Doug Simonian

Beautiful weather to return

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Good afternoon! After the first true autumnal cold front marched through the region on Sunday, we have had very refreshing conditions — pleasant, low-humidity afternoons, and cool, crisp nights, with widespread 50s for lows. As some would say, we have had “hoodie weather.” While a big part of that is because of the cold front ushering in a cool and dry airmass, it’s also because we have had onshore flow from a high pressure to our northeast. As we move forward to tomorrow, the flow will turn offshore, which will allow for sunnier skies and warmer temperatures.

Meanwhile, another very cool, pleasant night is in-store for tonight. Some areas well inland or in the Pine Barrens could fall into the 40s, but most areas will have lows in the 50s. Skies will gradually clear as well.

A new area of high pressure will move in from the west, which will cause the onshore flow and lead to sunnier skies and warmer temperatures tomorrow. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s, with continued low humidity, crisp blue skies, and light winds as well. It’ll pretty much be the perfect day.

With the slightly warmer airmass, tomorrow night may be slightly warmer in the city than tonight, though it’ll still be quite the refreshing night with lows in the low 60s. Most other areas will have ideal radiational cooling conditions, meaning temperatures will fall into the 50s once again.

By the time Friday rolls around, that new high pressure system will also slide to our east, giving us essentially a repeat of yesterday and today’s weather, as the flow once again returns to being offshore. Thus, more clouds and slightly chillier weather looks to be in-store for Friday and Saturday, but it will still feel extremely pleasant during the day, and refreshingly cool at night.

Then we watch and hope that a storm system developing on Sunday stays to our south and keeps clouds away for the upcoming Supermoon Eclipse.

John Homenuk

Pleasant weather for the foreseeable future

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This time of year, in this part of the country, it’s not often that we can write a headline like the one above. The current weather pattern, however, dictates otherwise — and that pattern looks to continue for at least the next several days. Incredibly pleasant, benign weather will continue through the remainder of this work week and into the weekend. Temperatures will slowly warm each day, but remain very comfortable. A light breeze will accompany mostly clear skies.

Only a weekend cold front looks to interrupt the forecast, but most models keep moisture limited and precipitation very spotty as a result. Temperatures will trend a bit cooler as it passes, but are expected to recover only a day or two after. This takes our forecast into early next week which, in terms of forecasting accurately, is an eternity.

The pattern is a result of a progressive trend — very little amplitude on either the West or East Coast of the United States. Most disturbances are still tracking well to our north over Central Canada, and dry calm air is settled from the Central through the Eastern United States. A strong disturbance will have to amplify to buck the this trend, and no forecast model indicates that occurring within a week’s time. It’s essentially a summer-like pattern with the jet stream very far north, but just with a bit of modification due to the time of year.

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John Homenuk

Coastal storm, periods of rain on Thursday

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It has been quite a while since rain threatened the forecast in our area. It has been even longer since rain threatened the forecast over a widespread part of the forecast area. Both will be accomplished on Thursday, as a coastal storm moves off the Mid Atlantic coast southeast of Long Island. While a blanket of heavy rain isn’t expected to overspread the entire region, periodic rain with cloudy and unsettled conditions are in the forecast on Thursday.

The coastal system will be the first in many months, forming as a result of a weak mid level atmospheric disturbance over the Middle Atlantic states. This system will shift east/northeastward and allow the developing surface low to skirt offshore. The resulting forcing for precipitation to the northwest of the surface low will allow for the development of rain, which may be periodically heavy thanks to tropical moisture present in the atmosphere.

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Doug Simonian

Another lovely weekend, but the drought will continue

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Good afternoon! In case you haven’t noticed, it’s still quite hot outside, as temperatures are around 90 degrees with mostly sunny skies. It is somewhat humid, though the humidity is not unbearable, as heat indexes will generally be right around the actual air temperatures. This is why despite the prolonged stretch of hot weather, we have not had any heat advisories issued for the area. That being said, this weather is still much more suitable for the beach and the pool than for doing any strenuous outdoor activities.

Fortunately, some temporary relief is on the way, as a cold front will be approaching the area tonight. It has Canadian origins, so the front is moisture-starved. This will prevent widespread thunderstorms, but clouds may increase during the late afternoon, through the night, and tomorrow. The front’s biggest effects will be a change to much cooler and less humid conditions for Friday and Saturday. Of course, without any true rainfall in the forecast, the drought will continue. Most areas are in the “abnormally dry” category, indicated by the yellow, but there is a growing area of “moderate” drought, which is indicated by the tan area. Over the next couple of weeks, it is possible that the entire area will be under a moderate drought.

Here are the weather highlights over the next few days:

  • Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, but they will not be widespread enough for anyone to cancel their plans. Clouds and a couple of isolated showers could linger into Friday morning.
  • With the front to our south on Friday, it will be much cooler with very low humidity. Skies will start out mostly cloudy but will eventually become partly sunny as the afternoon goes on; the clouds will never completely burn off. High temperatures will be in the low 80s, as the flow will become onshore. The onshore flow will help make coastal areas be somewhat breezy at times throughout the day.
  • Friday night will have a cooler, crisper feel, with temperatures generally falling into the upper 50s, but low to mid 60s in urban areas.
  • Saturday looks gorgeous, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s, with continued low humidity as high pressure will dominate. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s in most locations, with 60s in urban locations.
  • The high pressure will slide offshore on Sunday, leading to a return flow and thus the return of heat and humidity. Sunday will be the transition day, so it still looks to be a nice day with highs in the mid to upper 80s with still somewhat low humidity. The true heat and humidity will be arriving on Sunday night through much of next week.
  • Sunday night will see increasing humidity, and Labor Day through most of next week could have temperatures around 90 degrees once again, with haze and humidity as well. There will unfortunately be too much large-scale ridging to support any widespread rainfall chances, which means that the drought will continue to get worse. A true autumn-like blast of air may not arrive until the middle of the month.