Miguel Pierre

Thursday Briefing: Warmer Weekend, Northeast Snow Monday or Tuesday?

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Good morning! Very cold and dry weather is expected through today and tonight, as arctic high pressure will remain in control over the Northeast. Mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The very same clear skies will continue through tonight, as low temperatures fall into the teens over the interior and the lower 20’s even in urban areas.

High pressure will begin moving offshore on Friday, so temperatures will begin to moderate tomorrow afternoon into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Friday night will be warmer for many areas — but some radiational cooling should still allow for the Interior Valleys and Pine Barrens to drop into upper teens or low 20s by daybreak.

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John Homenuk

Timing and breadth of cold will be critical as February approaches

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Good evening! We’ve discussed for some time now the expected development (or should we say return) of anomalous cold across the Northern Hemisphere, more specifically the southward movement of this cold into Canada and the United States. In our post yesterday, we dove into the details of why we are so confident that this cold will occur, and how the seeds are already planted and growing for the change to occur.

However, while we look ahead to the cold’s development and entrance into Canada and the United States, it will become increasingly important for us to understand the timing of the pattern change – including where the cold will be most prevalent first, and how it is expected to move across the country. While pinning down these details is an inherently imperfect science at this range, we can utilize multiple long-range forecasting tools and analogs to find clues as to how things will behave.

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John Homenuk

Pattern change likely as February approaches with cold, stormy risks

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A happy Tuesday morning to you all! We hope you are having a great start to your week. The weather across the United States has moderated quite a bit over the past several days, as you may have noticed, and from an energy standpoint this has led to a fairly substantial decrease in heating demand country-wide. This marked a fairly significant change from the early part of the winter and first half of the month. This warmth is expected to continue for the next 10 to 14 days, with ECMWF EPS and GEFS in good agreement. 

It is important to take a look at why this airmass is so much different than the one that brought deep, arctic cold to the United States just a few short weeks ago. When we take a look at the hemispheric weather pattern, there are a few significant pieces that are “driving” the weather pattern from a synoptic standpoint. First, we can look to the higher latitudes in Canada and the Arctic regions. 

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Miguel Pierre

Monday Briefing: Blizzard in the Plains, unsettled weather East

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Good morning, everyone! A new week begins today with much warmer weather in the Eastern United States, particularly the Northeast states where temperatures are running well above average. This is obviously a major change compared to what has been experienced there over the past several weeks. Much of this can be attributed to warmer, Pacific air that has become entrenched in the Eastern United States over the past few days. Temperatures are expected to run 10-20 degrees above normal averages on both Monday and Tuesday!

Meanwhile, the weather will become increasingly unsettled. Increasing moisture and lift in the atmosphere will lead to drizzle and unsettled conditions across the Eastern United States. This issue will be exacerbated by the presence of a strong low pressure system, which is leading to the development of a blizzard across the Northern Plains. The low pressure is bringing warm air to the East, but much more significant weather out west – where very heavy snow and significant travel impacts are anticipated.

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