Posts

Miguel Pierre

Winter returns this week, snow possible Tuesday

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It has been an active Sunday throughout the area, with heavy rain, winds, coastal flooding and thunderstorms. A cold front will push through the region this evening, ushering in much colder air both aloft and at the surface. Skies will turn mostly clear overnight, as high pressure builds into the area. Most notably, strong westerly winds will be the driving force in pushing the colder airmass into the area. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 20’s and 30’s by sunrise, with winds gusting as high as 40 miles per hour.

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Miguel Pierre

Rain and wind likely Sunday, winter arrives next week

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High pressure over Eastern Quebec will cause cold air damming over the region tonight, with cold air funneling toward our area. A mid level shortwave and weak warm front are on their way by Saturday morning, however, with the first light round of precipitation ahead of a significant storm system.  As this disturbance approaches our area, some very light snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected across the interior and higher elevations. Temperatures there will be hovering below or near freezing — causing the potential for slick roads.

A deepening storm tracking over the Eastern Great Lakes will send a stronger warm front — and then  a cold front — through the region late Saturday night and Sunday. Lifting will be aided by a strengthening southeasterly low-level jet and precipitable water values between 1.00 to 1.50″.  This will cause periods of rain starting late Saturday night, becoming heavy at times during Sunday morning and early afternoon.  An isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled with elevated instability.

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Miguel Pierre

Colder air is on the way, but how about the snow?

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Winter has finally arrived. Despite potentially record breaking warmth for one day this weekend (Sunday), and the return of rain this weekend as well, we will continue to transition into a colder pattern with an arctic frontal passage on Monday. The atmospheric global circulation pattern is trending much more favorably for winter weather lovers — with teleconnections favoring cold being dislodged into the Northern 1/3 of the United States. With high latitude blocking also in the forecast on all medium range models — the question now becomes: What about the snow?

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John Homenuk

(Premium) Heavy rain, gusty winds possible this weekend

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Forecast models have come into better agreement on the eventual evolution of a low pressure system, which will track from the Mississippi Valley into the Northeastern United States this weekend. Setting the stage for the surface low pressure development will be a mid level atmospheric disturbance, which will eject from the Southwestern United States into the Central United States during the latter half of this current work week. In our area, mid level heights will rise (and temperatures will moderate) ahead of its approach.

Eventually, by Saturday, moisture is expected to stream toward our area as a result of increased southerly winds and a developing low level jet. Initial concerns develop as forecast models show a stout low level cold air signal at the surface, but warming air aloft. This may cause the development of some light frozen precipitation initially in the suburbs or interior. The main hazardous weather threat will come later on Sunday, however, once a significant low pressure system develops into the Great Lakes. A strong low level jet and forcing is likely to bring the potential for heavy rain, as well as gusty winds.

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