Cold air, snow showers to close out the week

This holiday week has generally been characterized by the return of colder air (after quite a warm start from the tail end of the weekend) and chances for light snow. Much of the same will continue on Thursday, as temperatures in the 20’s to near 30 will be common during the afternoon and a weak disturbance passing through aloft will spark the development of snow showers throughout the area. The weak low pressure system forming offshore and the relative lack of moisture means that precipitation will be spotty at best — but nevertheless, some flakes should fly especially across New Jersey and much of the interior. Accumulations are expected to be extremely light.

Another cold night is expected from late Thursday into Friday, as the aforementioned developing low pressure system pulls down one more reinforcing shot of cold air. Low temperatures in the teens and 20’s should be rather common by early Friday morning. Despite the light snow over the past several days, the weather pattern has been generally quiet. But beginning with a storm system late this weekend, the activity looks to kick up once again as we make our way into January.

Northeast US surface analysis on December 26, 2013 showing a weak coastal low forming offshore.

Northeast US surface analysis on December 26, 2013 showing a weak coastal low forming offshore.

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Rain, fog continuing through Monday evening

Periods of rain, with continued spotty areas of dense fog, are expected to persist throughout the day on Monday. The culprit? A low pressure system riding northward up the coast along a frontal boundary. With plenty of moisture available, and warmer than normal air sitting along the coast and throughout much of the Mid Atlantic, widespread rain has developed essentially from the Southeast states into the Northeast US this morning. The rain will continue through much of Monday afternoon, with the areas of fog likely not lifting until later today.

Regional radar imagery this morning showed the bands of moderate to heavy rain continuing to stream up the East Coast. With time, however, the frontal boundary will begin to sag eastward and the heavier rain will follow suit. Cooler air is expected to move into the region by later tonight into Tuesday — as the 70 degree weather from Sunday will quickly become a distant memory. By Christmas day, we will be tracking the potential for bands of snow. More details after the break..

Regional radar imagery from Monday morning, showing areas of moderate to heavy rain moving up the East Coast.

Regional radar imagery from Monday morning, showing areas of moderate to heavy rain moving up the East Coast.

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Warmup continues, peaks Sunday

Forecast models continue to come into better agreement on the extent of the warmth reaching our area on Sunday, and it seems to be fairly anomalous and will certainly feel dramatically different from what we have experienced over the past several days and weeks. High temperatures are forecast to surge into the 60’s throughout much of the area by late this weekend, as a major storm system drives northward through the Central United States and into the Great Lakes. A warm front will push north of the area during the weekend (providing unsettled weather) but the main story will come after its passage, as southerly winds will bring in very warm air.

The trend towards warmth begins today, as high temperatures will push into the lower 40’s in many locations. For some, especially over the interior, it is the first day above freezing in over a week. But, moreso, Thursday will serve as the first sign of airmass modification, which has not been commonplace in our area recently as arctic intrusions have been relentless. Despite the cold air remaining just to our north over Canada (just because we’re warming up, doesn’t mean it’s depleted) the extent of warm air by this weekend will become quite impressive.

NAM model showing a storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a warm front over New England and very warm air over our area (850mb temperatures 15+ C).

NAM model showing a storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a warm front over New England and very warm air over our area (850mb temperatures 15+ C).

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Wintry pattern set to break as big warmup awaits

It has been a wintry scene throughout the area over the past few weeks. In fact, many areas have exceeded snowfall averages for the first half or winter or more — and calendar winter hasn’t even technically begun yet! Snow fell on four separate occasions throughout the area, with everyone getting a taste of winter. Snow events blanketed Central and Southern New Jersey first, then favored the interior areas, and a clipper as recently as Tuesday brought snow to everyone (albeit light). But the cold and wintry pattern will take a hiatus over the next several days, as a changing pattern brings a big trough into the West and Central United States and allows the Southeast Ridge to flex its muscles.

Forecast models are in good agreement on a warming trend in temperatures each day this week, as the snowcover which currently exists throughout the region will take more of a hit with each passing day and each day of increasing high temperatures. The grand finale will come this weekend, when a surface low is forecast to drive well northwest of the region — and bring strong southerly winds to the area on the south side of a developing warm front. Although some showers, clouds and fog are also likely — these things come with the territory of warmer air this time of year — temperatures are likely to warm into the 60’s on Sunday. There may be potential for record warmth in some areas.

European model showing maximum temperatures on Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60's throughout the region.

European model showing maximum temperatures on Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60’s throughout the region.

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