Francesco Paparatto

Technical Discussion: Snowstorm Early Next Week

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The winter that never ends continues into March with a large snowstorm taking aim on our area once again. After taking a closer look at data this afternoon and getting a better understanding of how this storm will develop, confidence is increasing in the fact that another plowable snowstorm will impact the northeast Sunday into Tuesday morning (March 2nd-4th). The worst of the storm is expected to occur throughout the day on Monday.

One of the driving mechanisms bringing back the arctic air and the stormy weather is the MJO. This phenomena monitors convective storms that form around the world and is divided into eight phases. Phases 8-1-2 in the month of March, which is the current and foreseeable state of the MJO, bring colder than normal and stormy weather to the eastern U.S. This is one of the reasons why the drought-stricken state of California is finally able to see rain over the next few weeks.
The MJO is not the only signal jump starting our winter pattern. The EPO, as has been the case most of this winter, is back in a negative state and trending even further negative (near -4 value) by this weekend. This means blocking in the eastern Pacific, including Alaska and western Canada has formed. Additionally, the AO is also negative which does not surprise me given the extreme negative state of the EPO and the arctic air mass we are currently dealing with and will still have to deal with for the next 10 days.
John Homenuk

Major coastal storm to impact the area Thursday

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Forecast models have converged on the eventual development and track of a significant coastal storm, which will form on Wednesday and impact the area from later Wednesday through Thursday. Although there is still some variance among model solutions regarding the exact details of the system, a decreasing envelope of potential solutions has increased confidence in the eventual impacts in our area. A strong storm system will develop off the Carolina coast on Wednesday as a result of a powerful mid and upper level trough and shortwave. Phasing disturbances aloft will eventually reach the East Coast and help to develop a strong low pressure system, which will push north and eventually northeastward from the Mid Atlantic coast to the shores of New England.

As this occurs, significant precipitation will surge northward from the Mid Atlantic into New England. Falling as snow initially, precipitation type will become a tough forecast during the height of the storm. Forecast models indicate some mid level and surface warming after an initial burst of heavy snow, which could lead to a changeover to sleet and rain along the area coasts and Long Island. However, as the surface low strengthens and the upper level low nears, temperatures are expected to drop again and precipitation will likely change back over to snow. Accordingly, confidence is rising in a major winter storm throughout the area — with the potentially highest snowfall totals from parts of interior Central New Jersey into Northern NJ and New York City and interior Connecticut.

NAM model showing a significant coastal storm impacting the area on Thursday with heavy snow in much of NJ, NY and CT.

NAM model showing a significant coastal storm impacting the area on Thursday with heavy snow in much of NJ, NY and CT.

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John Homenuk

Winter Storm Warnings in effect through Wednesday

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The second winter storm in 48 hours time will impact the area beginning Tuesday Night and continuing into Wednesday. Despite occurring less than two days after a significant snowstorm which blanketed the area with 8-10″ of snow from Sunday into Monday, this system will feature an entirely different set of threats — and will also feature a completely different evolution. A low pressure system is forecast to drive from Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley and Western Pennsylvania, while a secondary surface low redevelops off the coast of New Jersey. The result will be heavy precipitation overspreading the area Tuesday Night, and mid level warm air advection rapidly surging northward.

At the surface, cold air looks to be stubborn — especially away from the coast. The result will be a storm featuring snow which will quickly transition to sleet, freezing rain and rain throughout the area. Coastal locations and areas farther south will be warmer initially and likely will changeover to plain rain after just light accumulations. But farther north and across interior New Jersey, Southeast NY and parts of CT — significant low level cold will be slower to scour out. And the result will be the potential for several inches of snow followed by icing, which could create a high impact storm system with travel hazards and power outages into Wednesday. The National Weather Service issued Winter Storm Warnings in advance of the system, which are in effect for Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Snow (left) and Ice (right) forecasts from Tuesday Night into Wednesday from our meteorologists.

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John Homenuk

Video: Explaining the late-week snow potential

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Much has been said over the past several days regarding the potential for a winter weather event and snow accumulation late this week. And in reality, the potential is quite high. Forecast models, however, have been waffling with the potential for a bigger system and one that remains disorganized and is more likely to produce a moderate event. As forecasters, this keeps our confidence in the event rather low. The specific details and intricate interactions between atmospheric disturbances will ultimately determine how the storm forms, where it tracks, and how strong it is. But at this range, forecast guidance will struggle mightily to pin down the details.

To help quiet the noise a bit, we’ve provided a video discussion which breaks down the setup. In this video you’ll find our concerns, thoughts and ideas as we continue to analyze and interpret the data. Despite the uncertainty, we should begin to gain confidence in the eventual outcome of the system over the next 12-24 hours. You can watch the free video by clicking below. If you are on mobile, copy the video link into your browser.