Posts

John Homenuk

Brutal cold likely to start the work week

/by

Winter will mark its arrival with a bang on Monday and Tuesday mornings. The warm, humid days of December may very well seem like a distant memory as an arctic airmass seeps into the Northeast United States, first on Sunday and again Monday with the passage of an arctic front. Very cold mid and upper level atmospheric temperatures will dive southward into the region from Canada, as high pressure builds in overhead.

With the passage of an arctic cold front on Monday will come very cold air, blustery winds, and the potential for a few snow showers or squalls. While these snow showers aren’t expected to bring any notable accumulation, they may be just enough to reduce visibility at times on Monday.

Read more

John Homenuk

Warmth on borrowed time as January pattern change looms

/by

Old man winter may finally be waking up. After a December which, to this point, has featured historically warm temperatures and an overall lack of snow, a well anticipated pattern change now looks increasingly likely to play out during the middle part of January. In fact, forecast models suggest the pattern change is already underway, and the effects of it may be felt a bit earlier than anticipated when we released our Winter Forecast back in early November.

The atmosphere is already undergoing significant changes which will have a tremendous impact on the sensible weather in our area within about two weeks time. Most interesting of all? Those changes are beginning (and are currently most notable) thousands of miles away, in part of the Arctic Ocean north of Sibera known as the Kara Sea. That’s not all, however, a myriad of hemispheric changes are expected over the next few weeks.

Read more

John Homenuk

What we know about Monday’s potential snowstorm

/by

On the heels of a low pressure system which brought light snowfall to the area on Friday, a shortwave will drive southward through the Plains states on Saturday. Coming over the top of a mid and upper level ridge on the West Coast of the United States, the shortwave is forecast to amplify southward from the Plains states through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by Sunday. As a result, a surface low pressure will form and move from the Mid Atlantic States to a position off the Northeast Coast by Monday morning and afternoon.

Forecast models have been struggling to pin down details in regards to the mid and upper level features which will characterize the storm system. Earlier this week, models were in good agreement that the storm system would take a more southerly track. With the surface low moving from the Mississippi Valley to the Southern Mid Atlantic Coast, the main concern for our area would be precipitation staying too far south for meaningful snowfall. But in the past 24 hours, a noticeable trend toward a more amplified solution has emerged. Forecast models now track the system off the coast of New Jersey — raising concerns that precipitation type may change to sleet or rain across portions of the area on Monday.

Read more

John Homenuk

PM Update: Periods of snow, light accumulations tonight

/by

A quick blitz of snow will approach the area over the next several hours, especially across northern sections of the forecast area. Precipitation could briefly mix with sleet and rain in some areas, especially further south and near the coast. The precipitation comes out ahead of a low pressure system which is driving southeastward through Southeast Canada. Mid level energy will eventually force the low pressure system to redevelop in the Gulf of Maine, as a stronger low pressure system which could bring several inches of snow to the Maine Coast.

Closer to home,snow and mixed precipitation will lead to an increased risk of hazardous travel tonight. Although not a significant winter weather event by any means, briefly moderate snow could cover roads — especially those that are untreated. The precipitation is expected to pick up in intensity after dinner time and continue into the middle hours of the evening.

Read more