Blocking sends disturbance south from Greenland

High latitude blocking, which we discussed earlier this week as an important predictor in summer temperature patterns around our area, is at it again. A large and anomalous blocking ridge, building north from Canada towards the higher latitudes into Newfoundland and Southeastern Greenland, is forcing a disturbance and upper level low to shift southward. The disturbance will track southward today — and can be seen on water vapor and visible satellite imagery early this afternoon. The feature won’t directly impact our area, nor will it cause any widespread unsettled weather on the east coast, but it could reinforce east/southeasterly winds as it passes later this week.

The track of the disturbance is the most unusual. To see an upper level low or disturbance track southward from Greenland all the way to a point just a few hundred miles off of the US East Coast is exceedingly rare. However, one glance at the blocking pattern aloft tells you the story — the disturbance had nowhere else to go, being forced into a small window between the trough over the Atlantic and the blocking ridge to the west over Canada. (Click read more for more imagery).

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Despite deary start, sun returns by midweek

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Dreary conditions, which took control of the areas weather on Monday into early Tuesday, will give way to the return to sun and seasonable temperatures by later on Tuesday. After a cloudy and potentially drizzly start to the day, high pressure to the north and east will begin to strengthen and nudge towards the area as an atmospheric disturbance aloft weakens. As this occurs, clearing is expected to push into the area from the east. Areas that see the sun on Tuesday will be able to warm up into the 60’s despite a light east/southeasterly wind.

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Clouds, showers to begin the new week

Plenty of sun, and warm temperatures, dominated the areas weather late last week into this past weekend. But late Sunday, mid and high clouds took over owing to an approaching disturbance to the west. This disturbance is over the area today — nestled between a tight mid level atmospheric flow and bringing clouds and showers with it. The unsettled weather will also bring cooler temperatures — topping out in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. The air will feel cooler and damp, however, with winds off the cooler ocean waters.

The showery and cloudy conditions are expected to persist through the early week, but will become less numerous on Tuesday and taper off completely by Wednesday. By mid week, the sun should make a return. Winds will remain out of the east, so the air will still have a bit of a chill to it, but the sun and temperatures in the 60’s will be pleasant compared to the damp and dreary conditions that the week began with.

Today: Cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southeast winds around 15 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Southeast winds around 15 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southeast winds around 15 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60’s. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour.

Pleasant weather through the weekend

For once, we have actually had sustained spring-like weather, as opposed to jumping rapidly from winter to summer, like we have in past years. This trend should continue today and through the weekend, as the entire area will experience sunny skies and temperatures into the 60s, and maybe hitting 70 in warmer inland locations this weekend. There is no threat of precipitation for the next several days.

The 1028mb high pressure system to our southwest will initially provide northerly winds for the morning hours, as clockwise flow around the high in the Ohio Valley yields northerly winds. However, once the high pressure moves eastward, the same clockwise flow around that high will instead yield westerly winds as we approach the afternoon hours. This will allow for a dry, downsloping flow, keeping skies clear, as downsloping yields sinking motion and thus no lift for clouds. The westerly winds will also help to keep the seabreeze to a minimum, so coastal locations will also get into the 60s and stay there for the whole afternoon. This bodes well for people who enjoy going to the beach during the sunset.

As we head into Saturday, that high pressure will continue to move eastward, so that the clockwise flow around it will actually help to turn the winds towards the southwest as the afternoon progresses. This will help warm many areas from NYC and westward to readings near 70. Coastal regions will also have a nice initial burst of warmth, but later in the afternoon once the southwest flow becomes more prevalent, the seabreeze and onshore flow will be allowed to have a bit more of an influence, thus cooling temperatures on Long Island in the late afternoon hours. Fortunately, the initial warmth should prevent the cooling temperatures from meeting their dewpoint, thus eliminating the fog threat that ruined the afternoon for coastal sections on Wednesday.

Sunday should expect much of the same conditions as we had on Saturday, except for the fact that the winds might be more due southerly, perhaps increasing cloudiness and knocking down temperatures into the upper 50s for coastal regions in the afternoon hours with the marine layer threat. Other than this possibility for coastal sections, all locations west of NYC should hit the 70 degree mark and perhaps exceed it.

Today: Sunny with a high near 65. Light northerly winds will shift to the west between 5-10mph.

Tonight: Clear skies with a low around 45 and light west-northwest winds between 5-10mph.

Saturday: Sunny with a high near 71. Light west and northwest winds will shift to the southwest during the afternoon.

Sunday: Partly sunny with a high near 68 and light southerly winds.