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PTC10Infared

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Update: Rain, Winds, Rough Surf for the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday

Good afternoon! Our forecasting team continues to monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, currently sitting off the South Carolina coast. The system still looks lacks a well-defined center of circulation this afternoon. However, deep convection has increased around and east of the center. It still possible that storm will gain enough organization for it to be classified as tropical depression or Tropical Storm Irma tonight or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings have now been issued for parts of the North Carolina coast.

The storm is still underneath some strong west-southwesterly shear. If this becomes a tropical cyclone, it’s unlikely that this system will intensify into a hurricane before becoming a non-tropical storm or Nor’easter by Tuesday night or Wednesday off the Delmarva. Regardless of classification, potential impacts are not likely to change along the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Coasts. Heavy rainfall will likely spread northward over Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia later tonight. Rainfall totals between 2” to 4” with locally higher amounts are likely. East-northeast winds will likely gust to tropical storm force between 40mph and 60mph.

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AG/Energy AM Update: Harvey Strengthening & Expected to Become a Hurricane

Good morning! This is a special morning update on Harvey in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Harvey became a tropical storm overnight and continues to strengthen this morning, as convection increased and deepened around the center. As of thge 8am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm has maximum sustained winds of 60mph, minimum central pressure has dropped to 986mb and the storm moving north-northwest at 10mph. Further strengthening is likely today, as the storm continues to move over very warm waters in the Western Gulf of Mexico and the atmospheric environment becomes more favorable. Harvey is now likely to become a hurricane by tonight or Friday. Thus a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Port Mansfield to Matagorda along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for other parts of Texas and Northeast Mexico coast.

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Heavy Rainfall & Strong -Severe T-Storms Possible Today

Good morning! Happy Friday! More unsettled weather for today, as a frontal system and shortwave trough moves through during the day. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning, as warm front moves through the region. Instability is mostly weak or elevated. So the main threat with these showers and thunderstorms will be some heavy downpours, that could cause some localized minor flooding on roadways and poor drainage areas. Otherwise, later today, as the warm front lifts further northward, skies may clear for some sunshine by early this afternoon. This will help temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Except over Long Island and south-facing shores,  more southerly winds will keep temperatures from rising out of the mid-upper 70s.

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5.22 AM Zones Update: Unsettled Weather Pattern This Week, Memorial Day Weekend Weather

Good morning! Some showers that have been moving across the region overnight and early this morning were associated with shortwave energy, undercutting upper-level ridge. More rain is likely to overspread the region from the southwest, later this morning and into early this afternoon, as a frontal system with a weak wave of low pressure along it approaches the region.

Latest model guidance indicates some weak instability and strong moisture convergence along a warm/coastal front with precipitable water values between 1.50” to 2.00”. This will likely rain, heavy at times with some isolated thunderstorms possible over Central and Southern NJ and over parts of Long Island and Coastal CT. Where between 1” to 2” is more likely to fall. Some locally heavier totals are possible from any thunderstorms with torrential downpours and some localized flash flooding, especially in poor drainage and low-lying areas.

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