Posts

John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: More rain likely tonight into Friday morning

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The Brief: Heavy rainfall is likely tonight into Friday. The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for a large majority of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. Localized flooding is a distinct possibility. The weather clears up for Friday and the weekend.

A forecast that once looked pleasant during the latter half of the week has turned unsettled, and you can thank the upper level jet stream (among other things) for that. Instead of cool, crisp air and sun, the end of the week will feature a period of heavy rainfall from late Thursday night into Friday as another low pressure system develops offshore and sends moisture surging up the coast.

Previously, forecast models had suggested that the rainfall would remain well offshore and that any impacts would be periodic and/or non-impactful. As recently as Tuesday, however, hints began to emerge that the forecast was changing. Forecast guidance was tweaking the orientation of the upper level jet stream, and the trends were a tip-off to the fact that the forecast late this week was about to take an ugly turn.

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Miguel Pierre

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Update: Rain, Winds, Rough Surf for the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday

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Good afternoon! Our forecasting team continues to monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, currently sitting off the South Carolina coast. The system still looks lacks a well-defined center of circulation this afternoon. However, deep convection has increased around and east of the center. It still possible that storm will gain enough organization for it to be classified as tropical depression or Tropical Storm Irma tonight or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings have now been issued for parts of the North Carolina coast.

The storm is still underneath some strong west-southwesterly shear. If this becomes a tropical cyclone, it’s unlikely that this system will intensify into a hurricane before becoming a non-tropical storm or Nor’easter by Tuesday night or Wednesday off the Delmarva. Regardless of classification, potential impacts are not likely to change along the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Coasts. Heavy rainfall will likely spread northward over Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia later tonight. Rainfall totals between 2” to 4” with locally higher amounts are likely. East-northeast winds will likely gust to tropical storm force between 40mph and 60mph.

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Miguel Pierre

AG/Energy AM Update: Harvey Strengthening & Expected to Become a Hurricane

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Good morning! This is a special morning update on Harvey in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Harvey became a tropical storm overnight and continues to strengthen this morning, as convection increased and deepened around the center. As of the 8am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm has maximum sustained winds of 60mph, minimum central pressure has dropped to 986mb and the storm moving north-northwest at 10mph. Further strengthening is likely today, as the storm continues to move over very warm waters in the Western Gulf of Mexico and the atmospheric environment becomes more favorable. Harvey is now expected to become a hurricane by tonight or Friday. Thus a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Port Mansfield to Matagorda along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for other parts of Texas and Northeast Mexico coast.

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Miguel Pierre

Heavy Rainfall & Strong -Severe T-Storms Possible Today

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Good morning! Happy Friday! More unsettled weather for today, as a frontal system and shortwave trough moves through during the day. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning, as warm front moves through the region. Instability is mostly weak or elevated. So the main threat with these showers and thunderstorms will be some heavy downpours, that could cause some localized minor flooding on roadways and poor drainage areas. Otherwise, later today, as the warm front lifts further northward, skies may clear for some sunshine by early this afternoon. This will help temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Except over Long Island and south-facing shores,  more southerly winds will keep temperatures from rising out of the mid-upper 70s.

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