Forecast Dashboard – Page 15 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Weekend Outlook: You wanted better weather, you got it

June 7, 2019/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

After what seems like weeks of near-daily rainfall, the pattern has finally decided to give us a break. High pressure nosing down from New England is likely to keep the weather calm over the next few days, leading to a very pleasant weekend. Temperatures are likely to average near or slightly above normal throughout the […]

Showers likely tonight, pleasant weather lasts through the weekend!

June 5, 2019/0 Comments/by Steven Copertino

Good afternoon! The cooler/dry airmass that has been present over the Northeast is now a thing of the past! Warmer/more humid conditions are now in place, along with the threat of some showers this evening. High pressure will gradually build into the Northeast this weekend, making for an overall great weekend.

Weekend Outlook: Calmer weather settles in, isolated storms still possible

May 31, 2019/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

After three days of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances, the weather pattern has finally settled down today. This comes as welcome news to almost everyone – including meteorologists! – who are in desperate need of a break and some sunshine. Friday will be a beautiful day, really, with high temperatures in the upper 70’s […]