Warm, Muggy, and Unsettled Pattern to Continue for the Foreseeable Future

A strong ridge in the West, combined with a strong West Atlantic Ridge, will combine to funnel in warm, moist air from the Atlantic and Gulf. This will help to create a warm, muggy, and at times, wet weather pattern.

A strong ridge in the West, combined with a strong West Atlantic Ridge, will combine to funnel in warm, moist air from the Atlantic and Gulf. This will help to create a warm, muggy, and at times, wet weather pattern. This image is valid for tomorrow at 8 p.m.

 

Over the past several days, the humidity has really spiked, creating a true summer-like feel. There have also been afternoon thunderstorms in the area. This pattern will continue over the next week or so, and potentially even longer. And while there should not be one full washout day, there will be periods of heavy rain at times on any given day or night, adding up to several inches of rain over a week’s period for most of the region.

We currently have a pattern where there is a very strong ridge in the western half of the country, as evidenced by the image above. Additionally, there is a strong Western Atlantic ridge that is trying to poke towards our area. Clockwise flow around this strong ridge will help to yield a deep, moist southerly flow, giving our area plenty of warmth and moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. These two features are pretty large in scale, and are thus going to be pretty stagnant. Thus, this pattern should stick around a while. It’s a very Florida-like pattern — welcome to Florida!

Another important aspect of the pattern that these two ridges create is the trough in the eastern half of the country; primarily over the Great Lakes. Since these two ridges are strong and stagnant, a trough gets wedged in-between those ridges, further helping to induce southerly flow on the downstream side of the trough,  and also increasing cyclogenesis potential in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Any storm system that dives down into the Great Lakes and Northeast will have plenty of moisture to work with, creating a plentiful moisture source for heavy downpours.

Lots of days in the near-future may start off sunny in the morning, but will have increasing clouds in the afternoon with widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms developing. As you can see in the image above, a shortwave is heading for the northeast tomorrow night, which will help create the potential for heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms for tomorrow night. If enough sunshine can occur in the morning and early afternoon to destabilize the atmosphere, a severe weather threat may ensue, with a few strong to severe wind gusts and an isolated low-level mesocyclone/tornado threat. The storms system will help to generate some south and southeast winds at the surface, while also creating a strong low-level jet at 850mb out of the southwest, inducing a bit of low-level rotation and shear.

As of now, we primarily think that the strongest severe weather threat will be a bit to our southwest, but there is still a chance for something in our area, so everyone should keep in tune with weather forecasts tomorrow. Regardless, the wind profile at all levels of the atmosphere will be very favorable for moisture throughout the entire atmospheric column, so the threat for heavy downpours and flash flooding is high for tomorrow evening. Definitely have your umbrellas tomorrow!

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Infrared satellite imagery from June 21, 2013 showing the quiet pattern across the Northeast US.

Summer begins with splendid weather

Astronomical summer officially begins at 1:04am on Friday with the summer solstice, but the weather may more resemble early to mid spring. Lower dew points and temperatures in the upper 70’s to low 80’s will be common throughout the area on Friday, making it the third in a string of several days of pleasant weather expected through the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures and humidity will be on the climb by the end of the weekend, however, with an increased chance of storminess expected by early next week. Enjoy the pleasant air while it sticks around!

Today (Friday): Sunny with highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. South winds from 5 to 10 miles per hour. A bit cooler near the shore.

Tonight: Clear, with lows in the 50’s to lower 60’s. As usual, it will be colder outside of the city. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Saturday: Sunny with highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. South winds from 5 to 10 miles per hour.

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Visible satellite imagery from June 20, 2013 showing clear and pleasant weather across the Northeast US.

Pleasant weather through the weekend

High pressure, settled in over the Northeast United States, is providing pleasant weather with little clouds and near-average temperatures. Lowered humidity and a lack of rain chances has the weather feeling extra-special, after a week or two of unsettled weather which featured chances of showers and storms each day. Over the next few days, a slow warming trend is expected as a ridge builds into the area aloft. This will bring warmer air into the Northeast US from the west-southwest with time, bringing high temperatures into the 80’s by this weekend.

Early next week, the forecast looks to take a bit of a summery turn with increased heat and humidity as well as chances for organized storms. That’s still fairly far into the forecast, however, so for now try to enjoy the benign and pleasant weather which is in the forecast through this weekend!

Rest of Today (Thursday): Sunny, with highs near 80. South winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. A gem of a day.

Tonight: Clear and a bit cool, with lows in the upper 50’s to near 60. Cooler inland away from the city. Southwest winds around 10 miles per hour.

Friday: Sunny, with highs near 80. South winds from 5 to 10 miles per hour. Another gem. Summer solstice (official beginning of summer) occurs just after 1am — also the longest day of the year!

 

Forecast: Unsettled weather returns

After a splendid Saturday which featured plenty of sun and warmer temperatures, unsettled weather has returned to the forecast during the second half of this weekend. Multiple disturbances moving through the atmosphere aloft will touch off clouds, showers and the potential for thunderstorms throughout the area on Sunday afternoon. Much of the same is forecast on both Monday and Tuesday, although the sun should make an appearance at some point on both days. Check out the express forecast below, and have a terrific Sunday!

Rest of Today/Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Some breaks of sun possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70’s. West/southwest winds around 15 miles per hour.

Monday: Partly cloudy and warmer, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms particularly in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80’s. Southwest winds around 15 miles per hour. Some of the storms could produce heavy downpours. Feeling more humid with rising dew points.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with highs in the lower 80’s. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds continuing around 15 miles per hour.