What a turn around this winter has been able to pull off over the past week or two. Record-breaking warmth in December gave way to arctic blasts and a historic, crippling blizzard this month. We also saw an atypical fantastic performance prior to the blizzard by the NAM model for this region. We warned the winter could return with a vengeance in a public article we wrote shortly after Christmas. Pattern signals and ensemble guidance were strongly hinting at opportunities for more cold and snow.
While many aspects of our Winter Forecast published in November have worked out, there have been setbacks and surprises as well. This post will serve as an update and stepping stone for the several weeks of winter still left to come.