Posts

John Homenuk

Clearing out late Sunday, cooler to start the week

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Showers, clouds, and dreary conditions were widespread on Sunday morning as a cold front and associated moisture slowly made its way through the forecast area. The moisture and atmospheric forcing for precipitation will shift east of the area by early this afternoon, and as it does so, drier air will begin to filter into the area. This will help skies clear out during the afternoon hours. Mid level atmospheric temperatures will also still remain “warm”, with the coldest air lagging behind the cold fronts precipitation from this morning. So high temperatures on Sunday afternoon may actually be quite pleasant.

Colder air will begin to filter in to the area by Sunday Night into Monday morning, as mid and upper level atmospheric temperatures drop as well. With northerly winds taking over on Monday, high temperatures will struggle into the middle 50’s during the afternoon hours. It will feel quite brisk compared to the past few days, even with abundant sunshine expected. While the cooler temperatures are expected to continue through the early part of the work week, some moderation in temperatures is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday.

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John Homenuk

PM Roundup: Changeable weather ahead of cold front

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While forecast models initially suggested clouds and showers for much of the second half of this weekend, sensible weather conditions turned out to be quite pleasant. Warm ocean waters can partially be thanked for that, as even east winds weren’t able to advect in a cold and damp marine layer. Most notably, showers and thunderstorms stayed away from our area for the most part — leading to pleasant conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. An elongated cold front will finally make its approach to the area late Monday into Tuesday, with cooler and less humid air arriving behind it. In the meantime, changeable weather is expected ahead of it on Monday. Highs will again be in the 80’s, and after some early clouds, the sun will return — with scattered showers and storms by afternoon and evening. Some highlights of the weather over the next few days are included below:

  • The weather will remain warm, with dew points back into the 60’s, on Sunday evening. Overnight, some clouds and showers may push inland from the ocean waters as surface winds turn easterly.
  • Monday will feature partly cloudy skies after some early clouds. Temperatures and dew points will again be high. A few scattered showers and storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.
  • A cold front approaches Monday Night into Tuesday. Models are inconsistent with its timing — some take it through the area early Tuesday, others delay it until Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, cooler air will be on the way by Tuesday Night into Wednesday with lower humidity values as well.
John Homenuk

Warmup with showers, storms on Friday

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Despite a large mid level ridge, a backdoor cold front made any semblance of warmth exceptionally fleeting over the past few days. Thursday will be no exception, as east and northeasterly winds keep low clouds socked in with showers and drizzle dominating the forecast. Meanwhile, across the Central United States, a powerful cold front has begun its trek east from the Plains and will eventually end up in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday and early Friday. Severe weather will be possible throughout the Central United States today.

For our area, this signals two things: The end of any potential above average regime, and the likelihood of an increased southerly flow right ahead of the front. The latter of the two will be most important, as east/northeasterly winds will swing around to southerly on Friday. This will help to scour out the backdoor cold front and allow warmer air to surge northward from the Mid Atlantic States into parts of Southern New England. Temperatures will rebound, into the 60’s and potentially 70’s in much of New Jersey.

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John Homenuk

Backdoor cold front season is here, what’s the deal?

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Each spring we emerge from a long cold winter with aspirations of 70 degree temperatures, a cool breeze and plenty of sun.  It rarely works out that way. Whether it be an upper level low, a stalled cold front, or a backdoor frontal boundary there are plenty of meteorological events that often are to blame for a colder and damp spring in this area. The fact of the matter is, our location during a transition season (fall, spring) is a difficult place to be. The changing and morphing wavelengths of the mid and upper level ridges and troughs mean the potential for cutoff lows, and the colder ocean waters this time of year especially will wreak havoc on any warmup.

This week, we will once again revisit the science behind a backdoor cold front. A significant low pressures system is forecast to develop through the Central United States during the middle part of this week, with the severe weather possible from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. Meteorology tells us that a warm front should be surging north from the Mid Atlantic states into New England as this low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes, with southerly winds ramping up warm air south of the  front. But where is the warm front, and why hasn’t it made progress north? The answer lies in the setup both aloft and at the surface, and it leads to the development of a backdoor front which will push the warm air back to our south during the middle part of the week.

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