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Mild and Unsettled Pattern Begins to Take Shape

February 12, 2018/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

The dreary and wet conditions that took over back on Saturday afternoon have finally begun to break as a cold front pushed through the Northeast this morning and early afternoon. Rainfall amounts were in the moderate range for most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with locations closer to the immediate coast seeing totals in the 2-4″ range. Widespread was not recorded due to most of the Mid Atlantic and sections of the Northeast actually being in a drought do to a lack of any substantial precipitation over the past few months. Luckily, this recent rainfall was very beneficial to the area, and may have been able to knock some locations back to around normal precipitation departures. Regardless, most of the area saw their Monday start off rather mild, with highs being recorded in the morning hours over a large portion of the Northeast. This was due to a cold front that has been lagging begin the main system which actually pushed offshore last night with the remaining bulk of the heavy rain. As this cold front moved through portions of the Northeast, the cold air was quick enough on the backside to catch up to the remaining precipitation and cause a very brief mix of rain/snow/grauple. These spotty areas of mixing were quite light and brief in nature, so no accumulations were recorded. Conditions became rather calm, with even some patchy sun showing up for the middle and later afternoon hours, as temperatures over the region leveled off in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Conditions should remain quite dry, but occasionally a bit gusty as drier Canadian air filters into the region tonight. A strong area of high pressure will also be gradually building in over the Northeast from west to east, so this will ease winds overnight and cause clouds to gradually subside. Lows should be rather cold, with location around the NY metro area likely seeing temperatures in the lower to middle 20’s, with locations off to the north and west likely getting down into the teens with good radiational cooling.

This evenings latest surface temperatures from the HRRR with surface observations and the regional radar mosaic showing a rather calm, but cooler night taking shape

Tuesday Into Thursday

Tomorrow should start off rather clear and cold, as the aforementioned strong high pressure system continues to move over the Northeast. A fast zonal (west to east) jet streak will still be dominating the pattern across the entire country. This mean that any system over the next couple of days will be moving very quickly across the United States, with no time to amplify or strengthen. This will be the case throughout the entire day on Tuesday as some shredded-off energy from a decaying system over the west moves into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. This energy is too insignificant to cause anything other than some high-level cirrus clouds during the afternoon hours tomorrow as the jet stream roars overhead. Highs tomorrow should be rather seasonable, with temperatures likely staying in the middle to upper 30’s, with some locations off to the south of the city possibly getting into the lower 40’s. Tranquil conditions will last well into the evening and overnight hours, as radiational cooling allows lows to drop once more into the middle to upper 20’s, with locations off to the north and west in the lower 20’s.

Mid level ridging will begin to build over the Plains during the day on Wednesday, leading to southwesterly flow increasing quite a bit over the Mid Atlantic and Northeastern states. This will begin to cause the classic response of mid level temperatures rising as well as moisture beginning to stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin to develop over the Southeast Wednesday afternoon, with some of that moisture possibly making it into the central parts of the Mid Atlantic before dark. Conditions will likely turn at least mostly cloudy during the day as increased moisture leads to the development of mid level clouds over much of the Northeast. Despite the clouds, temperatures should be quite mild, with highs likely getting into the middle to upper 40’s, with some locations likely hitting the lower 50’s. The threat for some showers will gradually increase as the night goes on, with showers likely moving in around 10pm or so for the New York metro area. Lows will be much more tame on Wednesday night, with readings likely staying in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.

Thursday will be the first much above normal day in the period as a trough over the Western US states continues to cause the downstream strengthening of ridging over the East. Moisture from the Gulf will continue to move northward over the entire Northeast, likely leading to a wet start to the day on Thursday. As mentioned earlier, the mid level disturbance responsible for this rain will be so disorganized and moving so quickly that only light rainfall amounts are expected. The exact temperature forecast is a little complicated at this time and will depend on just how quickly the rain showers will be able to move out, but it certainly looks like highs should be able to rise well into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s across much of the Mid Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast. Conditions will likely remain unsettled with spotty showers possible throughout the rest of the evening and overnight hours, as another in a series of weak disturbances pass through the Ohio Valley

This afternoon European ensembles showing a high probability of temperature anomalies reaching 20 degrees above normal on Thursday!

Mixed and Mild Weekend Ahead

The same pattern looks to almost certainly continue through this weekend as the southerly flow increases once more on Friday ahead of a large area of disorganized energy out over the Plains . A more moderate rain event may be in the cards starting on Friday as more Gulf moisture becomes available over the South. A cold front behind this system looks to temporarily cool things down a bit late in the day on Friday, but Saturday looks to still be a slightly above normal day across the East as mid level ridging starts to buil over the Plains once more. This area of ridging looks to strengthen quite a bit over the east on Sunday, allowing high pressure to get pushed off of the east coast and provide strong southerly flow once more for the entire area. This looks to set the stage for an even larger warm-up next week as some models are depicting a very deep trough to set up in the west, which would be strongly supportive of much above average temperatures lasting through the week next week. In fact, this afternoons European model had many locations across the Northeast well into the 70’s by next Thursday! This can very easily change over the next couple of days, but we will continue to monitor this period of prolonged above normal temperatures!

This afternoons European ensembles showing a very warm pattern shaping up in the medium range across the East

Have a great night!

Steven Copertino

Sunday Briefing: More Rain Today, Then Progressive Pattern for the Northeast

February 11, 2018/by Miguel Pierre

Happy Sunday! A frontal boundary remains stalled over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Waves of low pressure will continue to run, along this front today, with more periods of rain, that may be moderate to heavy at times, this afternoon and early this evening. Temperatures will remain mild in the upper 40s to middle 50s throughout the region, with a southwest flow. Some spots could reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, especially over Southern NJ and Southeast PA. Some areas of patchy fog with reduced visibilites will also be around in some areas, especially when rain intensity decreases.

Saturday Briefing: Heavy Rainfall Likely Tonight and Sunday

February 10, 2018/1 Comment/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning, friends! You may have noticed it’s a bit warmer outside – and you are correct, as temperatures have warmed in advance of an approaching storm system in the Northeast states. Temperatures will remain mild for much of the weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary, with highs reaching into the 50’s in many areas (Away from the high elevations). With this gift will come a curse, as warm air advection ushers in increasing moisture and approaching lift in the atmosphere the that will bring an increasing potential for heavy rain by Saturday afternoon.

Heavy Rain Likely This Weekend, Mild and Unsettled Through Next Week

February 9, 2018/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

Today has been another cold, but relatively calm day across much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Some weak lift associated with a frontal boundary over the region has spark some patchy areas of light snow and snow flurries, mainly confined to the western parts of New York State as well as southern New York and northern New Jersey. These areas of precipitation will gradually shift north over the rest of the evening as the frontal boundary and lift also begin to gain more latitude. Since precip rates will be rather low and conditions are not ideal for snow accumulations, only a trace is expected for the locations that manage to see more sustained light snow. Otherwise, high pressure retreating off of the Mid Atlantic coast will contribute to more southerly flow this evening, which will begin to bring in a more mild airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Additionally, moisture will begin to increase and this will likely cause the rest of the evening to remain rather cloudy. Lows this evening will come quite early in the evening as the warm air moving into the mid levels of the atmosphere will also help to warm things up tonight after midnight. Most of the area will see lows in the upper 20’s to middle 30’s, but these will rise into the middle to upper 30’s during the overnight hours, with come locations in southern New Jersey likely reaching the 40’s.

This afternoons current surface observations, regional radar mosaic, and high resolution satellite imagery showing a cold day across the region with areas of light snow

Heavy Rain Likely Sunday

Saturday will likely start off rather mild and with substantial overcast as mid to low level warm air and moisture continue to stream in over the region from the south. This surge in mild temperatures and moisture will be thanks to a large, but disorganized area of mid level energy extending from the West coast, all the way into the Great Lakes. Additionally, the sub-tropical jet stream will also be getting involved by pumping moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast United States, creating a large area of showers and thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually work their way north during the day on Saturday, likely working their way into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by the late afternoon hours. Conditions will almost certainly remain unsettled with a chance of showers lasting well into the evening hours. Highs on Saturday will be quite mild, with most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast likely getting into the lower 40’s, with some locations to the south possibly seeing highs in the lower 50’s! We’ll have the same situation tomorrow night as we did tonight, were temperatures during the overnight hours actually rise, with temperatures likely getting well into the 40’s and even middle 50’s for portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New Jersey.

Conditions should really deteriorate during the early morning hours of Sunday morning, as warm/moist air surges ahead of semi-stationary frontal boundary out over the Ohio Valley. Early Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours should virtually be a washout, with a threat of heavy downpours across much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The main batch of moderate to heavy rain should gradually push north and east off the coast during the middle afternoon hours, but there will still be a threat of some steady showers ahead of the last concentrated batch of rain. This last batch looks to come into the Northeast around 6-8pm on Sunday, with some locally heavy rainfall likely. This area of showers will also have a chance at producing some gusty winds as the low level jet streak a few thousand feet above the ground begins to strengthen. Rainfall totals should be above an inch for interior sections of the Northeast, with higher amounts around 1.5-2″ closer to the coast. The threat for stream flooding is rather low at this time, but there could be some urban flooding in locations that are prone to poor drainage. However, this will be highly dependent on just how much rain falls over the six to twelve hours or so on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be quite impressive, with readings likely breaking into the 50’s areawide ahead of the cold front. Some locations to the south may even make a solid run at the 60’s later in the evening on Sunday.

This afternoons NAM model showing the progression of the heavy rain set to impact the region into Sunday night

Unsettled and Mild Next Week

A frontal boundary will move across the Northeast and off the Mid Atlantic coast by Monday afternoon, which should be able to kick most of the moist/unstable airmass out of the region temporarily. Temperatures should moderate back into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s for the most part on Monday and Tuesday, but the large and disorganized area of mid level energy out over the west will begin to undergo a change. This system will gradually drift south and begin to break off from the main upper level flow, causing another period of zonal winds to rage from west to east over the country. As these zonal winds take over, we’ll see more moisture begin to surge northward from the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. As this moisture moves over the region, temperatures will once again return to well-above normal across the Northeast. In fact, this afternoon European model even shows the potential for the NYC to get into the 60’s by Thursday, which would likely challenge some records. The best threat for rain appears to be on Thursday as the bulk of the Gulf moisture moves up and over the Northeast. It is too early to say whether or not there will be a heavy rain threat from this system, but we will certainly be monitoring things over the next week or so and provide updates when needed!

The European Ensembles probability of reaching/exceeding 50 degrees by next Thursday-showing a rather high chance over portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast

Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

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