Posts

Doug Simonian

Tremendous Nor’Easter, significant snow possible Tuesday

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All of those cold and snowy winter forecasts may finally be validated. All of the latest numerical weather guidance has taken a rapid turn towards showing a significant winter storm — with blizzard conditions — affecting the entire area on Monday night into Tuesday. Although plenty of uncertainty still exists in regards to the details, it is becoming safe to say that a snowstorm or large proportions will be affecting the Northeast.

Currently, the  piece of energy that is forecast to develop into our storm is still in Montana, and it is diving southeastward as we speak. Previous forecasts had this piece of energy moving more progressively, not turning the corner in time to crawl up the East Coast, and thus passing seaward. One potential reason for this was because at the time, the piece of energy was still in the NE Pacific, where our data is quite limited. Once that piece of energy reached British Columbia last night, models were able to get a better idea of just how strong this system is, and have rapidly adjusted their forecast evolution of the feature — now indicating that will become much more amplified.

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Doug Simonian

The meteorology behind this weekend’s Nor’Easter

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This winter has not had a fair share of wintry events. The snowfall we have received has generally come from clipper systems, and the larger storm systems have been rain. But the weather pattern is changing towards one that favors major east coast storm development and potentially large snowfall events. It is not a slam-dunk by any means, since there are a lot of moving parts, but the pattern over the next few weeks certainly piques the interest of any meteorologist looking for potential winter weather events.

One of the main problems for getting major snowstorms this winter has been the very fast flow across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This means that any large storm that tried to amplify would get flattened out, as any ridging in the Pacific would get flattened like a pancake. This is going to change as we head towards this weekend.

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John Homenuk

Significant coastal storm could affect the area this weekend

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If you hung your hat on a quiet and benign winter after the slow start to December and January, you may want to rethink things. Forecast models are in good agreement on a significant coastal storm — yes, a Nor’Easter — impacting the area this weekend. The storm is likely to form as a result of a significant mid level atmospheric disturbance, which will shift from the Four Corners region of the United States northeastward through the Mississippi Valley and eventually off the coast of the Mid Atlantic States.

The disturbance will force the development of a strong low pressure system, which will shift from the Carolina coast to a position off the Mid Atlantic States and eventually a position near the 40/70 Benchmark on Saturday evening. Forecast models, however, remain somewhat undecided as to the evolution of the energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere — and the evolution and strength of the surface low as it moves up the coast. Obviously, this will have a major impact on the conditions that our area experiences including precipitation type and intensity.

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John Homenuk

Clipper could bring light snow accumulations Wednesday

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In a winter which has generally been defined by light snow events and fluctuating temperatures, this coming Wednesday could provide a continuation of the theme. A clipper system dropping south and east from Canada is likely to bring the potential for light snow on Wednesday as it moves through the Mid Atlantic states and eventually to a position off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Precipitation is expected to be generally light, but the potential exists for a few inches of snow before all is said and done.

What will become more difficult to forecast is the areas where bands of more steady snow will develop. Forecast models have jumped around considerably in regards to the area where these bands will set up. Confidence, currently, is highest in snowfall totals from 1 to 3 inches throughout the forecast area, with an outside chance of higher amounts underneath those steady bands.

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