Posts

John Homenuk

Significant winter storm begins, widespread impacts likely

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Snowstorm Impact | 8/10 (Severe)

3:00pm Update: The winter storm is continuing to come together across the Northern Mid Atlantic. Snowfall rates have increased area-wide and will continue to become more steady, as banding in the storm system develops. The dynamic aspect of the system is still ongoing, transferring the coastal low that will become dominant. As this occurs, bands of heavier snow should pivot inland towards NJ, NYC, and Long Island.

So far, around 4.5″ of snow has fallen at Central Park, and a similar amount at Newark. Some areas are observing local differences, which is typical. But with heavier/steadier snow rates continuing and sunset approaching, we expect accumulations to become more widespread, even on roadways throughout the region. The latest radar shows the bands well, especially over Northern NJ and NYC over the past 30 minutes.

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Nicer weekend, winter storm possible next week

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Friday’s Weather Rating | 5/10 (Fair)

Friday began with a bit of a different tune than the past few days – although it’s cold this morning, it is not quite as blustery and the risk of snow squalls has been reduced. In other words, the air feels a bit less “wintry”, as the airmass itself begins to modify a bit to its surroundings. It’s still quite cold though and honestly, several degrees below average for this time of year, and you can feel it throughout the majority of the Northeast states today.

The weather over this weekend will remain much colder than average for this time of year. Temperatures are forecast by the European model to run several degrees below normal on both Saturday and Sunday throughout the Northeast states, as arctic high pressure redevelops and aids in funneling cold air southward from Canada. This secondary surge of cold air is being driven by the redevelopment of a Greenland Block, which by this point has become a thorn in the side of many, as it has been the impetus for this late season winter weather surge. Low temperatures tonight throughout a large part of the area will fall down into the mid to upper 20’s and may even reach the teens in some suburbs.

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Close call with another storm on Monday

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Today’s Weather Rating | 4/10

Another wintry day is on tap today as snow showers and squalls impact the Northeast states. An upper level low is lingering over the Northeast states and providing just enough lift in the atmosphere to create the opportunity for these areas of light snow. Any accumulations should be very limited and brief, but keep an eye out for slick spots on the area roadways with this snow and any ice from overnight.

The focus then turns to the potential for another coastal storm late this weekend and early next week. Yesterday we detailed the threat and the reasoning behind our ideas that the system would miss the NYC Area to the south. Forecast models yesterday evening and overnight didn’t do much to help make the forecast any more clear.

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John Homenuk

Another storm possible Monday, but impacts less certain

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On the heels of two significant Nor’Easters, one of which many are still recovering from after heavy snow downed trees and brought travel to a halt in the suburbs on Wednesday, forecast models are suggesting the potential for a third storm system late this weekend and Monday across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states. The pattern in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, however, remains a bit convoluted and crowded – and confidence is quite low in how the system evolves.

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