Prolonged period of wintry weather to start the week
A winter storm affecting the Northeast United States will begin as early as Sunday throughout the area, as lift for precipitation develops along a baroclinic zone and thermal gradient near the area. The forecast in terms of precipitation type and amounts, however, is not as cut and dry as it may seem. The thermal gradient both at the surface and aloft will differ in location, creating widespread differences in precipitation type and a very sharp gradient in potential snowfall and winter weather impacts.
In the mid levels, warming will occur between 850-900mb (above our heads, but not very far up in the atmosphere). This warm layer will push northward to a position near New York City on Monday. What this means, is that any snowflake which forms farther up in the atmosphere will fall through a layer of air that is above freezing. Essentially, it will melt. But our problems don’t stop there — the surface layer of the atmosphere (where we are) is very cold. And that means any precipitation which falls as liquid is going to re-freeze on the surface.