John Homenuk

Matthew’s shifting track spares Northeast, targets Florida

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Hurricane Matthew is tracking northwest of Cuba today, strengthening and re-organizing after land interaction as it moves into the Bahamas. Extremely warm water and favorable to near-ideal upper level atmospheric conditions will support re-strengthening of the storm on its trek northwestward over the next few days. This is troubling for many reasons, but none more than the fact that while the storm strengthens, a large ridge will build to its east over the Western Atlantic. This will essentially block any eastward component to Matthews movement, instead insuring west-northwestward movement toward the Bahamas and Florida late this week.

Forecast models, in fact, have come into better agreement on the exact track of Matthew over the next 48-60 hours or so. As the storm strengthens, with favorable sea surface temperature and depth as well as favorable mid and upper level jet positioning for ventilation, it will move toward the Southeast Florida coast. The mid level ridge to the east of Matthew will guide the storm on a northwest heading, eventually with a more northward turn, near the coast of Florida.

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Miguel Pierre

Friday Overview: Unsettled Weather Continues…Watching Hurricane Matthew

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A large cut-off low over the Ohio Valley continues to cause some unsettled, cooler weather over the region. So far high pressure positioned to the northeast, has keep heavier rainfall over southwest of NYC metro. But with a strengthening low-level easterly jet, more band rains are likely to move in from the ocean later today. Some of this rain, may be heavy at times. Which could lead to some ponding of water on area roadways and some flooding in poor-drainage and low-lying areas.

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Miguel Pierre

Monday Evening Roundup: Cool AM Lows…Showers Likely Late Tonight

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This morning started off chilly in many areas just outside of NYC with temperatures getting into 40s and lower 50s in many suburbs. While no record lows were set, some places down into the middle to upper 30s, which is around 10 degrees or so below normal for this time of year.  These are some morning low temperatures at these select sites around the region:

Westhampton, NY: 35

Port Jervis, NY: 35

Montgomery, NY: 37

Morristown, NJ: 37

Danbury, CT: 35

Temperatures rose back into the upper 60s to lower 70s with more sunshine this afternoon. Now clouds are on the increase this evening, as a frontal system begins approaching the region. Some showers are likely over much of the region late tonight into tomorrow morning with the cold front passing through the region. Some heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms are possible with abundant moisture and some elevated instability. Additionally, a potent upper-level jet streak will pass to our north, placing us in the right-entrance region, which will further serve to enhance precipitation. This could lead to some ponding of water on area roadways. However, showers and any thunderstorms will be moving quickly over the area, so heavy rainfall totals over 1.00″ and localized flash flooding are unlikely.

This afternoon's GFS valid for Tuesday morning shows showers and embedded heavy downpours. A strong jet streak passing by helps to enhance the lift in our atmosphere.

This afternoon’s GFS valid for Tuesday morning shows showers and embedded heavy downpours. A strong jet streak passing by helps to enhance the lift in our atmosphere.

Right now it looks like the early-morning commute will be wet, but the mid-morning should primarily be dry, except over far eastern areas. Skies should clear tomorrow afternoon as the cold front passes through the region. Sunshine breaking out later in the day  should help temperatures rise back into the lower 70s. Dry weather will continue into Tuesday night. Then more unsettled weather, with some rainfall, is possible with the cut-off low lingering over the region. But it won’t necessarily be complete washout later this week, though heavy rain is possible at times. Rainfall is needed as much of the region is in a moderate or severe drought.  More forecast and technical details were discussed in our weekly outlook article and main dashboard for clients and premium members this morning.

For more forecast details on the rains later in the week, including weekly and long-range outlooks and video discussion, sign up to become a Premium member tonight!

 

 

Miguel Pierre

Premium Weekly Outlook: A cut-off low brings unsettled weather and rainfall

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So far this month, while there have been cool shots, we’ve seen warmer than normal temperatures dominate for a longer period. It has also been quite dry. But more seasonable temperatures and unsettled weather is looking likely for this weekly period overall. So much-needed rainfall may also be on the way, especially for Long Island which is currently under a severe drought.

Today has gotten of to a chilly start with temperatures in the 40s over most of the region. Some interior locations and the Pine Barrens dropped down into the middle to upper 30s with some pockets of frost. Sunshine will dominate much of the day and it will be pleasant Autumn afternoon overall. But some clouds will begin increasing later this afternoon, as a frontal boundary associated with a closed upper-level over Great Lakes begins approaching the region. Temperatures will still reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the region.

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