Heavy Showers and Localized Flooding Possible Wednesday

A deep low is producing blizzard conditions over the Northern Plains and severe weather over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. This low will track into the Great Lakes and send a frontal system through the area on Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding in the local region.

A warm front will push slowly northward through the region during the day tomorrow. This will cause clouds to increase and areas of fog and drizzle to develop late tonight. Some scattered showers are possible early tomorrow morning and the midday hours tomorrow, especially northwest of New York City. Showers will likely become more numerous and widespread over the region later tomorrow afternoon and evening, via a strong cold front approaching the region. Some elevated instability may even support an isolated thunderstorm.

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Premium: Midweek storm system hazards analysis

A significant storm system will develop this week, moving from the Southwestern United States into the Central Plains states by midweek. In the Northern Plains, blizzard conditions are expected to develop, with significant snowfall and high winds. Farther south and east, across the Arklatex, Mississippi River Valley, and northward to parts of the Ohio Valley, severe weather is anticipated as the storm system progresses northeastward.

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January 2016 Blizzard draws parallels to famous ’96 storm

We’ve all heard it before: “There will never be another storm like the Blizzard of ’96”.

And then there was.

This past weekends blizzard will be remembered for many things. 30 inches of snow at Kennedy Airport, drifts above windows and along sides of homes, strong wind gusts and damaging coastal flooding (yes, Gov. Christie). Meteorologically, however, it will stand as a testament to the fact that analogs, no matter how wild they may seem, can be a tremendously useful tool in forecasting.

During the medium range period on forecast models, specifically between days 3 and 5, analog tools and algorithms were continuously signaling the Blizzard of 1996 (January 6-8, 1996) as a tremendously high percentage analog. The evolution of the storm system at multiple levels of the atmosphere was comparable to what forecast models were indicating. And as it turned out, the Blizzard of 2016 would have a very similar evolution and outcome to the famed ’96 Blizzard.

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