Posts

Miguel Pierre

Despite strong signal, models differ on late week winter storm

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Forecast models are a complicated thing: Meteorologists know, when major storms are looming, that they can often provide major hints and clues into how the atmosphere is going to evolve. Unfortunately, many readers or the general public don’t fully understand that models should be used for guidance, and not as fact. Quite possibly, the misunderstanding stems from meteorologists inability to communicate that.

Global models over the past few days have been strongly signaling the potential for a major East Coast storm system later this week. More specifically, many of them have been signaling the potential for a significant winter storm in our area. However, closer inspection of these global models reveals several large differences — and reasons why confidence is very low in any specific storm evolution as we move forward.

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John Homenuk

Hype gaining speed with late week winter weather event

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We’ll be the first to tell you: You’re probably going to see and hear a lot about a potential winter storm over the coming days. In addition to that, you probably shouldn’t take everything you hear all that seriously.

Here’s the long and short of it: Forecast models, over the past two days, have come into agreement on the idea that a significant winter weather event will evolve in the Eastern United States sometime late this upcoming week into the upcoming weekend. A strong low pressure system is forecast to develop from the South-Central United States, through the Mississippi River Valley, and eventually re-develop off the East Coast.

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John Homenuk

Light accumulating snow possible today and tonight

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It appears this weekends coastal storm has a few more tricks up its sleeve. After forecast models indicated the storm had a chance of significantly impacting the area, the trend was decidedly seaward over the past few days. The past 24 hours, however, have seen a steady trend northwestward with the precipitation shield, enough to offer up impacts for our area later today and tonight.

While the center of low pressure will pass hundreds of miles to our south and east, light precipitation associated with the storm system – and the overhead trough – will spread northeastward from the Mid Atlantic into our area today. Thermal profiles will support snow, albeit light, after the atmosphere moistens up enough so that precipitation can reach the ground. Initially, radar may show precipitation, but dry air will win the battle and prevent steady snow.

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Miguel Pierre

Despite two disturbances, winter weather unlikely this weekend

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In our previous article, we discussed some of the features in the upcoming hemispheric pattern that could support a winter weather event. These features were particularly evident during the period from January 16th to 20th. As we have gotten closer to this time period, forecast models have come into much better agreement on exactly how these features will evolve.

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