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John Homenuk

Michael strengthening, damp and dreary weather continues

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Monday has arrived without much fanfare – in fact, quite the opposite of fanfare. It has been dark, damp and dreary throughout the Northeast states and those conditions are largely expected to continue. You can thank low clouds and moisture trapped near the surface for that. We don’t expect the clouds to move much today, and drizzly conditions may very well continue through the evening hours as well.

The synoptic weather pattern doesn’t change all that much on Tuesday. Much of the Northeast will start the day with foggy conditions and drizzle, with temperatures still hovering in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. It won’t be until the afternoon that higher pressures will begin to aid in some clearing, with some breaks of sun. Improving conditions are finally expected by Wednesday.

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Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Cool and Damp Friday, Coastal Cut-Off Next Week?

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Good afternoon and Happy Friday!

Today has been another unsettled and damp day as rather thick cloud cover and some associated showers have worked their way through the region late last night and into the morning. This was due largely in part from a retreating back door cold front, or a cold front that sinks from northeast to southeast due to more dense air being able to overcome the more shallow and weak warm layer to the south. Offshore winds and thick cloud cover should remain over the remainder of the afternoon, and there does exist the potential for some patchy areas of drizzle or even a shower or two. Any steadier showers will likely be limited to areas along the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island, as the marine influence will be greatest along those areas.

With this aforementioned cloud cover and the back door cold front established well to our south and west, temperatures in North and Central New Jersey, as well as points to the north will struggle to reach out of the mid 50’s this afternoon. Further south into southern portions of New Jersey as well as southeast Pennsylvania, we may see temperatures reach into the low to middle 60’s, but this is highly dependent on whether or not if the warm sector in central Pennsylvania is able to advance during the late afternoon hours.

Some more steady showers and possibly even a thunderstorm or two may be possible for portions of southeast Pennsylvania as well as southern New Jersey later into this evening, but as of right now, it is looking like any shower /thunderstorm development will be isolated in nature. Weak instability, moderate wind shear, and some clearing skies over central Pennsylvania has lead to an area where we may see these potential showers and storms develop and potentially progress east during the afternoon hours. This area will be monitored for any potential development, so make sure to check in here for the latest and on our twitter page @nymetrowx for up to the minute updates! Due to the risk of some weak/isolated severe thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has place portions of our area in a Marginal Risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. Heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with any stronger storms, so make sure to be aware of any approaching storms later on.

Latest surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery across the Northeast showing the very stark temperature gradient in place this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Latest surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery across the Northeast showing the very stark temperature gradient in place this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

As we move on through the day and into the evening, a cold front will begin to push through the region later this evening. However, there is a chance that some moisture will be trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere later on tonight, which could cause some low clouds and areas of patchy fog to remain late tonight and early tomorrow morning, especially closer to coast. Cloud cover will significantly dampen any chance of radiational cooling tonight, which should  keep temperatures from dropping out of upper 40s to lower 50s overnight over much of the region. Some interior valleys could be a little cooler in the lower to middle 40s, which is a good 8-14 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Saturday Into Sunday 

As the cold front continues to push through the southern Mid Atlantic region tomorrow morning, broken clouds and even some overcast will be possible as some residual moisture continues to stick around in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. The short-term models disagree on whether or not the cloudiness will burn off or not through the afternoon hours, but we do expect some peeks of sunshine tomorrow with a relatively cool air mass settling in tomorrow. With some limited cloud cover, light winds, and cooler mid level temperatures expected tomorrow, temperatures should be able to only rise into the low to middle 50’s across most of the New York metro area, with the possibility of interior locations possible seeing highs limited to the upper 50’s due to cool northwesterly winds from Canada. These winds will also usher in some more dry air into the mix, so expect any residual clouds to gradually fade iater into the day.

Sunday will be the beginning of another unstable period as a low pressure system in the mid levels of the atmosphere “cuts off” from the main flow and begins to meander towards the southeast coast of the United States. This low pressure will have a very nice feed of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, so it’s overall precipitation field should be quite large in nature, as well as have the potential to drop a moderate to heavy amount of rain wherever it does track. This afternoons guidance really has not converged on any particular solutions, with some models bringing the low from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, to just offshore of the southern coast of Long Island, while other models have the system meandering off the Mid Atlantic coast with little, if any direct impacts through Sunday and Monday.

As of right now, we expect that this system will not be able to gain enough latitude once it reaches the southeast coast to impact our area with any significant rains or winds at this time. High pressure centered in Canada will likely keep this system offshore throughout this period, but this system will need to be monitored, as a small deviation in overall setup could chance the forecast quite a bit.

12z GFS model showing the large cutoff low pressure system stalling out and remaining off of the Mid-Atlantic coast throughout the weekend and into early next week.

Extended Range  

Stronger ridging should begin to develop over our area on Monday and into Tuesday, and this will begin to force the remnants of the cutoff low to the south and east early next week. This should allow any significant impacts like heavy rain and winds to remain well-offshore before the system gradually weakens and heads out to sea. More unsettled weather will likely take shape once again as a very active Pacific jet stream begins to set up off of the west coast of the United States.

This very active jet stream will have the potential to place a deep trough in the central portions of the country, which would in turn bring a large ridge of high pressure into the southeastern region of the country. This combination would be capable of bringing temperatures well-above normal next week for the Northeast, along with the risk for multiple rounds of severe storms in the Plains states and on east, possibly beginning on Wednesday. Regardless of the exact details, it does look like we are possibly heading into a very active and warm pattern once again, so make sure to stay tuned over the next few days for more updates!

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Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

FREE Public Analysis: Damp and Dreary Conditions Gives Way to Above-Normal Temps

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Good Afternoon and Happy Friday!

The low pressure that moved just west of our area yesterday has slowly continued on towards the north and east this afternoon, bringing yet another gloomy and day. This low will gradually lift out into eastern Canada by Saturday, but stout northwesterly winds will keep temperatures somewhat below-normal throughout the day. By Sunday, some relief from this cool and gloomy weather should arrive as an area of high pressure builds in from the southwest. As this high locks itself offshore during the beginning of next week, we may see temperatures well-above average for this time of year. The question is, does this warm period last, or is it just a passing tease?

This Afternoon and Evening 

As mentioned, the very energetic area of low pressure that produced heavy rainfall, intense lightning, and even some damaging wind gusts for portions of the New York metro area has lifted into Canada this afternoon, leaving behind much cooler temperatures in its wake. Temperatures have struggled to get out of the mid-upper 40’s this afternoon, which is a good four to six degrees (c) for this time of year. When coupled with wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range, this makes temperatures feel even worse, dropping down into the upper 30’s and low 40’s. These windy conditions are due to the strong area of low pressure exiting to the north east of our area, producing a tight pressure gradient over the region as it presses against a high pressure system currently located over the Mississippi Valley.

Showers have been relatively persistent this afternoon across the area, providing some light rain or drizzle to really put the icing on the miserable conditions of this afternoon. As the last piece of energy associated with Thursday storm swings through, these showers and a weak cold front may bring some more showers towards sunset, with the possibility of a mix of snow and rain in the more inland/elevated locations. These rain or mix showers are expected to be very light in nature and no significant precipitation is expected to fall from these showers as support for their development gradually wanes this afternoon.

Mostly cloudy conditions should persist throughout the rest of the afternoon as the weak front and associated upper level energy wring out the last bit of moisture available in the atmosphere. Once we head into this evening, the remaining showers should die off and skies should gradually clear, leaving temperatures rather cold for this time of year. Most locations should see lows this evening range from the mid 30’s, to low 40’s closer to the coast.

Current surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery showing relatively cold and damp conditions this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Current surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery showing relatively cold and damp conditions this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Saturday and Sunday

As we work our way into Saturday morning, temperatures should be relatively cool to start off the day with 30’s and low 40’s being commonplace across the area. As high pressure begins to establish itself on Saturday afternoon, winds from the northwest will keep things dry, but also relatively cool. Temperatures should be in the low to upper 50’s across the area under mostly sunny skies, however the pressure gradient that was mentioned earlier will still be lingering over the region, so winds of 15-20 mph may make things feel a bit more chilly than they actually are. Overall, Saturday should be an improvement from the past few days, but will ultimately be a few degrees below normal in the end. Saturday evening should feature clear skies with temperatures in the mid 40’s, with upper 30’s possible to the north and west of New York City.

As the high pressure system begins to move to our south on Sunday morning, winds will begin to shift to the south/southwest with somewhat chilly conditions to start off with. As the morning progresses,  these southwesterly winds will usher in much warmer conditions by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures should have no problem reaching into the 60’s on Sunday afternoon with clear skies and light southerly winds. This will make Sunday the highlight of the weekend, but this is only the beginning of the above-normal temperature regime!

3km NAM showing temperatures reaching at or around 60 degrees areawide on Sunday afternoon (Valid 2pm)

3km NAM showing temperatures reaching at or around 60 degrees areawide on Sunday afternoon (Valid 2pm)

Extended Range (Monday-Friday)

With the area of high pressure centered off of the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, warmer temperatures will continue to build throughout the week with increasing, deep southwesterly flow at the surface. This will allow temperatures to reach all the way up into the mid 70’s and possibly even low 80’s for southern locations on Monday and Tuesday. If such temperatures are realized early on in the work week, these would easily be around 12-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, which would be a remarkable contrast to this week’s dreary deluges.

In addition to this period of much warmer weather, conditions should also be much less active for now, as the storm track across the country leads the low pressure track well off to our west.

Temperatures should remain a good 8-15 degrees above normal each day through Thursday afternoon, before a potential disturbance from Canada drops down and brings in a chance at some more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

After this period of more calm and dry conditions, the Pacific looks to become much more active once again, so we will have to watch for more stormy conditions on the horizon as multiple systems line up to impact the western US and possibly travel east.

12z GFS upper level winds at 300mb showing a very active potential pattern shaping up over the Pacific, similar to the one that recently provided the severe weather and heavy rains (Valid 8am Thursday)

12z GFS upper level winds at 300mb showing a very active potential pattern shaping up over the Pacific, similar to the one that recently provided the severe weather and heavy rains (Valid 8am Thursday)

With some impressive warmth and a potentially more active pattern returning in the long-range, make sure to stay tuned for updates!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Active Pattern Out West Yields Another Damp and Dreary Week

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Good afternoon!

After the brief warmup that some locations saw on Saturday afternoon, we’re back into the same cool and wet pattern that we have been stuck in for nearly a week now. For now, we expect this to continue for at least the rest of this week as a very active Pacific jet streak allows storm after storm to roll through the Central Plains, and then eastward to the Northeast. While the brunt of the weather will be felt out to our west with multiple severe episodes likely, our area should at the very least should see an abundance of rain. Even though this may seem like a pretty abysmal pattern to be stuck in, most of the Northeast does actually need the rain as most of our area and especially portions of Connecticut remain in a moderate to severe drought. So, the more we can chip away at these precipitation departures before the summer months, the better off we’ll be in the long-run.

Earlier this morning we saw multiple rounds of showers roll through with some locally heavy rainfall noted from some weather observation sites. The last batch of steadier showers moved through the NYC metro area at around 930 am, and has since left behind mostly cloudy and cool conditions. As of 3pm, temperatures were quite variable, with southern New York, portions of Connecticut, and far northern New Jersey stuck in the low to mid 40’s. To the south, the NYC metro area is currently near 50 degrees, with warmer temperatures of about 60 degrees common near central/south New Jersey.

A warm front has been lifting to the north through southern NJ this afternoon, which is why we are seeing another stark contrast with temperatures today. Just like this past weekend, this warm front will only be allowed to lift so far north before stalling out. This will cause temperatures to remain generally steady as thicker cloud cover to the north prevents any more significant warming. With moist southwesterly flow overspreading the region, mostly cloudy conditions are expected for the entire region, but some southern locations in NJ and PA may see some less-dense cloud cover, or even a few late peaks of sun.

Latest visible satellite, surface temperatures, and regional radar imagery (Valid 2:20pm)

Latest visible satellite, surface temperatures, and regional radar imagery of the Northeast (Valid 2:20pm)

As we head into the evening, clouds may begin to clear a bit more to partly cloudy conditions with time due to some very brief dry air. This dry air will be located just ahead of another disturbance that will move in during the overnight hours and work to once again enhance the mid to low-level moisture air in the atmosphere just enough so that we may have to worry about some showers. Patchy fog may develop later tonight into tomorrow morning with increasing moisture and very light winds. This fog seems like it will be localized in nature, but motorists may need to exercise caution when proceeding into the morning commute tomorrow.

With the aforementioned warm front stalled to the south of NYC tomorrow morning, another cool and dreary start to the day is expected with another tight temperature gradient likely setting up. Where this gradient sets up will be dependant on where the frontal boundary decides to rest. This will lead to another situation where temperatures to the north of the boundary will be in the 40’s to mid 50’s, and temperatures to the south of the front may rise into the 60’s and even low 70’s in some locations.

This will be a difficult feature to nail down, as yesterday’s models did a poor job with just how much the warm front would lift to the north for today. Regardless, as we go throughout the day tomorrow, an area of low pressure will develop along the stalled frontal system and provide a good chance of some showers, and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder across the area tomorrow afternoon. These showers should continue throughout the afternoon and into Tuesday night just ahead of a cold front. Temperatures should remain relatively mild, with lows in the mid-upper 40’s, to low 50’s for the southernmost locations.

This afternoons 3km NAM showing showers and possibly even a thunderstorm in the southern zones tomorrow evening as an area of low pressure moves through (Courtesy of WxCharts.eu)

This afternoons 3km NAM showing showers and possibly even a thunderstorm in the southern zones tomorrow evening as an area of low pressure moves through (Courtesy of WxCharts.eu)

Finally on Wednesday things seem to calm down for the moment as a cold front associated with the weak area of low pressure moves through the Northeast. This cold front will provide some fresh, cool air for the entire region, so expect highs mainly to be in the mid 50’s to around 60 degrees on Wednesday afternoon with clear skies also likely. As we move into Wednesday night, a large area of high pressure passing to our north in Canada will briefly reinforce this cold air, which will work to drop temperatures into the upper 20’s to mid 30’s across the region—with some frost possible for inland locations.

As the high pressure system up in Canada continues to move quickly to the east on Thursday, another sunny, but below normal day looks to be on tap. Northwesterly flow will limit temperatures to the upper 40’s and low 50’s, and these temperatures will certainly feel below-normal when coupled with some light, but gusty northwest winds.

12z NAM showing a much cooler air mass on Thursday morning with temperatures below freezing for some northern locations (Valid 8am Thursday)

12z NAM showing a much cooler air mass on Thursday morning with temperatures below freezing for some northern locations (Valid 8am Thursday)

Unfortunately, this calmer period seems to be short-lived as a cut-off mid level system works its way east by Friday evening and into Saturday morning. This system will be somewhat slow-moving in nature and will have a hefty moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico, which may allow for some heavy rainfall across much of the Northeast this weekend. We may have to monitor this system for some potential flooding issues, as warm air and heavy rainfall will quickly erode any residual snowpack in northern New England.

With the extremely active Pacific jet lining up disturbances all the way back to Japan, it seems likely that we should remain in this stormy pattern for at least the next week to ten days, so make sure to stay tuned for the latest updates on any upcoming systems!

12z GFS showing multiple disturbances lined up all the way back to Japan courtesy of a very active upper level jet

12z GFS showing multiple disturbances lined up all the way back to Japan courtesy of a very active upper level jet (Valid Saturday at 2am)

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great day!

Steve Copertino