Beautiful weather has settled in to the Northeast states to start the week – and Monday was one to write home about. Temperatures thus far have been warm and weather conditions have been quiet. This comes as welcomed news after a weekend of active weather and severe storms.
As the week goes on, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase. This will reach a climax this weekend, when the potential for heavy rain is expected to increase.
https://i0.wp.com/www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/ECMWFcropped.png?fit=977%2C442&ssl=1442977Miguel Pierrehttps://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.pngMiguel Pierre2019-07-01 20:59:442019-07-02 14:17:32Active weather returns this week with showers and storms
We’ve got some bad news for those of you searching for long, sunny summer days. An unsettled weather pattern looks likely to continue over the next week, characterized by frequent showers and thunderstorms. A warm front meandering near the area is the culprit in ensuring that the pattern remains less than ideal.
Opportunities for showers and storms will begin on Monday, with afternoon storms expected across Central and Southern New Jersey. While the worst of the storms will miss the NYC Metro Area to the south, showery and cloudy activity is still expected.
Meanwhile, further south, a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected near a warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has, accordingly, placed parts of the Mid Atlantic in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The main threat with this activity on Monday afternoon will be strong wind gusts.
The pattern remains active
Even after storms pass through the area on Monday, additional rounds are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday, in particular, looks to feature mostly showery activity. Our area will be on the “wrong” side of the warm front. In other words, it won’t be warm, but there will be enough lift for precipitation.
Showers and storms are (surprise!) again possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening with another disturbance approaching the area. The main show, however, looks likely to come on Thursday when a more notable storm system approaches New England from the west/southwest.
It remains to be seen exactly how much instability will develop throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. This will be a major factor in determining how impactful thunderstorms might be. The Storm Prediction Center has mentioned the region in their extended outlook:
Some severe risk should exist across parts of the southeast into the oh/tn valleys, mid atlantic, and perhaps the northeast on day 4/thursday as an anomalously amplified upper trough continues eastward over these regions. Instability is not currently forecast to be as strong thursday afternoon ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, owing mainly to a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates. However, strengthening mid-level flow suggests a potential for organized severe thunderstorms. A 15% severe area may eventually be introduced on day 4/thursday for some portion of these regions.
Storm Prediction Center
As we move closer to the end of the week, confidence will increase in regards to the factors that may contribute to the threat for strong and severe thunderstorms. Until then, we can proceed with the knowledge that unsettled weather will continue through the week.
The light at the end of the tunnel looks to become a bit brighter as we move toward the weekend, with some signs that high pressure will build in for a few days. This could result in a much needed stretch of dry and pleasant weather during the weekend ahead.
Here’s hoping.
https://i0.wp.com/www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/notdry.png?fit=1097%2C503&ssl=15031097John Homenukhttps://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.pngJohn Homenuk2019-06-17 11:06:572019-06-17 14:00:36No good news: Unsettled weather to continue
After three days of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances, the weather pattern has finally settled down today. This comes as welcome news to almost everyone – including meteorologists! – who are in desperate need of a break and some sunshine. Friday will be a beautiful day, really, with high temperatures in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s and plentiful sunshine. You can thank high pressure for that, which built in behind the frontal boundary that was finally pushed out of the area on Thursday evening.
The calm and warm weather is likely to persist until Saturday. Most forecast models are in good agreement that high pressure will remain in control and ridging aloft will gradually build into the area through Saturday morning. This essentially means that the weather will remain warm and calm through that time frame.
https://i0.wp.com/www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/header.png?fit=1517%2C772&ssl=17721517John Homenukhttps://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.pngJohn Homenuk2019-05-31 10:30:522019-05-31 10:30:52Weekend Outlook: Calmer weather settles in, isolated storms still possible
Happy Saturday! High pressure will continue to provide partly to mostly sunny skies today. Temperatures will be a little cooler than on Friday. But it will still be warm this afternoon with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s throughout much of the New Jersey and New York City area. Winds will be mostly light out the north and west during the day. This will allow for sea-breezes to develop this afternoon, which may keep Long Island and shore areas from rising out of the upper 60s. But overall it will be a beautiful day for the entire region.
https://i0.wp.com/www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/3kmNAMtempscropped.png?fit=832%2C551&ssl=1551832Miguel Pierrehttps://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.pngMiguel Pierre2019-05-18 11:48:082019-05-18 11:55:33Beautiful warm weather overall this weekend, scattered storms possible late Sunday and Monday
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