John Homenuk

Cold shot increasingly likely in the Northeast this weekend

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A few weeks ago, while stagnant warmth continued to sit stubbornly East of the Mississippi River, the hemispheric weather pattern underwent a significant change. A pattern in the Pacific Ocean that had (not coincidentally) also been stagnant, finally budged. A large-scale retrogression of the wave pattern resulted in a dramatically changed pattern both in the Pacific and throughout the United States.

Two weeks later, an anomalous ridge has formed in the North/Central Pacific Ocean (known more affectionately as a -EPO) and has effectively dislodged arctic air from the higher latitudes into British Columbia, Western Canada, and the Northwestern United States. This has resulted in a large, persistently colder than normal temperature anomaly across these regions.

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John Homenuk

AM Update: Warmth returns to east, but for how long?

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Good morning and Happy Wednesday to you all. There is something oddly special about the first day of November in the meteorological community. It’s not a holiday, it’s not the start of any official season. But it has significance for many who forecast or follow the weather – it’s the beginning of “winter season” per se, where the forecasts for the weeks and months ahead start to have more significant implications on what we can expect during winter.

As we move into November this year, the weather pattern will be dominated by a large -EPO ridge, developing in the Pacific Ocean as we speak. We discussed yesterday in detail how these EPO ridges can impact the weather pattern throughout the hemisphere. In this case, the large ridge in the Northern Pacific Ocean will act to dislodge colder than normal air from the arctic regions into British Columbia, and eventually the Northwestern United States as well.

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John Homenuk

Strong storm expected in the Northeast this weekend

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Amidst an anomalous pattern, which features a large ridge in the Western United States and a changeable Pacific Ocean wave progression, sensible weather changes have been observed across the Continental United States. Nowhere is this more apparent this morning than Minnesota, where snow is on the ground across much of the Central and Northern parts of the State after a very warm October. Nationally, though, the anomalous warmth has gone on a hiatus as well, as the Western USA ridge acts to promote cooler air surging southward.

These anomalous patterns on either of our coasts can often preclude multiple storm threats, including the potential for larger ones, and this pattern will be no different. After a handful of storm systems in the Central US and Great Lakes will come a larger, more significant storm threat later this weekend in the Northeast States. A deep trough is expected to dig into the Mississippi River Valley this weekend, interacting with energy over the Southeastern United States.

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John Homenuk

Volatile pattern arrives with multiple storm chances across US

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The days of prolonged warm and benign weather have begun to come to a close across the Central and Eastern USA as we begin the work week, as a volatile weather pattern begins to set in. Happy Monday! After discussing impending changes for several days, and looking to the Pacific Ocean for signals as to when and why the changes would occur, they will finally arrive – with a dramatic pattern change especially across the Central United States.

As a large ridge builds along the Western USA shores, in response to a retrograding Pacific Ocean pattern, colder air will surge south into the Central United States by way of a deep, anomalous trough sliding southward from Canada. Air temperatures will fall much below normal across the majority of these regions as the trough shifts southward, and a low pressure system will develop from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes later this week.

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