Short Term Forecast Archives - Page 192 of 268 - New York Metro Weather

Pleasant start, but heavy rain likely Friday Night

April 25, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

It is not often, this time of year, that a relatively progressive passing disturbance will force the development of a low pressure system around 995mb off the Northeast US Coast. Exactly that will occur late Friday Night into early Saturday, as a mid and upper level disturbance passing through the Northeast US with some vigor moves toward New England. Forecast models indicate a high likelihood of increasing moisture as well as strengthening lift for precipitation by Friday Night — even some weak instability which could force thunderstorms — along an axis which will shift from west to east. This raises confidence in a period of heavy rain Friday Night into Saturday morning, as the low pressure system passes nearby and eventually into the Gulf of Maine.

Not all will be lost, however. Much of Friday will turn out pleasant. This morning, visible satellite imagery showed only some filtered high clouds moving into the area. High temperatures on most forecast models are expected to reach into the lower 60’s. Most notably, however, the winds which were blustery over the past few days have settled down. As a result, the 60 degree temperatures will feel much more comfortable in the warm sun as opposed to the brisk and blustery winds. Rain is forecast to move into the area after the PM Rush, and will be out of the area by Saturday’s sunrise.

Simulated radar for tonight shows an area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.

Pleasant, but fire danger through Friday

April 24, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Calm weather has settled into the area during the middle part of this week in the wake of a cold front, but gusty winds have ramped up over the last 12 to 24 hours with a tightening pressure gradient over the area. Blustery northwest winds led in a surface high pressure on Wednesday Night, as a low pressure system deepened well off to our north and east. The northwest winds and very low humidity are leading to concern for brush fire spread throughout the area. Subsequently, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for much of the area — save for Long Island, where higher humidity values are present near the coasts.

A Red Flag Warning is issued by the National Weather Service when high winds and low humidity are expected to make conditions favorable for dangerous and rapid spread of brush fires if ignition occurs. Despite the concern for fire spread, pleasant weather will continue — albeit a bit cool of this time of year. Highs in the lower 60’s will be common on Thursday and Friday before a disturbance approaches with a period of rain expected Friday Night.

Very low dew points and gusty winds could cause rapid fire spread today.

Typical spring week in store

April 21, 2014/1 Comment/by Doug Simonian

After a chilly wakeup this morning, temperatures should for the most part rebound nicely across of the area, as a high pressure system remains in-place. It will keep our skies sunny throughout the day, with temperatures generally in the mid 60s. However, coastal regions will experience yet another slightly chillier day, as easterly winds off the cold ocean will prevent temperatures from exceeding 60 degrees.

Last night’s 00z NAM model run shows temperatures well into the 60s for this afternoon in inland locations, but hovering in the 50s along the coast (weather.cod.edu).

The gradually departing high pressure system, and the low pressure system offshore are combining to generate easterly winds for this afternoon, as shown above. The pressure systems are relatively weak and are departing, which means the winds will be light — this will allow the cold, marine influence to not penetrate as far inland as they did on Easter Sunday. The lighter winds will allow temperatures to be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday along the coast (upper 50s to around 60 as opposed to low to mid 50s), yet up to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday in areas west of the city, where temperatures in the mid 60s to upper 60s will be common. If those winds lighten up even more, we would not be at all surprised if some spots touched 70 degrees, since 850mb temperatures are a few degrees above freezing.

As that high pressure system continues to move eastward, it will give way to a low pressure system that will pass to our north on Tuesday. This will increase our high clouds a bit for Monday night, which will keep temperatures a bit warmer than they have been the past several nights.

Although most of the storm’s associated precipitation will stay to our north, it will be dragging a cold front to its south, and potentially give us some showers or even a rumble of thunder sometime late Tuesday afternoon, through Tuesday night. Read more

Onshore flow, cooler through Friday

April 18, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Cooler than normal weather has been settled into the region for the past few days, after snow and ice on Wednesday morning made for a dramatic entrance. An onshore flow, rooted by east/southeasterly winds off of cooler ocean waters, will continue on Friday bringing temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s throughout the area and the presence of some clouds. Farther inland, over Pennsylvania and much of the Ohio Valley, a warmup is underway as the ocean effects are much more muted. This warmup will head our way by later this weekend into the early next week, but before the cooler/unsettled weather puts up a fight.

To our south this weekend, an upper level low with a tremendous amount of moisture will shift from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast States. Several inches of rain are expected along the Southeast Coast as the low pressure system shifts east. Luckily for our area, the incredible moisture return will remain south of our area and the storm system will skirt out to sea — leaving us without any significant rainfall amounts. But temperatures will remain generally in the 50’s and possibly approach the 60’s as the system begins to pull away.

Onshore flow keeping temperatures cooler than normal this weekend.

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