Posts

Miguel Pierre

Premium Long Range: Cooler, Active Pattern Next Week…More Changes Late Month?

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Good morning! More summer-like weather with more heat and humidity will continue for the rest of the week,with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon or evening. But it appears the Western Hemispheric pattern will undergo another more significant changes to support some cooler weather again for next week.

First changes, will start occurring over North Pacific as usual this week. An upper-level low will be near the Aleutian Islands or Southwest Alaska. This will cause a high-amplitude ridge to build over the West Coast by early next week. This will result in a larger trough digging and encompassing much of the Central and Eastern US over for next week.  Then cooler airmasses from Canada will be invading the CONUS, with temperatures well below over the much of the Northern and Central Plains and into parts of Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Long Range: A Look at the Western Hemispheric Pattern and Tropics in August

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Late last week, we saw our second heat wave of the summer over many parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. It may have appeared to some people, that may be we have turned the tide toward more hot and humid pattern for the rest of the summer. But this pattern much cooler and unsettled this week. Now there are increasing indications from several climate phenomena and long-range ensemble guidance of major pattern change now occurring over the Pacific Basin, that will support a cooler pattern, for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, at least the first couple weeks of August.

Overall Pattern

On the long-range ensemble guidance, the atmospheric pattern changes start out in the Pacific. A large trough will be over parts Southeast Asia and Western Pacific and in turn support a ridge near or just south of the Aleutian Islands and a large trough or upper-level low over more of the Gulf of Alaska and Northeast Pacific. This North Pacific pattern overall will continue to support more profound heat ridge in parts of the Western and Central US. More ridging over Greenland/Davis Strait will also result in a more negative NAO pattern. This entire pattern throughout the Western Hemisphere will on average support deeper troughiness in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and stronger Western Atlantic ridge to build over next couple weeks. But we do know ensembles and weeklies in general in the super long-ranges are less reliable. So what climate phenomena is potentially influence this pattern?

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Miguel Pierre

Weekly Outlook: Strong-Severe T-Storms Today…More Tropical Moisture By This Weekend?

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A cold front associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes, will be approaching the region, with some showers and thunderstorms by this evening A southwesterly flow ahead of this front, will cause dewpoints to rise into upper 60s and 70s this by afternoon. This will result in very warm, muggy day with temperatures reaching the mid-upper 80s away from the coast, with some sunshine this afternoon. Sea-breezes near the coast will keep temperatures from rising out of the upper 70s to lower 80s. More southerly winds  will also lead high risk of rip current this afternoon along along south-shore facing beaches of NYC/Long Island and Central New Jersey.

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John Homenuk

What to know about Hermine and how it may affect the Northeast

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Tropical Storm Hermine formed earlier today in the Central Gulf of Mexico, after several days of being tracked and obsessively monitored by meteorologists and weather hobbyists alike. Regardless, the storm has strengthened over the last 24 hours and is expected to continue to do so as it moves northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Thereafter, forecast models have taken a dramatic turn in their handling of the storm system.

Current forecast model guidance and ensemble data suggests that Hermine, after making landfall along the Florida Peninsula, will track northeastward along the Southeast Coast before re-emerging off the Mid Atlantic shoreline. As this occurs, the storm will begin to interact with an upper level system which is forecast to drop southward through the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic States. This interaction may pull Hermine westward back towards the Mid Atlantic and/or Northeast US coasts by late this weekend into Labor Day.

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