John Homenuk

Arctic air, storminess, and pattern longevity

/1 Comment/by

Synopsis: Arctic air drops into the Northeast US late this week, with temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal. A storm pattern continues with another winter storm expected this weekend. The longevity of this cold comes into question as Christmas week approaches with the return of a Southeast Ridge.

Before we start, to sign up for daily articles (like this one) videos, discussions, interactives and more, contact our team here. 

Lets face it — there has been a ton of conversation in regards to this colder pattern over the past few weeks. Our team of forecasters has been talking about it for more than a few weeks now –and it is finally arriving this week. A piece of the polar vortex (yes, the one you hear about a lot) will drop southward into Canada and eventually through parts of the Northeast states late this week. This will lead to temperatures dropping well below normal over a large part of the region.

Read more

John Homenuk

Arctic air arrives, multiple wintry chances late week

/by

Lets face it, the term “Polar Vortex” has become overused and oversaturated over the past few years. This time, however, it is certainly applicable: A piece of the polar vortex will be swinging southwards this week through New England, bringing with it extremely cold temperatures and an arctic airmass which is decidedly unusual for this time of year.

We spoke a few weeks ago about how the intrusion of this type of air was likely, due to the presence of a large ridge building from Alaska to the North Pole. The time has finally come, and the airmass over the Northeast US by the end of this week will feature temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal averages for this time of year.

Read more

John Homenuk

Wintry weather likely in the Northeast Sunday into Monday

/by

A much discussed storm system will finally make its trek east through the United States this weekend, arriving in the Ohio Valley and Northeast United States from Sunday into Monday. An initial disturbance pushes eastwards on Sunday, shearing out and weakening but still providing the impetus for some preliminary wintry weather. The more significant disturbance waits until Sunday Night and Monday to impact the Northeast US, bringing with it a significant amount of moisture and lift for precipitation. Snow is expected to shift northeastwards from the Ohio Valley gradually as Sunday evening goes on.

That’s where the complications begin: A surge of warm air associated with the system will be battling a departing high pressure, which will be on borrowed time as it moves away into the Atlantic Ocean. This spells the likelihood of mixed precipitation and transitioning precipitation types after a start as snow, especially near the coast where wintry precipitation amounts will be extremely limited. But inland, where cold air is expected to be more stout, a few inches of snow are possible before the changeover.

Read more

John Homenuk

First in a series of wintry events likely late this weekend

/by

A changing hemispheric pattern will lead to the development of an active, colder regime across the Northern 1/3 of the United States. Changes are already afoot, and are expected to continue developing through this weekend. A large ridge building near Alaska will begin forcing arctic air southwards into Canada, suppressing the jet stream in the United States and allowing colder air to seep into the Northern 1/3 of the country.

An active jet stream pattern is expected to continue to bring disturbances into the United States with relative frequency. The first arrives late this weekend into early next week, and forecast models have come into relative agreement on the storm system’s evolution. There are still considerable uncertainties regarding track and intensity, all of which will have major impacts on sensible weather.

Read more