On the heels of a low pressure system which brought light snowfall to the area on Friday, a shortwave will drive southward through the Plains states on Saturday. Coming over the top of a mid and upper level ridge on the West Coast of the United States, the shortwave is forecast to amplify southward from the Plains states through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by Sunday. As a result, a surface low pressure will form and move from the Mid Atlantic States to a position off the Northeast Coast by Monday morning and afternoon.
Forecast models have been struggling to pin down details in regards to the mid and upper level features which will characterize the storm system. Earlier this week, models were in good agreement that the storm system would take a more southerly track. With the surface low moving from the Mississippi Valley to the Southern Mid Atlantic Coast, the main concern for our area would be precipitation staying too far south for meaningful snowfall. But in the past 24 hours, a noticeable trend toward a more amplified solution has emerged. Forecast models now track the system off the coast of New Jersey — raising concerns that precipitation type may change to sleet or rain across portions of the area on Monday.