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Warmer and Dry Through the Weekend, Heavy Rain Possible Early Next Week

Good evening! 

Today was another cold and dry January day across most of the Northeast as we remain in a rather uneventful pattern for the next couple of days. The jet stream is currently locked in a fast-moving west to east flow across the entire nation. This quick flow does not allow for any disturbances to strengthen and become large storms as the mid level energy that fuels them tends to become sheared out. Despite the quick zonal flow, some cooler air in the mid levels has still been able to bleed down from the southern regions of Canada and into the Northeast. Combined with very dry conditions in the mid levels of the atmosphere, this lead to a seasonably cold and partly sunny day. Highs ranged from the lower to middle 30’s for locations in and around the immediate NYC area, with readings in the lower to upper 40’s across portions of southern New Jersey. This large gradient has been due to more warm air rising up from the south due to increasing mid level heights to our west. Heights will continue to rise through the evening and overnight hours, which will cause surface winds to take on a more southwesterly component. This should in turn usher in more mild air for the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast, with highs likely a good 10-15 degrees warmer than last night. This will equate to lows only getting down into the lower to middle 30’s from the city on south, with locations to the north and west likely seeing temperatures in the middle 20’s.

This afternoons high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional surface observations, regional radar mosaic, showing a rather calm and cold day across the Northeast. Note the ice jam located juts to the south of the "MDT" in southeast PA

This afternoons high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional surface observations, regional radar mosaic, showing a rather calm and cold day across the Northeast. Note the ice jam located juts to the south of the “MDT” in southeast PA

Tranquil Through the Weekend

Saturday will likely start off rather clear and cool as mid level ridging continues to build over the Ohio Valley. Westerly flow will be quite stout in all levels of the atmosphere, with mid level temperatures warming up quite a bit during the day. The combination of warming mid levels and relatively clear skies should allow for temperatures to rise in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s during the afternoon hours. This will be well-above normal for this time of year and it should be a pretty great day to get some chores done around the house. Clear and clam conditions are expected into the evenings and overnight hours with lows likely staying in the lower to middle 30’s for the majority of the NYC area,

Sunday may start off with a few more mid level clouds than Saturday as a large storm system begins to take shape in the Plains. This developing low pressure will greatly enhance the amount of southerly flow over the region on Sunday, which should also work to bring in some more moisture to work with in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. This means that despite the increasing mid level temperatures, cloud cover will likely cap off the temperatures right around where they were on Saturday, with middle 40’s to lower 50’s expected. A very weak cold front may try to approach the Northeast late in the evening on Sunday, but this front will likely lack significant moisture to produce anything outside of some scattered showers.

This afternoons NAM model showing increasing mid level temperatures ahead of a large storm system developing in the Plains

This afternoons NAM model showing increasing mid level temperatures ahead of a large storm system developing in the Plains

Heavy Rain Possible Early Next Week

The same large Pacific trough that we have been talking about for the better part of the last week will be digging deep into the Rockies and southern Plains by Sunday night, which will trigger a surface low to develop over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. This system will have deep tropical moisture feeding into it from the Gulf of Mexico and as a result, a very expansive area of precipitation will likely fan out with the help of an impressive upper level jet streak. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will likely fall over the northern Plains, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms likely across the Ozarks and Gulf Coast. This system will likely then begin to weaken as it occludes, but the strong moisture feed will continue to pump northward as the low moves east towards the Great Lakes. By this time the entire East coast should be deep within the warm sector of this system, with temperatures likely reaching into the well-above normal category once again. The models really have not changed much at all over the last 48 hours, with the consensus showing a line of heavy showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms moving through the Northeast on Tuesday morning. Widespread flooding does not seem to be a concern right now due to the speed of the associated cold front. However, this rain will likely be impacting the morning commute in one way or another, so make sure to check back over the next few days as we continue to monitor this large and impactful system!

This afternoons European Ensembles showing a rather high probability for heavy rain to occur during the Tuesday morning commute over a large section of the Northeast

This afternoons European Ensembles showing a rather high probability for heavy rain to occur during the Tuesday morning commute over a large section of the Northeast

Have a great weekend! 

Steven Copertino 

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Friday Briefing: Warmer times East, winter storm looms in Plains

Good morning and Happy Friday! We’re excited to introduce our daily briefing posts. Think of these as your “go-to” posts for weather information in the morning, whether you’re sipping a coffee or sitting on the train. Or both. We’ll lay out the important weather information with links and details on what’s ahead. More technical posts will follow throughout the day – but these will be the first checkpoint to see what’s going on.

So here we are! It has been a long and hard stretch of cold weather in the Northeast States. In fact, January is running well below normal in terms of temperature essentially from the Great Plains to the Northeast US Coast. That’s all about to change – big time changes in the Pacific Ocean will lead to changes in how the atmosphere is behaving across the United States. The storm track will shift west, and a ridge will build over the East. The result? Warmer temperatures for the East Coast and a pattern that will become inherently less wintry.

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Snowstorm Exits, Warmer Conditions Ahead Next Week

Good Evening! 

The snowstorm that we have been discussing for the past week has finally exited the region after dropping light to moderate snow for most locations. Due to onshore flow, precipitation mainly started out as rain over portions of New Jersey and southern New York, but colder air associated with the frontal system over Pennsylvania gradually made its way south. This caused the rain to flip to snow over much of the area, with coastal sections of New Jersey and Connecticut seeing plain rain. Rain was also quite common over the majority of Long Island this afternoon, as winds from the east kept temperatures in the middle to upper 30’s. Snow totals around the New York city metro area were generally light with a trace to three inches common for most locations. Totals over the southern half of New York state were a bit higher, with 6-10″ being reported due to snow from the frontal system as well as the weak coastal low. All major NYC airports reported less than one inch of snow as of 4pm, so travel likely will not be impacted all that much tonight.

This evenings latest RTMA 2m temperature analysis, surface observations, and regional radar mosaic showing the snowstorm exiting off the coast

This evenings latest RTMA 2m temperature analysis, surface observations, and regional radar mosaic showing the snowstorm exiting off the coast

Conditions this evening and into the overnight hours will be generally calm as drier air begins to work in at all levels of the atmosphere. This should pretty much kill any chance of residual snow showers, but there could be a brief flurry or two mainly to the north of NYC. Winds will begin to increase from the north and northwest as another coastal low begins to strengthen well to our south. This system will have absolutely no impact on our weather this evening outside of some occasionally gusty winds. The northwesterly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere combined with the fresh snow pack over much of the Northeast will lead to some pretty cold temperatures overnight, with lows getting down into the upper teens and low 20’s across the immediate NYC area, with locations to the north and west likely seeing lows well into the teens and single digits. This will cause a chance for some of the snow that melted this afternoon to quickly refreeze on untreated roads, so please use caution when traveling.

 

Snow totals from around the immediate NYC area courtesy of the NWS in Upton, NY

Snow totals from around the immediate NYC area courtesy of the NWS in Upton, NY

Warmer and Calm Conditions Through the Weekend

Thursday will be the last cold day across the Northeast for a bit of time as mid level ridging begins to build quite a bit over the central part of the United States tomorrow. Highs will likely remain below freezing during the day, with readings staying in the middle to upper 20’s for northern locations, with lower to middle 30’s possible south of New York City. A weak shortwave trough looks to pass through portions of southern Canada by

Friday afternoon, and this could spark some light snow over portions of northern New England, mainly over ski country. Otherwise, mid level flow from the west should cause temperatures to rise quite a bit, with locations south of New England seeing highs into the 40’s. Conditions will likely remain pretty quiet for the end of the work week south of New England as well as zonal flow begins to setup in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

Mid level heights will rise substantially on Saturday morning, leading to a mainly calm and warmer day. Temperatures should be able to reach into the lower to middle 40’s during the day, with some locations south of the city likely getting into the 50’s! These temperatures will be quite a bit above-normal for the middle of winter, so enjoy them while they last!

More dry and warm conditions are expected to hold on for Sunday as a large storm begins to gather over the Rocky Mountains that will likely impact us early next week. Regardless, temperatures should be in the middle to upper 40’s once again, with mainly clear conditions expected, making it another great day to get some things done outside like getting rid of the last of the holiday decorations!

This afternoons NAM model showing a drastic change in mid level temperatures over the East during the next three days

This afternoons NAM model showing a drastic change in mid level temperatures over the East during the next three days

Large Plains Snowstorm and What It Means For Us

A large trough will be digging deep into the Rockies and southern Plains by Sunday night, which will trigger a surface low to develop over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. This system will have rich tropical moisture feeding into it from the Gulf of Mexico and as a result, a very expansive area of precipitation will fan out with the help of an impressive upper level jet. Heavy snow will likely fall over the northern Plains, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms likely across the Ozarks and Gulf Coast. This system will likely then begin to weaken a bit, but the strong moisture feed will continue to pump northward as the low moves east towards the Great Lakes. By this time the entire East coast should be in the warm sector of this system, with temperatures likely reaching into the well-above normal category once again. By Tuesday evening, we could be looking at a large cold front moving through the Northeast with associated heavy rainfall and potentially some embedded thunderstorms. There is strong model support for this system almost a week out, but we will certainly be monitoring it over the next few days, so be sure to check back for more updates!

This afternoon European ensembles showing a pretty impressive signal for heavy rain next week across much of the Northeast

This afternoon European ensembles showing a pretty impressive signal for heavy rain next week across much of the Northeast

Have a great night!

 

Steve Copertino 

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Morning Snow Winds Down This Afternoon

Good morning! An inverted trough extending from low pressure offshore has resulted in bands of snow and rain across parts of the Northeast to start the day.  The majority of steady snow so far today has been situated over parts of Northern NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley into Southern New England, where the airmass remains colder and more supportive of precipitation. Closer to the coast, enough warm air from east-southeast winds off the ocean has lead to mainly light rain with some snow mixing in at times.

As low pressure moves further east off the Northeast coast and begins to deepen, it will drag colder air in behind it via northerly winds. Precipitation may end as a period of snow for coastal areas with some light accumulations under 2″. In fact, this is occurring already as of 8am over much of the NYC Metro Area. Any accumulations will likely be relegated to colder surfaces as temperatures remain above freezing.

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