valid for Sunday afternoon shows some heavy rain in northern suburbs along a tight 850mb gradient.

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John Homenuk

Transitional weather will continue this weekend

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Meteorological summer began today, and it did so without much fanfare. An unsettled and transitional weather pattern, which has existed throughout the Northeast states over the past few days, has remained stout and looks to continue to do so into the first and possibly second week of June. In the short term, this means continually unsettled weather with temperatures averaging near or slightly below average for this time of year.

Showers and thunderstorms were a common theme over the past few days, with one day in particular featuring severe thunderstorms and an EF-1 tornado in Dutchess county. But colder air aloft is now settling into the Northeast states, in response to an upper level low which will meander in our region over the next few days. This has, in addition to the unsettled weather, been a common theme since May — high latitude ridging is forcing these upper level lows southward and into Southeast Canada and the Northeast.

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Miguel Pierre

Significant Severe Weather Threat for the Deep South Sunday

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For several weeks now, we have been discussing the likelihood of an active pattern developing throughout the United States — in particular, the potential for severe weather. That pattern has finally arrived over the past several days, and another in a series of potential severe weather events is expected to unfold on Sunday across the South Central United States in parts of Texas and Louisiana on Sunday.

The potential for severe weather, while in a higher-end space than an “average” event, features considerable uncertainties even at this short range forecast juncture. We detail the intricacies of the setup and how we expect things to evolve on Sunday below.

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John Homenuk

PM Zone Update: Myriad of hazards in Northeast US on Friday

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An active pattern, discussed for several weeks, has finally arrived over the past several days. Its impacts will continue to be felt late this week into parts of the weekend. Despite some drier and more pleasant weather on Wednesday and Thursday, another significant storm system is already organizing over the Central United States. This storm system is currently producing severe weather in the Mississippi River Valley and its moisture will continue to shift towards the Northeast States.

The first sign of its arrival will be increasingly thick clouds which will lower as the evening goes on. Precipitation will then develop northeastwards from the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the Northeast states from late Thursday Night into Friday. For much of the Mid Atlantic and Coastal Southern New England, precipitation will begin as rain — although some ice pellets are possible as the atmosphere begins to moisten up over Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey.

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